Survivor December 5 2012 "Shot into Smithereens"

This has been a pretty good season, though I do not see it rising to the level of an all-time great.

I’m not surprised at all that they…well, did what they did tonight. I won’t spoiler in the opening post, but I pretty much saw the vetoed player before the votes were revealed.

I was worried that they might have shifted their target to Denise once Malcolm won immunity. She is the one most closely aligned with him after all.

Abi needs to go.

I really liked Denise to start but she seems almost irrelevant now. The only times they show her is when she is ripping on Abi.

Pity Lisa didnt have her change of heart last episode. She cant do much any more.

I still like Denise, and hope that she wins. Her ‘ripping on Abi’ is fairly mild, I think. She tries to explain to Abi Normal what she (Abi) does that annoys people. Unfortunately, Abi isn’t listening.

So the five remaining players are Abi Normal, Denise, Lisa, Malcolm, and Skupin. Abi and Malcolm both have ‘use or lose’ HIIs, so I presume they’ll both play them at the next TC. That means Skupin, Denise, or Lisa will be voted out. Both Malcolm and Denise have played a good game. They’ve both proven themselves as formidable physical threats, their joint strategy has so far been successful, and everyone likes them. Since Malcolm will presumably play his idol, Denise is the logical choice to vote out next week.

Denise says she wants to stand next to ‘deserving’ players at the FTC. That’s risky if she wants to win a megabuck, but she wants a ‘fair fight’. For all of his protestations that voting out Abi would be good for his sanity and his stated sentiments that he too wants a ‘fair fight’, I think Malcolm is playing to win. I think he really does want Abi in the FTC. The final IC often an endurance challenge. Denise has the perfect body for an endurance challenge. She’s too big a threat for the others to let her stay.

The preview makes it seem like Denise is in trouble. Based on the above, she needs to win immunity. If she doesn’t, she’s the obvious choice. Only… Malcolm knows that he has a lock on the million if Denise is gone. So does everyone else. If he votes out Denise, what’s to stop Abi, Skupin, and Lisa from voting him out the next round? Malcolm needs Denise around a little longer. So I think Skupin or Lisa will be voted out next week. (I could be wrong of course, and the preview isn’t a red herring.) Skupin has been wishy-washy on his votes. He seems easily convinced to switch votes half the time. Lisa has been fairly consistently ‘sticking by her word’, only she was gunning for Malcolm this week. Which to choose…? Abi dislikes Lisa more than she does Skupin. OTOH, I think she knows that Lisa is not a physical threat. I think Denise thinks Lisa has not played a strong game, and going by Denise’s stated comments about wanting to stand with strong players at the end I think she might vote Lisa off. So I’m going to say Denise votes for Lisa. Malcolm votes for Lisa, since he’d rather stand by Abi in the Final Three. Skupin votes for Lisa because (assuming that Malcolm decides he needs Denise around for another vote) she’s the only option. Abi? She’ll vote for either Lisa or Denise because she dislikes them. But it Malcolm, Denise, and Skupin vote for Lisa, Lisa is going home.

Have I ever been right? I don’t know. Probably not. Assuming Denise does not win immunity, Malcolm may decide that her physical prowess – especially in a potential endurance challenge – is more of a risk than having her ‘protection’ is a benefit.

Abi already played her hidden immunity idol in episode 10 and Pete went home. She made up a story about having a second, hidden immunity idol (she said there were secondary instructions to find an idol in her auction advantage clue, which she conveniently ripped up). She doesn’t have one and no one believes she has one.

Lisa can go home ASAP and take her unappealing religion with her. I hate her more than Abi.

I don’t remember her playing it but you are indeed correct. So much for my guess.

Abi does not have a HII, she’s played hers to save herself when Pete got voted out. (a mistake IMO. She may have been able to vote for Pete herself and save her HII) It would be useful right now.

She keeps saying she has one, just to try and deflect some votes. But no one’s buying it.

This may be the year that a villain wins it. If Abi makes it to the end, it will be due to the final 4 people being betrayed. Maybe enough to vote for her. (Probably not Denise or Lisa) But I think she has Artiss and Pete. She possibly has Carter and Jeff. SO if Malcolm or Skupin are on the jury with Abi stilll in, they may be pissed enough to vote for her. All she would need is one of these votes: Skupin, Malcolm, Penner (who is so random he might do it for kicks) Plus expect her FT speech to be all ‘woe is me’.

The previews was a total red herring. Malcolm’s brother was supposed to let something out of the bag. He hardly said anything.

Skupin’s kid is another case of the Apple not falling far from the tree. Another Klutz.

“Survivor Jesus looks like Malcolm and plays like Carter.” LOL

I remember now. I even commented on it after it happened. :smack:

I plead a busy life, and details like this get lost in the rush.

Question: Malcolm wins immunity next week. Since he needs to use his HII, who does he give his second immunity to?

Denise: partners to the end as promised.
AbiNormal: She either goes with him to final 3 or he gets her jury vote
Lisa: Similar outcome to giving AbiNormal immunity but for different reasons
Skupen: Why?

E. None of the above. He puts it on Ebay and some collector pays him $100,000.

I think if Malcolm gave immunity to Abi, almost all the other players would hate him for it so much he’d lose their votes.

ISTM that he should decide last second. Listen to all the scrambling and TC talk and only give it away if he doesn’t like who he thinks is going to get voted out.

Buuuuut, if he could secretly give it to her then everyone might think “Holy crap! She wasn’t bluffing” when she plays it.

Best for Malcolm not to win Immunity so as to keep the target on his back as small as possible. And use his HII for himself. That way he doesn’t have to give it to Denise. If Denise wins immunity he gets to keep his greatest ally around till final four. If someone else wins then he has a chance to blindside Denise.

So with two immunities and guarantied going to final four, how would Malcolm have a target on his back more than anyone else?

Also, does anyone think Abi sees herself as a brilliant player and thinking her bluff worked?

That would be completely delusional.

Oh, wait…

I think Malcolm is seen as the one to beat if anyone else is to win. Next week is the last time he can play his HII so there is no reason for him to push hard to win Immunity. It would only make him look stronger.

Frankly I’d be surprised if she doesn’t see it that way. Unless she is called out on it and put on the spot.

I have been surprised by how open the TC have been this season since the merge. I blame Abi for this. If she makes it to final TC her rant will probably turn even Pete against her.

Is that because she is baggage? Oh wait! HAS baggage.*

*I suspect she is thinking about her clothes bag at camp so yes she has baggage.