A good CNN overview, 100 days out: US election 2020 week ahead: Donald Trump is in dire straits | CNN Politics
Good numbers for Biden out of Florida today. Check out Fivethirtyeight for the story.
Linky?
Anyway, I love that polls show Texas in play. Sure, I doubt it will turn Blue, but if it’s in play the GOP/trump is gonna have to spend millions and much time to keep it red.
Speaking of Texas, Greg Abbott extends (!) early voting:
Recent state level polling.
| State | Dates | Polster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 7/14/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Marist College | 826 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| Arizona | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | SSRS | 873 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Florida | 7/16/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 924 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 13% |
| Florida | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | SSRS | 880 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| Michigan | 7/18/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 756 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 9% |
| Michigan | 7/22/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 754 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% |
| Michigan | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | SSRS | 927 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 12% |
| Michigan | 7/21/2020 - 7/24/2020 | YouGov | 1156 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 6% |
| Minnesota | 7/18/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 776 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 13% |
| Minnesota | 7/23/2020 - 7/25/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1129 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 7/14/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Marist College | 882 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Ohio | 7/21/2020 - 7/24/2020 | YouGov | 1211 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 1% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/15/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Spry Strategies | 700 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/18/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 793 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 11% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/22/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 1006 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 3% |
| Texas | 7/16/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 880 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 1% |
| Texas | 7/16/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Spry Strategies | 750 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 5% |
| Wisconsin | 7/15/2020 - 7/20/2020 | Spry Strategies | 700 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 1% |
| Wisconsin | 7/22/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 796 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 8% |
As an aside, I’m sure not an anti-vaccer type, but I will be extremely skeptical of any vaccine coming from this administration. First off, because I don’t trust them. Secondly, because even absent that, I’d be leery of any product approved that fast. I’m old enough to remember the “Swine Flu” vaccine debacle.
Biden is eating into Trump’s Rust Belt base: 2020 poll: Biden is eating into Trump's Rust Belt base | CNN Politics
Not familiar with Spry Strategies but those poll results sure do look like outliers. Do they have a known lean one way or the other? Anyone know what kind of track record they have? I mean both Fox News and Quinnipiac both show very different result in TX and PA than Spry and Quinnipiac at least is know to have a GOP lean. I would suspect Fox News polls do as well but I seem to recall they are decently respectable.
Franklin & Marshall and Spry Strategies are both rated B/C. Fox is rated A-.
Speaking of 538, I noticed they haven’t started their predictions yet. Not even a mention of when they might start their map. If I recall correctly, by this time in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections they already had their predictions out. Have any of you all heard about whether or not they will be making predictions this year, and if so, when?
I would guess 538 will wait until after the conventions before doing predictions. The conventions have been pushed back this year due to the usual reason everything is delayed or cancelled this year.
On their week-ago podcast, Nate Silver mentioned that the model was 99% done, but he didn’t feel there was demand to rush it out early this year. That doesn’t really answer the question, but I would guess we’d see it sometime in the next couple of weeks.
538 doesn’t make predictions, they give probabilities. That’s why it’s such a great racket.
I don’t get it. Probabilities are exactly the right call. Why would they do anything else?
Don’t they do both? If I recall correctly, last time they had 3 maps. There was a polls only map, which included their analysis of the polls such as partisan lean and how those polls have done in previous elections. Then there was the polls plus map that included Nate’s “secret sauce” formula. Yes, this would give probability, such as Clinton has a 50% change to win PA or whatever, but the probabilities are a prediction in the same way that the weatherman is making a prediction when he says there is a 50% chance of rain tomorrow. Then there was an if the election was held today map, although I don’t recall if that used just the polls or if it included his formula.
That’s not a bad analogy.
Except if the weather forecast says 50%, that’s also a probability, not a prediction. It’s based on any given point in the forecast area.
But if the weatherman says, “It’s going to rain tomorrow” or "Boston’s going to get 8 - 12 inches, that’s a prediction. If it doesn’t rain, or Boston gets a dusting, he has nowhere to hide.
Nate just says, “OK let’s all geek out over the polls or the model.”
That’s right, if you state it in probabilities, you can never be wrong.
If the result matches the probability you calculated, everybody says YOU were right, and you let them.
If the result doesn’t match the probability you calculated, you say GIGO.
Great racket.
Don’t be too sure about that. I can see the camo crowd occupying a statehouse with a Dem governor and/or legislature again.
They already did it once over masks and haircuts. What do you think their mood will be like when they feel like their balls are about to get cut off.