Rick Santorum voter support drops to 0% after debate, says one poll.
Link contains a crude but amusing Santorum vine.
Rick Perry’s stopped paying his field staff: http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/10/politics/perry-pay-south-carolina-staff/index.html
Oops.
Rick Perry’s Super-Pacs have raised $17 million. They plan on working the ground game. So Perry will be around for a while.
Not sure where to post this. Vox has another terrific article on the GOP nomination contest:What Donald Trump gets about the electorate. It’s not really about Trump. It’s about the electorate. The article is numerate.
Briefly, the Republican donor base wants more or the same immigration and cuts to social security. Among voters that combination yields support of… 3.8%. Populists oppose cuts to social security and want to restrict immigration. That block has 40.3% support. Trump alone is pursuing that block in a big way, while most of his Republican opponents are in the cut social security camp, a position with 6.2% electoral support.
The article has 4 charts.
I’m not sure if I buy it. I think both of the questions are poorly worded and only vaguely related to real policy decisions. There’s a tower of conclusions resting on that saggy base.
Mostly I wonder if this comment is real or satire:
Poe’s Law Bingo.
What about the rising campaign of Deez Nuts?
I was coming here to post about this and say how non-indicative these early polls are. Deez Nuts is tied with Mark Rubio and polling ahead of Fiorina, Walker and Huckabee in NC.
I had to dig very deep to get this comparison as most polls do not name Deez Nuts specifically. His numbers are hidden under other/undecided.
Also, where are these news sources getting Deez Nuts numbers from? One article I read stated the latest Public Policy Polling but I do not see any candidate with that name at PPP’s latest poll.
The social security question is particularly soft as question framing matters a lot. But I think the admittedly simplistic tables reflect an old challenge faced by the Republican donor base: how do they persuade the middle class to vote against their economic interests?
A soft statistical base can be superior to no base at all: the latter is typical of most political coverage. The article also provides a plausible explanation for Trump’s success: he pursues an under-served voting bloc. Now it’s possible that the Republican base is mad: hopping mad! Or maybe they thirst for authenticity. But those are evergreen stories which have been told during every election for the past goddamn 50? years. With little in the way of non-anecdotal evidence.
Another analytic approach is to use expert opinion: that enables us to evaluate non-statistical evidence. The experts in this case are the Republican candidates themselves, who are falling over each other in a bid to show how much they oppose making US citizenship a right of all of those born here. (Fun fact: about 95% of US citizens with immigrant parents were born when their parents were here for over a year. The anchor baby meme is largely horseshit. As LOLGOP puts it crudely, “GOP candidates: The child of the person who raped you that we want to force you to have? He can’t be a citizen.”)
Brad DeLong on the new self-deportation advocacy: [INDENT]Note, however, that by “self-deportation” I do not mean what Mitt Romney meant by the phrase: make life so unpleasant for undocumented immigrants in the United States that they decide to leave. What I mean by “self-deportation” is candidates adopting policies that would deport themselves.
Piyush Jindal’s parents were Indian citizens in the United States on student visas. Ted Cruz was born in Canada to a Cuban-citizen father. Both of Marco Rubio’s parents were Cuban citizens when he was born. Columba Bush–wife of JEB! Bush–was born a Mexican citizen in Mexico, and Wikipedia at least claims that as of her wedding she did not speak English.
Yet all are now denouncing as unforgivably lax the birthright citizenship constitutional guarantee and the naturalization laws by which they or their spouse claim American citizenship.
This is affinity fraud: saying, “I’m just like you! I think as you do! I hate immigrants! Why, I’d have applauded if the U.S. were to have deported me as a baby!” And the very non-sensicality of the claim is what makes it more credible. [/INDENT] http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/paul-krugman-inflation-paranoia-as-a-tribal-markerhttpmobilenytimescomblogskrugman20150801inflation-parano.html
Trump gives voice and moral support to some very ignorant ideas believed by some very ignorant people: it is catnip for the Republican base.
I believe this a lot more than I believe it’s his positions that are driving the numbers.
Yes, and his lovable-scoundrel/reality-TV-star public image (“Did he really just say that? Oh, that Donald!”) means he can get away with comments that would sink most other candidates overnight.
My suspicions may be realized. Who exactly is Mr. D Nutz?
Oh, that’s just John Galt’s porn-name.
My apologies if this has been posted elsewhere but I felt it should be shared. I just about peed I was laughing so hard - Bad Lip Reading of the First Republican Debate
This is maybe the funniest thing I’ve ever seen.
Right? I’ve watched it 3 or 4 times and still start laughing so hard I’m almost crying.
Digging the wee-wee song!
I hate to draw attention away from the esteemed Mr. Nutz, but how far right has the Republican Party shifted when the the Ghost of Ronald Reagan is running as an independent?
My last list, quoted below, is dated June 5, when Trump was still polling in the low single digits. Seems like the race has changed a bit since then. 
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The frontrunner: Donald Trump.
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In second place, but still with no chance to win: Ben Carson.
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Most likely to benefit when (or if?) Trump comes back to earth: Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Jeb Bush.
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Most likely to benefit if Jeb just doesn’t have it: John Kasich. But still a longshot for the nomination.
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Still most overrated by the MSM: Marco Rubio.
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Still toast: Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina.
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Running? Who in the damn galaxy ain’t? Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, James Gilmore.
I see Walker has put his foot in his mouth suggesting that the border with Canada - all 5,000 miles of it - needs a wall.