Huh, I stand corrected. Not sure why that got twisted around in my head…still a great move, though. I can’t believe she fell for it.
At the very end of the challenge there was a similar shot of Spencer running up to an occupied station, quickly grabbing an answer and bolting. It differed that Stephen stayed (Abi bolted) in one scene, but both Abi and Spencer were on the right side of the screen so the shot composition was almost identical.
OK, finally got caught up on these episodes - I agree there were very interesting, with some funny moments and pretty good challenges (love the “running through the jungle for answers” one - more of that please).
Could someone please explain what Stephen thought he was accomplishing by using his advantage and splitting the votes? Did he think the breakdown was: Stephen, Jeremy, Tasha, Kimmi (4 core), Spencer, and Keith (6 total) vs. Joe, Kelley, Abi (3)? And he was going to remove Joe’s vote and make it 4 for Joe, 3 for Abi, and 2 for himself (most likely)?
If so - did he then really assign Spencer and Keith (the two most likely to switch) as two of the Joe votes (the ones he most needed to go right)? Why not make his core four the Joe votes and the two outsiders the Abi votes (plus his extra vote)? That would have at least made it a tie when Spencer and Keith flipped, right?
You have it correct. In his confessional at the end of the episode he said something about “Spencer flipped.”
That would have been much smarter, stipulating that it could have gone just as badly if Joe had an idol.
With your plan, even if Keith and Spencer flip I think Stephen’s group still wins the vote. His core four plus the Joe vote would win 5-4 over Keith, Spencer, Abi and Wentworth.
Yeah, if he doesn’t split his own votes.
But let’s say he’s really worried about Joe having an idol. Couldn’t he still do the vote split on his own votes, and have it be 4-4-1 (Joe/Stephen/Abi) after Keith and Spencer flip? Hm, no, that would go 4-3 against Stephen on the re-vote, assuming Stephen’s advantage doesn’t apply (because Joe doesn’t get to vote in the tie-breaker, so Stephen wouldn’t get to use Joe’s vote or his own).
The vote-splitting just doesn’t work with those numbers. Surprised Stephen didn’t figure that out.
I do worry that now that two schemers are gone (Ciera and Stephen) the ratio of players-to-coasters is getting pretty low.
Both Jeff and Dalton Ross castigated players for dropping out for a better shelter. But honestly- they saw the Challenge- no way was anyone (but maybe Keith) gonna win vs Joe.
It’s about even, I’d say. I count Spencer, Tasha, Wentworth, and Jeremy as schemers/strategic players, and Keith, Kimmi, Abi, and Joe as the coasters/followers. Kimmi did have that one move she made against Monica, so maybe there’s some plotting in her yet. And Abi at least brings the drama even if she’s not strategic.
Agreed. Spencer, maybe in addition to Keith, had a chance to beat Joe, but why try? I think to choose to compete in that challenge you have to (1) think you have a real chance at winning and (2) really feel that you NEED to win. Only Joe met both of those criteria. Keith might have won, but he obviously didn’t need it. I think that was just Keith being Keith, though…he was sticking to the plan, gosh darn it!
And if you read Stephen’s blog, he makes it sound like the conditions were even worse that what we saw, and what we saw was complete and total misery. I don’t blame any of them one bit for choosing the improved shelter.
Joe is doing what he has to do to win. Strategy is a waste of time for him. The others would desperately love for him to approach them with a plan. It makes the blindside easier. The only reason he’s still in the game is that Fishbach is an idiot who overthinks every single thing. Joe’s only chance is to keep winning immunity.
I think you may be a little hasty calling Fishback an idiot.
Not a lot hasty. Just a little bit hasty.
It’s a very tiny difference. But he is really not an idiot. Like many people, he just got star struck in the presence of people who appear on TV. I’m not sure why otherwise rational, intelligent and respectable people just turn into a human pile of mush when they are in the presence of people who they’ve seen on TV.
I am no better. If I ever met Wentworth, I’m quite certain that I’d just start babbling like a fool and ask her for an autograph or other stupid shit that would cause her to think I was just pathetic.
But Fishback just got carried right away with himself and being on Survivor. It was quite likely the most exciting thing he will ever do in his life and he just lost his freaking mind.
“I have an advantage and it is a Game Changer - a real Game Changer. And in the spirit of honesty and integrity, I’m going to tell you all about my advantage so you will know exactly how to blindside me. Why? Because I know everything and I have a Game Changing Advantage”.
Poor Fishback. He will live with this shame for the rest of his life.
I don’t disagree with what you’re saying here. I agree, Joe’s only chance to win is to keep winning those immunities. His non-strategy strategy is working for him–for example, Fishbach said in his blog that the day of Tribal Joe was just sitting around, calm as can be, instead of scrambling. To Fishbach, that signaled that he (Joe) had an idol, which caused Fishbach to split the votes, which saved Joe.
My point, though, is that I don’t think that these players are going to respect that kind of game, even if he makes it to the finals. They want someone who pulls out everything they can to win–they’re not going to vote for someone who just “accepts their fate” the way Joe did in this last episode. Sitting next to Abi, yeah, sure…Joe wins. Sitting next to Spencer (or Jeremy or Wentworth)? Not so much.
I think the other contestants might end up regretting not taking out Joe when they had the chance. If he goes on a run and they don’t get another shot, there are going to be some people on that jury who wrote Fish’s name down.
I don’t mean that Fishbach is stupid. He just entertains every thought that passes through his head instead of discarding the bad ones immediately. He lacks common sense.
I know a lot of smart people who are like that.
I think Abi is going to make it to the finale. She’s no threat and therefore not a target, and the one talent she seems to possess is concentration and balance, which is usually the focus of the final immunity challenge.
I can’t see her getting any votes there, though.
Too clever by half.
madmonk: Agreed. And Joe needs to hope they don’t have one of those ICs where you get to break whoever’s tile you want. Everyone will gang up on Joe to make sure he doesn’t win.
I thought Terry was going to go far until his son got sick.
Yeah, Abi might be the goat that everyone takes to the end.
Did I ever mention here my vision of a game made up entirely of returning goats? You’d have Philip and Abi and every other nutter from previous seasons. It would be kind of fascinating in a car wreck kind of way.
Aren’t those usually reward challenges?
By that logic, Savage and Ciera were geniuses for not splitting their votes when they got idoled out of the game.
Re whether Fishbach made a mistake splitting the votes… he couldn’t use Joe’s vote to vote for Joe, could he?
Not only could he, but he did. But yes, he should have cast both votes for the same person. However, both for Joe would have made it only a tie. If it was fire making as a tiebreaker, Joe would have won.
It would be nice if it was 17 goats and 1 Boston Rob. Just so he could tell them exactly how he was going to vote them out as he was doing so. With the goat nodding along.