The last NYT/Sienna numbers: for Biden +6 Arizona, +3 Florida, +6 PA and +11 Wisconsin.
Solid numbers and the AZ poll is particularly useful since there haven’t been too many high quality polls there. AZ now represents a solid plan B for Biden if he loses PA especially because polling errors in those two states are relatively less correlated (will require a NE-2 win but that is also likely).
There was an article in the Sunday paper, talking about the Midwest. It started off quoting a farmer in Wisconsin who had voted for Trump in 16. He said something like Bill Clinton had been president for 8 years, and Hillary was Secretary of State and Senator. He’d had enough of Clintons, and he voted for Trump to vote for change. In his words, Trump sure changed things, but not for the better, and now he was voting for Biden because he is not Trump.
I can understand and respect that kind of reasoning. And when the better part of me tries to get me to think that the majority of people are not ignorant jerks, I suspect there might be A LOT of somewhat reasonable people who supported Trump 4 years ago for similar reasons, who are likely hesitant to give him another 4. I’d think there are more of THAT sort, than new converts to Trump’s hardcore supporters. But what do I know?
A slightly worrisome Emerson poll out of Nevada has Biden only up by 2. This was enough to pull the 538 Biden chances back down to 89 (from 90 yesterday).
And I’m one of them, a new resident.
It’s kind of funny, when I first moved here I was surprised at both how diverse and liberal my neighborhood seemed to be. Then I realized it’s because they only started development in the neighborhood - a mix of rental apartments, condos, townhouses and private homes - about 15 years ago and most of the homes are way newer than that.
So there are no long term residents, pretty much everyone in the neighborhood relocated from somewhere else. Even outside of my neighbors, anecdotally I know lots of people that relocated recently.
Election Day will be here in pretty much 24 hours.
We will have a strong idea where this election lands in more or less 48 hours.
Hang on JKellyMap!
You are just like me when I see such polls. I saw an article earlier today, about a poll from Iowa, which Trump won, that worried some Democrats. Polls might be underestimating Trump’s support there, and therefore it is because of the shy Trump voter and OMG Biden might lose Iowa, and because Iowa voters are exactly the same as Pennsylvania voters it means Biden will lost Pennsylvania
As Iowa goes, so goes the nation.
Yesterday I promised myself I would not pay attention to the latest “worrisome” polls. One time my Dad said about my Mom, she will worry about anything, and if she doesn’t have anything to worry about, she will worry about that.
Well, we can’t stop doing the same. But in any world other than a Phillip K Dick or Stephen King novel*, Biden will win.
*coincidence that a new version of The Stand will start next month?
Thank you, friends. I should pay little notice to any one poll. No point in getting worked up at this stage. The ejection is happening now, and it’s looking quite likely that Biden will win — not a certainty, but more likely than Clinton’s chances four years ago.
Let the adventure proceed.
ETA: I noticed a typo — actually, let it be!
I’m confident Biden will win, but he needs to win bigly - no room for ratfuckery, but also sweep the Senate and as many State legislatures and Governorships as possible.
Well said.
Assuming Tue goes off without a revolution or a coup, whatever will we all be posting about come Thu after the congratulations and sighs of relief have all been posted?
ISTM easily 50% of the board’s traffic is about the election or about Trump.
Sadly, it’s a looooooooong time from tomorrow to January 21, and it’s only going to get worse until then.
Ohpleasepleasepleasepleaseplease…
I think it’s still safe to say the GOP won’t let Biden win Texas.
I did find it interesting though that as of this past weekend, pollsters estimate a million Black people in Georgia have already voted - which is almost 300,000 more than voted in 2016, period. Since Black people break for the Democratic candidate like nine or ten to one, that is quite a substantial boost for Biden over Clinton’s 2016 levels that might actually mean Biden has a better chance there than I thought.
OMG, now those 127,000 drive-in ballots getting thrown out or now might actually decide the state…
Wait, what?
Holy crap. It’s like Mexico’s presidential election of 1988.
From Wikipedia (note that in 2000, Mexico finally enjoyed a free, fair, smooth election, while the US that same year…did not):
“During the parallel vote tabulation, the secretary of the interior said that the telephone network was saturated, characterizing it as “a breakdown of the system.”[6] Former president Miguel de la Madrid later admitted that this “breakdown” was a fabrication.[7] One observer said, “For the ordinary citizen, it was not the network but the Mexican political system that had crashed.”[8] Although early results of the parallel vote tabulation had indicated Cuauhtemoc Cárdenas was winning, when the official results were announced, Salinas was said to have eked out a narrow victory.”
“Years later, former president Miguel de la Madridadmitted in an autobiography that there was not yet any official vote count when the PRI declared Salinas as the winner. In 1991, the ruling PRI and the opposition PAN approved a motion to burn all the ballots, therefore removing all evidence of the fraud.[7] A 2019 study in the American Political Science Review found “evidence of blatant alterations” in approximately one third of the tallies in the election.[9]”
FWIW I’ve heard it stated by various analysts that the consistent thread through the SCOTUS election rulings has been a deference to state rules and rulings unless some unstated very high bar is breached. A federal level reversing the state ruling would, by that analysis, likely fail at the SCOTUS level.
Some conservatives are pushing an insane interpretation that because the Constitution charges “state legislatures” with prescribing the manner of holding elections, then literally any voting procedure that is not specifically directed by the legislature is unconstitutional. This flies in the face of centuries of practice and common sense, whereby legislatures have established the standards that local authorities must adhere to in conducting elections, but left leeway for locals to tailor their practices as long as they fall within those standards. Under the more extreme interpretation, my vote should be thrown out because the election official offered me hand sanitizer before voting even though state law does not specify that as part of the voting procedure.
Federal judge rules that the votes are NOT disallowed.
Could be interesting in Texas.
538 has frozen their forecast and has Trump at 10%.
Not much news in the last day’s polls. Trump’s best number was a Marist poll with him even in Arizona. OTOH there was a Quinnipiac poll +5 for Biden in Florida.