That only works as long as he has numbers in his alliance to back it up.
Say they merge 5-5 (and that’s being generous, I bet La Mina sends someone home next week for a 6-4 merge).
Terry pulls his trick -> Casaya votes out Austin -> Terry pulls his trick -> Casaya votes out Nick -> Terry pulls his trick -> Casaya votes out Sally -> Terry pulls his trick -> Casaya votes Terry and forces him to use the idol, Dan goes home instead -> Unless Terry runs the immunity table, he gets sixth place
I also realize that this requires someone from La Mina to jump, but Sally is very aware of her position in her tribe and I think it would take very little convincing for the girls to sway her after a merge.
When the idol is used, the second place vote getter is voted off.
If they go to the merge 5-5 or 6-4 it may be in Terry’s advantage to keep it a secret, let them vote for him. That way, the vote is 5/6 for Terry, 5/4 for Aras or Shane. Then Terry pops out the immunity idol and Aras or Shane go packing.
Sally’s incompetence has been a bane to her tribe. But she is benefitting from beauty amnesia; nobody seems to remember her fish juggling or spear fumbling.
If other folks are entitled to sit around not contributing anything, then Bruce is entitled to build a Zen garden with his free time. It may be “useless” to the others, but necessary to Bruce to keep his sanity as being in that tribe is awfully stressful. I’m sure Bruce is contributing to his tribe as much as anyone else there, and it’s unfair to ask him to work nonstop like a robot. That said, he really isn’t playing the game of Survivor very well.
That was a lot of fish. I totally called it, during the challenge, when I saw they were getting eight fish, that it would be way too much meat. Even if they had been able to cook it, it would have gone bad before they could eat it all.
No, because unless someone in your alliance wins immunity, the vote will be a tie. And, at some point you are going to have to sacrifice someone in your non-Terry alliance in order to vote him off. Why take the chance of being that someone?
And, why would anyone not join Terry’s alliance, knowing he has that trump card? He could effectively rule the roost. Any alliance with him in it is going to be extra strong, as long as it’s public knowledge that he has the idol. He should easily be able to recruit enough members that he can call the shots every time for who gets voted off.
Terry can only use the idol once, correct?
Correct.
Yes. That’s why he should tell everyone he has it. Why risk them voting for him, since he’d then have to use it and lose it. Then, he starts building his alliance around that (if he doesn’t have one already), and coasts thru til the end. At any point in time it’s just too risky or too wasteful to vote for him.
On the other hand if there is a strong alliance against Terry they can force him to use the idol and then vote him off the next time he doesn’t win immunity.
Yeah, but that has to one helluva strong alliance. And, someone has to be the sacrifice. The weaker players would just defect to Terry’s alliance. Tell me, why would anyone not join Terry’s alliance? You’d have to be stupid not to.
Assume they go to the merge at 6-4. Terry announces he has the idol.
Vote out one of Terry’s alliance-mates, now up 6-3.
Vote out another one of Terry’s alliance-mates, now up 6-2.
Now, four vote for Terry and two vote for Terry’s only alliance-mate. Assume Terry and his only mate vote for one of you, so when Terry gets the four votes and is forced to use his immunity, it goes to a tiebreaker between the two guys who got two votes each. (one yours and one his)
So, even with perfect play (good friggin’ luck with this motley crew,) I’d say it still would be a fairly safe bet for Terry to announce it publicly at the merge. It’s even more favorable for Terry if they go 5-5, but not by much.
Exactly. I’d sacrifice someone to force Terry to give up his trump card. If that happens, does Zippy return to Exile Island and become available to everyone again?
Yes, but remember, we are dealing with people who are on a reality show, you know? People like Shane, who didn’t quit smoking until the very second he was dropped on the island, or Cirie, who admitted she is afraid of leaves. I strongly suspect that most of these people can’t find their own butts with both hands, a flashlight, and a map. So I suspect long-term strategic planning is something of a lost cause with these bozos.
I’m with PunditLisa: I pretty much hate everyone on the island except for Terry, and also Austin, inexplicably. But as I said before, I am a sucker for Umbros. (Yeah, I don’t get it either.)
You’re looking at this too statically. Let’s say the merge happens as you see it. Terry not only announces he has the idol, but points out that sooner or later someone in the other alliance is going to get booted, and he’s the one who’ll decide who that is. Join his alliance, and you’re safer. Plus, do you really want to risk having Terry win an IC and then getting to choose TWICE who gets voted off?
Terry is the smartest guy on the island. He has to have figured this out. But no matter how you look at it, he has to make it public that he has the idol. Why waste having to use it?
I thought it looked like he was checking to see if the Hershey Express had already left the station.
But I don’t understand, who’s joining Terry’s alliance?
They can’t all join his alliance. And we already know Sally is not happy with her place in her current alliance.
The idol will help Terry, but he’s not Tom, the man’s spent too much time on Exile Island to have any real allies. And Dan will drop him the first chance he gets because he was “betrayed” at the Ruth Marie vote.
He’s got Austin for sure, and I wouldn’t count out Dan. Why would the other alliane what him?
But suppose Terry just says to everyone after the merge: “I’ve got the idol, and I’m putting together an alliance. The first 3 folks to raise their hands are in. Any takers? If you’re not with me, I’ll have you in my sights as soon as I’m forced to use the idol. But if you’re with me, you’re safe.”
Precisely. I was torn between sympathy and hilarity. 
It depends on where Terry thinks he is with his own tribe and assuming the tribes merge 5/5, I think he keeps it secret for the first vote and then reveals it after deliberately not winning the immunity challenge. Casaya votes for Terry, La Mina votes for Shane/Aras, idol comes out and now La Mina cleans up the remainder although Sally is still a risk.
If they merge 6/4 it gets a little tricky, but if they can get one person to switch up (Bruce or Cerie), back to 5/5 and the strategy works again. It does require that he reveal the thing to his own tribe though.