For the 1 or 2 folk who don’t know, I stand firmly with the far right wing of the GOP. So, feel free to take my analysis with a grain of salt, or dismiss it as wishful thinking.
I plan to vote for Rick Perry for governnor and for John Cornyn for the Senate, and I expect them to win. But… ethnic pride is the wild card here, and it COULD change everything.
A white Democrat would stand no chance of beating Rick Perry. A liberal Democrat would stand no chance, either. But Tony Sanchez is a (relatively) conservative Hispanic Democrat, and that certainly gives him a shot at winning. The Hispanic vote tends to go solidly Democratic anyway- despite his best efforts, George W. Bush never came close to winning a majority of Hispanic voters.
But if the presence of a guy named Sanchez excites Hispanic voters, there COULD be a great increase in Hispanic turnout at the polls.
Historically, Republican candidates like Bush or Perry could win if they got a mere 37% of a small Hispanic turnout. But what if they get only 15 or 20% of a HUGE Hispanic turnmout? They might be big trouble… especially because, despite his ethnic name and fluenct Spanish, Sanchez is relatively light-skinned and comes across as a Texas good ol’ boy. He’s not likely to scare white voters- indeed, as a folksy, relatively conservative Democrat, he certainly has a chance to attract voters who’d usually go Republican. Since he’s a very rich oil man, he can’t very well be attacked as a standard tax and spend liberal.
Moreover, IF Sanchez succeeds in bringing out a large number of Hispanics to the polls (it would have to be FAR more than usual), that could affect races down the line… especially if Victor Morales wins the runoff for the Senate.
Now, for the Senate runoff… I have a lot of respect for Dallas mayor Ron Kirk, and while I won’t vote for him, I think he’s a highly capable man, and might have made a strong gubernatorial candidate. However, I don’t think he’d win the election if nominated. If the November elections pits him against John Cornyn, I expect Cornyn to win handily.
Now, I have VERY little respect for Victor Morales. He strikes me as a dim bulb. The first time he ran for the Senate, against Phil Gramm, he made for an interesting Cinderella story, and he milked that for all the media coverage and sympathy he could get. But the more people see and hear from him, the less there is to like. He’s smug, obnoxious, and ignorant- that makes for a bad combination. If the November race pitted him against Cornyn in November, Cornyn SHOULD win on the merits. But…
There’s that ethnic pride factor, again. If people get to know what a moron Morales is, he can’t win. But if he keeps his mouth shut, this may be the year that his ethnic name is enough to win the election for him.
In short: Kirk is a much smarter man, a much more qualified candidate, and a much more impressive figure than Victor Morales. But Kirk stands almost no chance of winning in the fall, whereas Morales stands a decent chance of winning if he runs a “stealth” candidacy (lots of commercials for Morales, but NONE in which he’s allowed to speak).
Major surprise and disappointment: Texas is one of the few states in which all major state judges are elected, rather than appointed. Unfortunately, most people have no idea who the judges are, and incompetent, unqualified morons are elected on a regular basis by uninformed voters. This year, qualified incumbent judge Lee Yeakel was defeated by a flake who entered the primary on a whim (it probably didn’t hurt that this yahoo’s name was “Law”).
I happen to think the average voter is unqualified to select judges. I’d prefer that judges be appointed. Election fiascos like this one only confirm my belief.