Probabilities are predictions. If Nate’s model says “x has an 80%” chance of winning, then in he is predicting that if 5 elections were held, x would win 4 of them. The fact that only one election is going to be held makes ascertaining the accuracy of his predictions more complicated, but it doesn’t make them not predictions.
I’m liking the electoral distribution curve from the Princeton Election Consortium.. Also check out their electoral maps- even if Putin’s Bitch outperforms polling data by 3%, he still loses to Biden 319-169.
You can compare probabilistic forecasts in a number of ways to determine which is more accurate. One such way is the Brier score.
I run a (very unpopular) monthly probabilistic forecast contest right here on the SDMB that uses Brier scores… July 2020 probabilistic senate prediction competition.
The August one will be open in a couple weeks. I look forward to your entry demonstrating that you can never be wrong.
IMO, it’s only a racket to people who don’t understand what polling analysis is. If you do, then it’s obvious that 538 is pursuing the only possible respectable path. Anything else is pundit blather. Or worse, internet blather.
Recent state polling. 13 weeks to go!
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Morning Consult | 609 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 58% | R + 22% |
| Alaska | 7/23/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 885 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 6% |
| Arizona | 7/19/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 858 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 8% |
| Arizona | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 908 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 7% |
| Arizona | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 365 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% |
| California | 7/21/2020 - 7/27/2020 | University of California, Berkeley | 6756 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 67% | Donald Trump 28% | D + 39% |
| Colorado | 7/23/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 891 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 13% |
| Colorado | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 616 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 13% |
| Florida | 7/19/2020 - 7/21/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1121 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 7% |
| Florida | 7/20/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| Florida | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 3760 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| Florida | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 685 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 3% |
| Georgia | 7/23/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 722 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 1337 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 7/23/2020 - 7/27/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even |
| Georgia | 7/23/2020 - 7/27/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| Georgia | 7/23/2020 - 7/27/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 3% |
| Georgia | 7/28/2020 - 7/31/2020 | YouGov | 1109 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 1% |
| Iowa | 7/23/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 1118 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| Kentucky | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Morning Consult | 793 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 59% | R + 24% |
| Maine | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Colby College | 888 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 12% |
| Maine | 7/23/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 962 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 11% |
| Maine CD-1 | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Colby College | 425 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 20% |
| Maine CD-2 | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Colby College | 449 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 3% |
| Massachusetts | 7/17/2020 - 7/20/2020 | MassINC Polling Group | 797 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 23% | D + 32% |
| Michigan | 7/19/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 811 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 12% |
| Michigan | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 1320 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% |
| Michigan | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 413 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 7/28/2020 - 7/29/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 876 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
| Minnesota | 7/22/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 1218 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% |
| Minnesota | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 662 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 3% |
| Montana | 7/23/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 917 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% |
| Montana | 7/31/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Emerson College | 584 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 54% | R + 9% |
| New Hampshire | 7/16/2020 - 7/28/2020 | University of New Hampshire | 1893 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 13% |
| North Carolina | 7/19/2020 - 7/21/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 919 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 7/22/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | 735 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 2% |
| North Carolina | 7/23/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 884 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 1504 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even |
| North Carolina | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 284 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 7/28/2020 - 7/31/2020 | YouGov | 1129 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% |
| Ohio | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 1741 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 3% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/19/2020 - 7/21/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1016 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 2092 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 8% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/20/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Franklin & Marshall College | 667 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 9% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 382 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% |
| South Carolina | 7/15/2020 - 7/20/2020 | ALG Research | 591 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% |
| South Carolina | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Morning Consult | 741 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 5% |
| Texas | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 2685 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 2% |
| Texas | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Morning Consult | 2576 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% |
| Virginia | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 1156 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 11% |
| Washington | 7/22/2020 - 7/27/2020 | SurveyUSA | 534 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 62% | Donald Trump 28% | D + 34% |
| Wisconsin | 7/19/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 742 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 10% |
| Wisconsin | 7/17/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Morning Consult | 809 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 392 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 5% |
Man - those polls are WILD.
Biden is at least even if not leading big in every poll for every battleground state, and he’s even or slightly ahead in several larger traditionally red states. The only places Trump leads is in smaller shithole states (to use Trumps adjective).
Not getting confident, but sure is nice to see. Hope the trend continues over the next 3 months. The news in the local paper consistently described Trump’s campaign w/ words like “struggling”, “disarray”, etc. Hopefully, that is not only accurate, but will persuade undecideds to go w/ a likely winner - Biden (as I understand many undecideds tend to do.)
Also good as early voting nears. Folk will vote NOW, and can’t change their vote no matter what happens later.
Oh, the conspiracy theories. I’ve heard (from the exterminator) how all this COVID stuff will disappear after the election.
Not just your “O.” Fact.
One thing that concerns me is that 538’s national conglomerate poll shows Trump gaining on Biden recently, albeit just a bit. Given how bad Trump has been recently I can’t fathom why that would happen. If Trump is somehow able to (slightly) reign himself in will we have a repeat of 2016?
I think part of this is that it’s August. People, even during a pandemic, are doing August-type things, and that doesn’t necessarily mean paying attention to politics or current events. In a few weeks, when school is set to start, look out. Because when the first kids or teachers are diagnosed with COVID after school starts…Then when the first district-wide outbreak happens…Then when the first several districts shut down in-person learning, and parents have no way to teach/watch their kids while also working…Then when the first teacher dies…Then when the first students die…Let’s just say people will remember how Trump and DeVos were pushing hard for in-person schooling, while offering no federal support to make it happen effectively and safely.
The Trump campaign is doing a lot of door-to-door outreach, whereas the Biden campaign is doing everything online or via phone. It’s possible that is having/will have at least some effect on the polls.
Didn’t anyone in the campaign think through the implications of door-to-door outreach during a pandemic? Your supporters are likely to talk to you longer, thus increasing the risk of exposure to the virus, so you might actually be killing off the people most likely to vote your way.
This should go in the Stupid Republican Ideas Pit thread.
The irony of it is that back in 2016, lots of people (including me) noted the inferiority of Trump’s ground game with respect to Clinton, and deemed it yet one more reason he couldn’t possibly win. Weird to see the situation reversed now.
This week’s state level polls. Twelve weeks to e-day.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 1215 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 2% |
| Arizona | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 1215 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 3% |
| Arizona | 8/3/2020 - 8/4/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 603 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 8/5/2020 - 8/8/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1013 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 1% |
| Florida | 7/21/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics | 811 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 43% | Even |
| Georgia | 7/23/2020 - 7/31/2020 | HIT Strategies | 400 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 4% |
| Georgia | 8/6/2020 - 8/8/2020 | SurveyUSA | 623 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 2% |
| Hawaii | 7/27/2020 - 7/30/2020 | MRG Research | 975 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 29% | D + 27% |
| Indiana | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Morning Consult | 900 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 38% | Donald Trump 55% | R + 17% |
| Iowa | 7/27/2020 - 7/30/2020 | RMG Research | 500 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 41% | R + 1% |
| Iowa | 7/30/2020 - 7/31/2020 | David Binder Research | 200 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
| Iowa | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 1101 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 44% | R + 2% |
| Iowa | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 1101 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 46% | R + 1% |
| Iowa | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Monmouth University | 401 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 3% |
| Iowa | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Monmouth University | 401 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 2% |
| Iowa | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Monmouth University | 401 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even |
| Kansas | 8/5/2020 - 8/6/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 864 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 7% |
| Kentucky | 7/25/2020 - 7/29/2020 | Bluegrass Voters Coalition | 3020 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 52% | R + 7% |
| Kentucky | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 909 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 9% |
| Maine | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 866 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 7% |
| Maine | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 866 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 10% |
| Maine | 7/27/2020 - 8/2/2020 | RMG Research | 500 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 11% |
| Maine | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 807 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 15% |
| Maine CD-1 | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 392 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 30% | D + 31% |
| Maine CD-2 | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 382 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 45% | R + 1% |
| Michigan | 7/25/2020 - 7/30/2020 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 11% |
| Michigan | 7/30/2020 - 7/31/2020 | David Binder Research | 200 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 10% |
| Michigan | 7/27/2020 - 8/6/2020 | YouGov | 761 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 4% |
| Minnesota | 7/30/2020 - 7/31/2020 | David Binder Research | 200 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 18% |
| Minnesota | 8/8/2020 - 8/10/2020 | Emerson College | 733 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 49% | D + 2% |
| Nebraska CD-1 | 7/16/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Strategies 360 | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 2% |
| North Carolina | 7/21/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics | 809 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 7/23/2020 - 7/31/2020 | HIT Strategies | 400 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 37% | D + 10% |
| North Carolina | 7/30/2020 - 7/31/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 934 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 1170 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Data for Progress | 1170 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 8/6/2020 - 8/7/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 750 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| Ohio | 7/21/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics | 805 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 2% |
| Oklahoma | 7/29/2020 - 7/30/2020 | DFM Research | 572 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 36% | Donald Trump 56% | R + 20% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/17/2020 - 7/22/2020 | Hodas & Associates | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 6% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/21/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics | 809 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 1% |
| Pennsylvania | 7/27/2020 - 8/6/2020 | YouGov | 742 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 9% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/4/2020 - 8/7/2020 | YouGov | 1211 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
| South Carolina | 7/30/2020 - 8/3/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 914 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 42% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 5% |
| Texas | 8/1/2020 - 8/5/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1015 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 6% |
| Utah | 7/27/2020 - 8/1/2020 | RMG Research | 1000 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 31% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 19% |
| Wisconsin | 7/22/2020 - 7/27/2020 | Hodas & Associates | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 14% |
| Wisconsin | 7/30/2020 - 7/31/2020 | David Binder Research | 200 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 11% |
| Wisconsin | 7/27/2020 - 8/6/2020 | YouGov | 734 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
| Wisconsin | 8/4/2020 - 8/7/2020 | YouGov | 994 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 6% |
Thanks. Still too damn close, but an encouraging poll out of Ohio!
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html
Perhaps the biggest state-level change in Aug has been a dramatic tightening in NC from a Biden lead of 4-5 points to even. Arizona has also tightened a bit. Not a huge deal but these are two nice bonus states which would give Biden more routes to victory.
The good news for him is that his leads in Florida and PA remain solid.
NC and AZ tightening doesn’t surprise me, as my monthly prediction lists to this thread (it is that a different thread?) indicate.
What does surprise me is Minnesota leaning a little more Republican than Wisconsin, according to the latest 538 aggregations. (They’re both very much swing states). I live in Wisconsin, just two miles from the Minnesota border, and there’s a bit of hipper-than-thou good-natured (and partly deserved) smugness among some in Minnesota that they’ve voted reliably Dem in recent elections, while Wisconsin has been notoriously…unreliable.
So, a part of me is happy to see Wisconsin as slightly bluer than Minnesota (this week, anyway).
But that joy is quickly squelched by a sudden fear that Minnesota could actually go red in November (!!!)…and of that happens, we are all in deep doo-doo.
(Since Minnesota is ground zero for George Floyd’s death and its aftermath, might this reflect some traction of the “support the police — law and order” theme we’ve heard from Republican supporters and candidates? I have no idea.)
An interesting analysis, looking at history and suggesting Trump is doing worse than the typical Republican President would under these circumstances: Election 2020: A big sign Trump is a weak candidate | CNN Politics
Nate Silver’s model is up! And he gives Trump a 28% chance of winning which is terrifyingly close to his model’s final percentage in 2016.
This piece provides some more analysis and it makes a pretty persuasive case that there is still a way to go and Covid adds a lot of uncertainty.
My own subjective sense of the election is still closer to the Economist model which now predicts 11% for Trump. Trump’s numbers have remained remarkably stable through his Presidency and also his head-to-head against Biden in marked contrast to 2016. I am skeptical that there are enough persuadable voters left for him to win. The Harris choice also cuts some of Biden’s risk and provides him additional insurance if there is more rioting before the election.
Yeah… but I was a little surprised and disappointed Biden wasn’t doing better in N.C.