I think that is a very imporant point. (well, important if you want to discuss this game seriously)
Tony, should he make FTC, will need to remind Sarah that it was Kass’ call to vote her out, not his. It’s possible to be a very close vote, and it’s going to matter. Hell, Tony should be reminding her of that fact at every Tribal Council this point forward.
Hantz was a bullying jerk. Tony is working as hard as Russell but the vibe is night and day.
I guess it will come down to how personally the blindsided people take it. So far, I think most have taken it in the spirit of the game, imho.
If I was Sarah, I would be furious with Tony. I would be certain that he betrayed me and it was his fault that I was out of the game.
That may not be true. But I think it’s true for most people that whenever they can blame someone for their own losses, they almost always take that opportunity to do that.
I know it’s not right or fair but if I felt that I had lost a million dollars or anything close to that and I could blame it on someone, I would almost surely do that rather than accept the blame myself.
I know that is not fair. But I’m guessing it is just a human trait and it is too far imbedded in most people to do most anything else.
But IMO, you are certainly correct about RH being a bully. In addition, he also had many other negative traits.
The finale has been moved back to Wednesday this season, FYI (it will be May 21).
I don’t have a favorite this season. Tony is from my hometown, but something about him just sort of strikes me as strange; not sure what it is really, except that he does seem a bit over-animated at times and oddly over-enunciates his speech. And even though he’s been good at finding idols, his over-the-top paranoia and scrambling strategizing has me hoping he doesn’t win. Maybe I just prefer to see the underdog win, I dunno.
Of the six left, Tony obviously has the best chance of making the Final Tribal Council; I’m not sure how many votes he would get. Kass and Trish have no chance of winning (Spencer was right about that). Woo could theoretically go on an immunity run and make the Final, but I don’t see him winning. I agree Spencer and Tash would each preferentially vote for the other in the Final, and might actually have more sympathizers in the jury than Tony.
As one of the people who professed hate for Tony in last week’s thread, it’s only fair to mention that I warmed up to him a fair amount this week. I’m certainly not rooting for him, and wouldn’t mind seeing him gone, but I no longer dislike him.
Actually, a little part of me is rooting for him, truth be told. Finding that many idols earns my respect, plus the fortitude to skip food in order to keep the advantage away from your enemies, who are in a minority, while you’re the leader of the majority? Mad props for that.
Oh yeah, and with the eye candy all gone now, my dream final four:
Spencer & Tash, Tony & Kass.
I don’t disagree with your first 3 sentences. I’m just pointing out that expecting the people who you voted out to behave rationally afterwards isn’t an ideal strategy. I really think Tony was an idiot last night. He could have gotten rid of Spencer, who fully expected it, and wouldn’t hold anything personally against Tony - Tony and he have never been allied. Instead, he blindsided a member of his core alliance, without telling two other members he was doing so, a few days after swearing once again that he’d never pull another blindside against another member of his core alliance. Fool me once… and all that.
I disagree with this characterization of “honest”. Survivor is a game with two parts, strategy and social. Russell clearly proved that you don’t win by being really good at one and sucking at the other. It’s not a question of whether the other players are honest about Tony’s strategic playing, it’s a question of how each player values the balance of strategy vs. social. It would be perfectly reasonable for a jury member to be honest and give Tony credit for good strategy, but still not vote for him because that jury member feels that Tony betrayed them.
when I said I’m not a big Tony fan, I certainly didn’t mean to imply hate; on the contrary, I find his entertainment value off the charts. His personality rubs me the wrong way, he lies when he doesn’t need to, and he does gloat a fair bit, all of which would bug me if I was stuck on the island with him but is no big deal one hour a week on my TV. Also, he’s clearly getting all the breaks, which I will never be convinced is not producer-influenced (see Rob M. and Russell H.). But this season would be a dull pagonging without him, and he’s kept the awesome Tash and Spence duo alive, so I hope he makes it to the Finale, his spinning to answer critics should be epic and there’s a good chance of him cracking back on the jury which I love. He’s already guaranteed final 4, right?
So any idea how the special idol would work in this situation?
Next week’s vote total - everyone splits their vote to try to target Tony’s idol:
Tony: 2
Tasha: 2
Kass: 2
(or 3 v. 3 if you like, or 3 v. 2 v. 1)
Tony plays the regular immunity idol before the votes are read. Everyone has to revote - does Tony get to play his special idol there as well?
I thought on a re-vote you only could vote for the two that were tied. Also, with a normal idol played the votes for that person don’t count, period. So I believe it would be a 2-2 tie between Tasha and Kass and the re-vote would only be between the two of them (with them not voting).
This is true, Tony would only need to use one idol, saving the other for the next tribal when he will need it again but since the next two tribals are the only time he can use them no worries.
He might be paranoid but he’s not a complete idiot so he is in the final 4.
I think Tony’s actions make sense when you look at it through the prism of “making it to final four”.
He has 2 idols, so he just needs to survive this week’s vote and he is guaranteed a spot in final four.
The only thing that could mess that up is if Tony gets blindsided this week. So, if Tony can blindside someone else, he knows he won’t go home this week.
Normally, you have to face short-term, immediate consequences for doing that. But Tony has 2 idols, so there are no short-term consequences. And he isn’t thinking about the long-term jury consequences. So by that calculus, it’s a no-brainer for Tony to blindside someone.
In fact, blindsiding people helps Tony get to the final. If you don’t win the final immunities, you have to convince people to take you to the finals. A resume of blindsides and an argument about bitter jury votes is damn persuasive. If this season does go down to final two, then Tony has to survive twice after he slides into the final four.
So if Tony can manage to say “I blindsided most of the jury. Please take me to the finals”, then he is not only guaranteed F4, he is a lock for F2.
The special immunity idol negates that possibility.
Good point. But if he uses the special immunity this week, he is left with 1 idol and 2 eliminations until final four. So it’s not guaranteed.
Also, Tony thought Jefra might have been targeting him due to Spencer’s machinations and also what he overheard in his spy shack. There’s also been several “under-the-radar” winners in the past. So it makes sense that he wants her out.
Exactly.
After thinking about it, Tony made a ridiculously bad move considering the power of his situation. I think his paranoia (or something else) made him dramatically underestimate how locked-in he was for the final 4 (at which point he has to win immunity no matter who he’s there with at this point).
So, consider:
He voted out someone less likely to win that challenge to keep someone more likely to win it.
He pissed off an alliance full of people less likely to win that challenge to keep an alliance with Tasha who is also more likely to win it.
He added a jury member (and potentially more jury members) that will now not vote for him to keep someone who already said he would vote for him.
He voted off someone clearly not looking for idols to keep someone who clearly is (and has already found one)
He voted off someone that cannot beat him in a final TC to keep someone who can
Jefra had a golden opportunity to flip last week and didn’t do it - it was madness to think she would do it now just based on a “tip” from a desperate Spencer.
And to boot he pissed off any number of either jury members that might have voted for him (Kass and Trish in particular).
In most circumstances, making it to the F4 is a big deal and a very important goal.
But given there are only a handful of players left and T has 2 idols, he is almost already on the F4 and so it wouldn’t be worth taking any big chances or using an idol unwisely just to make it to F4. Would it?
I too think Tony made an unnecessarily risky move by keeping Spencer (who can actually beat him both at immunities and possibly a final TC) over Jefra (who can do neither). Tony has two Idols, including one that he doesn’t need to play until he knows the votes are there, so it can’t be making an easier path to the final four.
The only silver lining to his move is that it sets up him to say “I was the only one playing the game, I made every single move in this game, everyone went home because I said so” but he’s running the risk of ending up like Hantz. Jefra seems exactly like the sort of person who would vote for not-Tony out of spite, whereas Spencer and Tasha already said they would vote for Tony at the end if neither of them make it.