I’ll start with the two I know about
Minnesota – Amy Klobuchar is the likely DFL candidate, and likely winner. On the GOP side we have Mike Lindell is running, but isn’t even registered to vote in MN (and may not be legally eligible ). There are some more serious candidates.
Wisconsin:
On the R side, it will likely be “MAGA” Tom Tiffany, as he has aired about 3 million ads and I couldn’t tell you the other R candidate without looking it up.
The D side is a big mess. Current Gov Evers is not running. Milwaukee County executive David Crowley dropped out, but then after Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez dropped out due to “significant inaccuracies with her campaign’s financial reports” he is back in. Former Lt Gov Mandela Barnes dropped out recently as well (he lost the Senate race to Johnson in 2022, the same year Evers was re-elected – still not sure who votes for both Evers and Johnson)
Recent polls has DSA Francesca Hong leading but with a lot of undecideds.
With ballots already printed with candidates who have dropped out all I can say it it is a mess.
Again, I live in MN, but can almost “see Wisconsin from my house” (I can from a block away) and spend a lot of time there. My TV stations are WI based (even if their station and/or antenna is in MN) so I get a lot more WI news and ads than MN ones.
Just to get it out of the way, in CA Democrat Xavier Becerra is going to struggle mightily…not to yawn. Barring an epic public relations meltdown of some sort as with the one that sunk the unlamented Eric Swalwell, he will cruise to an easy victory in a very large, overall very blue state. In the last couple of polls a month ago Becerra has been sitting at a luxurious +25. There is probably very little else that needs to be said.
Hong seems to have the nomination locked up, which will be a great example of Democrats losing a winnable race by nominating a crazy person. Hong is supporting “police and prison abolition” in a Trump-leaning purple state in 2026 and is known for tweeting about how “white people give her anxiety.” She also has a Milwaukee Bucks tattoo and decided to post herself cheering for the Knicks last month because that got all mixed up with the Mamdani thing and she thinks they are the “socialist” NBA team. Just an absolute trainwreck, basically the spitting image of a stereotypical extremist, offputting DSA candidate from a Republian caricature, except she’s a real person and she will be the albatross around the neck of every Democratic candidate in Wisconsin and in states that get its TV signals for the next three months.
Edit: The timeframe about Hong’s psychiatric hospitalization is not certain so I removed it. She has discussed being institutionalized in 2006 but there’s no independent verification of whether it happened again.
GOP Primary
Byron Donalds is the presumptive nominee - Trump-endorsed and leading by a LOT in every poll held so far. As an African-American, he would be historic in the office should he win nomination and election.
Jay Collins is the current Lt. Gov. Disabled vet (he lost a lower leg). Desantis’ pick. Dark horse running well behind, but has a fair amount of money and has started running some vicious attack ads (via a PAC) against Donalds. Could be a dark horse.
Others are running and some are decently funded, but lack name recognition. My guess is that it is a two-horse race.
Democratic Party:
David Jolly seems to be emerging as the putative favorite. Former US Rep, has a scion of a powerful Dem family as a running mate for Lt. Gov. (the only candidate with a declared running mate). The Graham family still holds sway in Florida politics.
The only serious challenger has withdrawn. Absent a black swan election, the nomination is Jolly’s to lose.
Overall, the head-to-heads generally have Donalds beating Jolly to keep the state red, but if the attack ads (and Florida’s latent racism) come into play, the general election could be closer than the GOP would like. I still expect the GOP nominee to be our next Governor.
Current Democratic governor Laura Kelly is term-limited. Tomorrow’s primary elections could be interesting.
Democrats: A 3-horse race. Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher are current state Senators. Curt Skoog is the mayor of Overland Park, a city in the KC metro and the second-largest city in the state. Kelly has endorsed Corson. Personally, I would like to see Holscher win the election, as Kansas has had a weird propensity of electing woman Democrats. Five of the last 10 gubernatorial elections have been won by a female Democrat. Any one of the three would be preferable to any of the four GOP candidates.
Republicans: A four-way race between Ty Masterson, Philip Sarnecki, Scott Schwab, and Vicki Schmidt. Masterson is probably the front-runner. He is the current president of the state Senate and is by far and away the leading candidate for the Biggest Asshole In The State. Sarnecki is a business owner in Johnson County, the richest county in the state. Schwab is the current Secretary of State, and Schmidt is the current State Treasurer. Masterson, Sarnecki, and Schwab are vying for the MAGA vote; Masterson has the endorsement of DJT, for what that’s worth right now. Schmidt is the best of the four, and I’ll be voting for her tomorrow.* The mud has been slung often and thick in the campaign by all four candidates. It’s been kinda fun to watch.
I suspect it will be Corson versus Masterson in November. If that happens, it probably will be a relatively easy victory for Masterson.
*Yes, I’m a registered Republican, for this very reason: to vote for the lesser of all evils in the GOP primaries.
The Republican candidates are Senator Marsha Blackburn, state representative Monty Fitts and U.S representative John Rose. The Democratic candidates are Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green, Tim Cyr, Adam Gurtz, Carnita Atwater and Kevin Lee McCants.
Trump has decided to stay out of the R primary, which must really piss off Marsha, which is great. I loathe her. She will probably win, although sexism could rear its head. John Rose has been moving up in the polls lately. You would think not having Trump’s endorsement would matter but craven as Blackburn is, she will still kiss Trump’s ass if she wins.
The Democratic race is filled with candidates who don’t have much experience holding public office. Green is the only candidate with prior public office experience. She’s been a part of the Memphis City Council since January of 2024. Green is expected to win but come on, it’s Tennessee. None of them have a chance in the general.
Francesca Hong spent yesterday campaigning with Hasan “America deserved 9/11” Piker, then went on TV where she was asked if she still supports “canceling Thanksgiving” for being the “original superspreader event that killed indegenous folx” and refused to walk back her comments. This is definitely what Susie Homemaker in Eau Claire wants to hear. Perfect message for Wisconsin swing voters.
Apparently no one cares about SC, or they assume that it’s so red that there’s no point in polling. I can’t find anything recent.
McMaster is out, and (R) Alan Wilson is running against (D)Jermaine Johnson. I suspect Johnson doesn’t have a hope in hell, but just maybe the purple counties in SC will at least make Wilson sweat.
Racists, and others who were suckers for viciously misleading anti-Barnes television ads, that the Barnes campaign didn’t have the money to push back hard on, because the national Democratic organization didn’t think he had a chance against Johnson, when in fact it was very close and he could have won it.
it’s doubly a shame, because as another poster pointed out here, Hong is a problematic candidate now for governor (though I wouldn’t use as harsh language about her as the other poster did). I voted for Barnes the day I got my absentee ballot in the mail, almost a month ago. He would have made a good governor.
(I meant it’s a shame because many are voting for Hong because they think Barnes “can’t win at the state level,” when I don’t think that’s true at all).
I think Tim Walz just decided he’s had enough of politics, and while he has aggressively gone after those defrauding the state, he still has ownership for it. It would be a brutal battle, so good on him for stepping down. I agree Klobuchar is probably a lock for the D-primary, but I’ve not seen a single TV ad from her. Perhaps saving her money for the big show.
On the R side, there are a number of dipsticks including Lindell, who is now in trouble for throwing pillows to people lining the streets to see him ride by. Has to do with buying votes. The more prominent one is Lisa Demuth, the current Speaker of the House. She has some chops, having won all four of her political attempts. I don’t like her negative ads which promise to fix things that don’t need fixing.
Right - there’s no universe where someone like Barnes who is basically within the spectrum of “normal Democrats,” who is already a statewide officeholder because he already won an election, is a bigger liability in a general election due to “having a consensual sexual encounter 8 years ago” than Francesca Hong and her litany of extremist positions is. The problem is the same major issue facing Democrats nationwide, which is the hijacking of primaries by the DSA/Hezbollah/Platner class/Just Plain Fucking Nuts coalition within the party. They don’t care if they win general elections - half of them are active saboteurs or accelerationists in the first place who are trying to lose, and all of them derive just as much utility from complaining about how their candidate was screwed out of winning by The Jew as they do from holding office. The only target of Francesca Hong and her ideological allies is is regular Democrats; they don’t care about Republicans and they agree with Trump on a lot of issues including being pro-Russia and anti-trade.
Hong is absolutely Looney Tunes and for Wisconsin Dems, th-th-th-th-th that’s all folks.