Survivor December 5 2012 "Shot into Smithereens"

Cafe Society
22

I predicted in last week’s thread that Abi would be going home this week and I was wrong. Though that* could *be construed that the Final Four Alliance is still strong. Carter would have had a much better shot at winning the next immunity than Abi, and this way they’ll almost definitely have a sitting duck to complete their plan.

But that isn’t the best plan for Lisa and Skupin. If they’re smart they’ll use Abi to blindside Denise and shoot for Malcolm after that (barring immunity challenge wins, of course). The only way either of them has a shot at the million is a final 3 of Lisa/Skupin/Abi. Lisa could actually win that Final!

I shed no tears for Carter, though he seems like a decent guy and wasn’t the worst player ever. He was just kind of a… non-player.

23

Ooooh, I just had a crazy thought. If neither Malcom nor Denise wins immunity, might he give her the idol anyway, figuring nobody will vote for him and they might try to blindside her? That would be a pretty cool move.

In any case, I think if he does win, he should protect Denise, because if she were to go, the others would obviously have their sights on him next.

24

Not that she would do it but could you imagine at TC someone like Skupin saying, “We can’t vote out Malcolm. He has an idol.” and then Denise pulls it out and says, “You mean this one?”

25

Well, if he gives it to her before the votes are cast, he’ll deserve that! :smiley:

26

I like how as soon as Malcolm won, the Skupin/Lisa/Abi/Carter foursome just put their hands in the air and said, “One of us has to go.” God’s backup plan was apparently not getting rid of Denise.

27

Actually, if Malcolm and Denise really are tight and neither of them win individual immunity, then that’s the best possible move for Malcolm to make. It takes the guesswork out of things.

Scenario A: Malcolm keeps the HII and waits until after the votes are cast. Now, he has to guess whether the other three voted for Malcolm or Denise. If he plays the HII on himself, there is a chance Denise goes home. If Malcolm gives Denise the HII, there’s a chance the others voted for Malcolm hoping for a blindside thinking Malcolm might not play his HII on himself. (Maybe to sell to a collector after the show ends)

Scenario B: Malcolm gives Denise the HII. They pretend to fight and Denise reveals she has the HII before the votes are cast. With this tactic, Malcolm guarantees no votes will be cast against Denise, so if he trusts Denise to return the HII, he can safely play it on himself with no guesswork.

note: HII can be given after the votes are cast, so I’m saying Denise returns it to Malcolm after the votes.

28

I know, right?! As soon as Malcolm won immunity, I thought to myself, “Dang, there goes Denise.” It’s like they don’t even realize Denise is there. :smack: Well, I like her so I’m glad. If Denise had been voted out and we were dealing with Carter, Abi, Lisa, Skupin and Malcolm… well, that just sounds like blah to me. Denise is awesome.

Lisa has certainly added an element of unpredictability to this season, although I find her churchyness extremely annoying most of the time. It seems she’s made it this far because she doesn’t know what she’s doing, and everyone knows she doesn’t know what she’s doing, so she’s considered easily flippable. Flippability + non-threatening-ness = getting far in Survivor.

So, the way things stand now, Abi, Skupin, Lisa and Denise are potentially up for elimination next week. My prediction (unless Denise wins immunity):

Skupin won’t vote for Abi, won’t vote for Lisa, can’t vote for Malcolm = vote for Denise.
Lisa won’t vote for Abi, won’t vote for Skupin, can’t vote for Malcolm = vote for Denise.
Abi will need to be brought in on that vote to make a majority, and I certainly don’t think she’ll have a problem voting for Denise = vote for Denise.
Malcolm will vote for Lisa.
Denise will vote for Lisa.

I don’t see a reason why Skupin and Lisa would vote differently from one another next week (plus they are besties now). Abi has been kept around this long for only one reason, so I’d say she’s preeeetty much guaranteed a spot in the final three. So, next week I’d say it’s either Denise, or if Malcolm rescues her, Lisa. I doooon’t really see Malcolm rescuing Denise though. Although it is kinda funny - when Malcolm and Denise were looking for the HII during their last day in their original tribe, they kinda found it together.

If Denise is voted out next week, Malcolm will know he’s next if he doesn’t win the following week’s immunity challenge, so that will be fun to watch.

If it all actually does shake out with Denise and then Malcolm getting voted off, we have a final three of Skupin, Lisa and Abi. (shudder) And we will know, if Abi wins, that there is no god.

29

Goddamn, 5-1 Carter. I didn’t expect Abi to line up with anyone non-Abi.

Watching this week and last week, I feel like we’re into the final slide of the the Inevitable Person Who Will Win, and it’s Malcolm. It’s not really inevitable, but it sure seems that way, and the editors are grasping at damn-near anything to get us to avoid that feeling. I won’t call it yet for Malcolm, but I’ll be very surprised if it isn’t him.

30

Kinda pissed about that… I know the preview needs to make things interesting, but they basically invented a storyline that didn’t exist. They could’ve easily just made a generic preview, or maybe something like “AND LISA PLANS TO MAKE A BIG MOVE!” “What if we blindside Malcolm?!” DUN DUN DUN.

I thought they would vote out Abi, but as soon as TC started and Carter seemed a bit pissed off about keeping “someone you can beat” over “someone you respect” I knew he was going home.

Also surprised that once Malcolm won immunity, the thought never passed their minds to vote out Denise. Then again, they don’t seem the brightest players in the world. I would’ve much rather had Carter (who can possibly beat Malcolm in an immunity challenge and is a logical player) in the game to try and make a 3-2 alliance to beat Malcolm/Denise than rely on Abi, who can’t be trusted and is useless in challenges.

Also a big LOL @ the prayer. “Please God, if it please you, bless our plan.” “I don’t think God cares about who wins Survivor or who wins a football game…” THEN WHY DID YOU JUST PRAY TO HIM TO HELP YOU WIN?!

I really hope they’re not focusing on Lisa all the time because she wins.

31

I actually said this out loud at the time (yes, my neighbors probably think I’m crazy).

Interesting that the question of whether to keep Abi around for Final Tribal seems to still be percolating around the camp. Denise’s big speech a couple Tribal Councils ago about keeping people you like and respect in the game (as opposed to those you hope will lose to you) seems to have been forgotten (by all except Carter, apparently). Now I wonder how strong the Final Four Alliance of Malcolm/Denise/Skupin/Lisa will be next week - do they get rid of Abi or one of their own?

Heads-up for time-shifters: the final episode is set for Sunday, December 16 following football, so may or may not be delayed. CBS has started to program a slight time-shift themselves, moving their Sunday night shows back half an hour (the last episode is scheduled for 8:30-10:30 ET with the 1 hour reunion immediately following), but you may want to schedule additional padding just in case.

32

You would think that but Lisa has been one of the most loyal-to-her-word players ever. Even telling Penner “I want to keep you but I promised Malcolm”

33

I espoused the opposite theory, and said at the beginning of the episode – “Carter must be the eventual winner, because he’s gotten virtually no screen time up to this point.” I guess I was wrong. :slight_smile: But I do think he wound up with less screen time per episode than any player in Survivor history. Carter, we hardly knew ye.

34

Right. The actual key to going far as a true “coattails” player is lack of ability + blinding loyalty. Lisa flipped one time, and that was after the move against her former alliance had already been made. And her “flip” still includes loyalty to Skupin. AFAICT she has never voted contrary to how she has told someone she would.

We may be seeing the epitome of the “non-playing” strategy, with the added bonus of being loyal to people that you can actually beat (hence sticking with Pete/Abi/Artis far longer than seemed prudent, and continuing to stick with Skupin) and having a TV-friendly story (and the ability to tell it - that’s why Carter got no screen time, the man sounds like an idiot when he tries to talk).

35

For the final 3:
Malcolm should want Denise and Abi
Denise should want Malcolm and Abi
Abi should want Skupin and Lisa
Lisa should want Skupin and Abi
Skupin should want Lisa and Abi
Malcolm should keep Denise to 4 so that he is not 3vs1 when it comes down to it. If he or Denise wins immunity next that would be perfect. If that happens then I predict Skupin, then Lisa.

36

With 5 Survivors left, and a normal Wednesday episode followed by the 2 hour finale (plus 1 hour reunion), there’s a strong possibility it will be down to a final 2, not final 3.

The past 5 seasons (and probably further, that’s as far as I was willing to check) the 2 hour finale has had 2 immunity challenges & 2 eliminations before the final tribal council. Assuming that the Wednesday episode will have a normal elimination, that would require the finale to have only one, which makes for an awful lot of filler. Plus, the past 7 times they had a Final Three there were 9 jurors - if it’s a Final Three this year, there will be only 8 jurors. I really think they’re going back to 2 finalists. The question is when/if the players start taking that into account.

37

Yet I’m sure they showed every interesting thing Carter did or said.

38

I said this back when RC came back as the first jury member, and it looks like this will be the case. Right now we have 6 jury members (RC, Jeff, Artis, Pete, Penner, Carter) and 5 people left in the game. So either it’s a final 3 with a jury of 8, or a final 2 with a jury of 9. As far as I can tell, we’ve had a jury of 7 or 9 every season except Fans vs Favorites.

When they jumped from final 2 to final 3, did they reveal that there was going to be a final 3 ahead of time or was it a surprise to the players?

I’m really curious to know what they do in the case of a tie in the Final Council…

39

except when he went up to Penner and said, “Isn’t it OUR time, Mr. Hand?”