As you say, the model accounts for a lot of possible uncertainty. However, they note that this is because of how much time is left. If the election were tomorrow, Biden’s chances would be over 90%, they say.
Yes it’s a judgement call about how much change is likely till the election. My sense is not much. I think Trump’s numbers are baked in and Covid is slowing down the pace of the campaign to Biden’s advantage. I think there could well be a steady fall in Covid cases and a relatively less bad economy but I strongly doubt there is enough time for a fundamental recovery by Election day.
Tuesday is state level polling day! Eleven weeks until E-day!
Massachusetts might go blue.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 8/2/2020 - 8/4/2020 | OnMessage Inc. | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 3% |
| Arizona | 8/7/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Change Research | 428 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 1% |
| Arizona | 8/8/2020 - 8/10/2020 | Emerson College | 661 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 7% |
| California | 8/9/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1904 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 25% | D + 36% |
| California | 8/12/2020 - 8/12/2020 | SurveyUSA | 500 A | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 56% | Donald Trump 28% | D + 28% |
| Florida | 8/2/2020 - 8/4/2020 | OnMessage Inc. | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 49% | Even |
| Florida | 8/7/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Change Research | 469 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% |
| Georgia | 8/14/2020 - 8/15/2020 | Landmark Communications | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 3% |
| Kansas | 8/5/2020 - 8/9/2020 | SurveyUSA | 1202 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 41% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 7% |
| Maine | 7/28/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Critical Insights | 500 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 44% | Donald Trump 36% | D + 8% |
| Maine | 7/28/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Critical Insights | 453 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 7% |
| Maine CD-1 | 7/28/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Critical Insights | 250 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 33% | D + 16% |
| Maine CD-2 | 7/28/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Critical Insights | 249 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 38% | D + 1% |
| Massachusetts | 7/31/2020 - 8/7/2020 | YouGov | 500 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 61% | Donald Trump 28% | D + 33% |
| Massachusetts | 8/6/2020 - 8/9/2020 | MassINC Polling Group | 501 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 63% | Donald Trump 27% | D + 36% |
| Michigan | 7/30/2020 - 8/4/2020 | GQR Research (GQRR) | 1245 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 9% |
| Michigan | 8/7/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Change Research | 413 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 5% |
| Mississippi | 7/30/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 10% |
| North Carolina | 8/7/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Change Research | 491 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| North Carolina | 8/6/2020 - 8/10/2020 | Harper Polling | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 8/8/2020 - 8/10/2020 | Emerson College | 673 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 51% | R + 1% |
| North Carolina | 8/12/2020 - 8/13/2020 | East Carolina University | 1255 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 0% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/2/2020 - 8/4/2020 | OnMessage Inc. | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/7/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Change Research | 456 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/8/2020 - 8/10/2020 | Emerson College | 843 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 7% |
| Texas | 8/4/2020 - 8/13/2020 | YouGov | 846 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 40% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 8/2/2020 - 8/4/2020 | OnMessage Inc. | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even |
| Wisconsin | 8/5/2020 - 8/6/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 750 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 55% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 13% |
| Wisconsin | 8/4/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Marquette University Law School | 694 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| Wisconsin | 8/4/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Marquette University Law School | 801 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| Wisconsin | 8/7/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Change Research | 384 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 4% |
| Wisconsin | 8/7/2020 - 8/16/2020 | Morning Consult | 788 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
So Biden is either barely holding on in Wisconsin, or he’s poised to completely run the table.
Except Mississippi and Kansas. Even solid Red states like Texas and Georgia are within margin of error.
It wouldn’t surprise me in the least is Utah is close this year. Yes, Utah is one of the reddest states in the country, but Trump is really not very popular there. I recall that during the 2016 campaign, at one point McMullen was leading in Utah.
This year there may not even be any polling done in that state. Most pollsters concentrate on the swing states, because that’s what gets headlines. So I see Utah as being, at least potentially, the WI, MI, and PA of this election.
That would be sweet. And I suspect Mitt Romney would be pleased.
I’ll reiterate what I said a week ago: I’m worried about Minnesota. A new poll shows it to be a total toss-up, and this is part of a discernible (though surely not irreversible) trend toward Trump there.
(Ignore the “28 June 18” link header — it’s some weird error).
Minnesota has seen rather weird and erratic polling this time around. Between October of '19 and May of this year 538 wasn’t showing any poll results. I thought that was really odd. The poll you mention is just one poll and is by a polling group rated C- by 538. One poll isn’t reason to panic but it definitely bears keeping an eye on it.
Not just one poll. A- rated Emerson had an LV of only B+2 (within MOE).
Still this Economist bit is reassuring. It includes that most recent poll and still gives Biden 90% projected chance of winning the state, currently calling it 54 to 46.
538 has Minnesota 73-27 blue*.
Debiased PredictIt has MN at 84-16 blue*.
* Win probability, not vote share. Favorite-longshot debias is p’ = ϕ(1.64 ϕ^(-1)(p)) where ϕ is the CDF of the standard normal.
Yeah, not just one poll but polling in MN has either been erratic or not reliable as 538 didn’t show results until long after they had polls for WI, MI and PA. And as I believe we agree, those four are the linchpin.
AZ looks good. I have a hard time buying FL is really that good. OH & NC are looking really difficult.
Biden really can’t afford to lose MN.
Thanks, folks. I’m a little relieved that MN hasn’t been well polled — but only a little.
Yeah, interesting how AZ and NC were moving the same direction — toward Biden — for a while, but then NC reverted to its mean (I.e. slightly pro-Trump), while AZ (surprisingly to many) has stayed moderately pro-Biden, so far.
Any insight as to why AZ might end up saving the day? Rise in Hispanic probable voters (though not all of them vote Dem)? Even a little reverse-coattail effect from the popular Mark Kelly? Something else?
Whatever it is, the Biden campaign had better do what they can to preserve it and amplify it.
And, I agree with Kolak that we should never trust Florida. They’ve blown it too often.
Biden buying TV and YouTube ads in both OH and NC: Biden's campaign to run ad seizing on Trump's Goodyear comments | CNN Politics
A little of both of those things. I’m not sure if the percentage of senior voters has decreased, but that may also be part of the reason AZ is a little more blue than last cycle. I suspect that AZ and FL have remained as red as they have is because on ongoing influx of conservative seniors retiring there from places like the northeast and Chicago. Maybe that has slowed down with Covid-19?
Allan Lichtman of Keys to the White House fame predicts a Biden win:
Thanks. Though, maybe the fact that AZ (still) has some many seniors (compared to N.C.) is one reason it’s still leaning Biden. Seniors nationwide leaning more to the Dems than usual has been a happy surprise in recent months, probably mainly due to the Trump administration (and some Republican governors, etc.) inadequate COVID response.
My thinking was kind of the opposite. My assumption is that the Republicans in AZ, since they are disproportionately likely to be seniors, have decreased in numbers due to dying since 2016. In NC, since the Republicans are not disproportionately old, at least compared to AZ, they are less likely to have decreased in numbers due to dying from old age. All that assuming, of course, that the numbers of seniors retiring to AZ has declined.
North Carolina is the state that I am the most afraid of. It is the swing state that is most likely to succeed in voter suppression tactics due to a long history of pretty blatant actions in the recent past. So when asked to do so, elections officials and elected officials in other states might (or might not) do a quick sanity check and come to the conclusion of “hey, wait, it’s my butt on the line if this doesn’t work!”, but the players in NC have already shown they don’t care about that.
I’d be equally worried about Wisconsin and Georgia except that as others have said the Democratic executive makes it less likely in WI and Georgia is less likely to be the tipping point state.
Trump faces pessimism as the GOP convention opens: AP-NORC poll: Trump faces pessimism as GOP convention opens