US House races 2026

Here’s our thread on the upper house: Senate races 2026

Thought we ought to have one on the House of Representatives, as well.

Here’s Wiki: 2026 United States House of Representatives elections - Wikipedia

These may also be of interest:

I suspect control of the house will be determined by an election this year as much as those in 2026. I think it’s all riding on whether California voters approve retaliatory gerrymandering this November.

Before we get to the 2026 election, there’s going to be some interesting politicking in certain House districts. Specifically in TN-07. Perhaps in other districts if more vacancies occur next year.

With Adelita Grijalva’s win in AZ, the Rs have a 219-214 majority in the House of Representatives. There’ll be another election on 4-Nov in TX-18 to fill a vacancy there. That district is D+21, so most likely a D win. That will reduce the R margin to 219-215.

But then there’s a vacancy in TN-07, which is an R+10 district. Normally, that would be fairly safe for the Rs, but in most special elections this year, the Ds have been winning by far more than the nominal partisan lean of the district in question. Usually by double digits. For example, Grijalva won by about 49 points in a D+13 district.

So I expect that Tennessee district to be suddenly competitive. The primary is 7-Oct and the general 2-Dec. Ballotpedia list 4 Democrats and 11 Republicans in the primary.

CO-8 should be interesting. The last two elections have been very close. In 2022 the Democrat won by 1632 votes after the Pub messed up on the abortion issue. Then in 2024, the Pub won by 2449 votes after the Dem revealed she has depression.

A bit of good news, and political courage, in the Hoosier State:

CA prop 50 passed, and Texas’s racial gerrymandering is in the courts. It is possible CA redistricting will hold up (it should, it isnt racially biased and the voters approved it) but Texas plan will be kicked out.

And in Tennessee yesterday:

This is the key. I’m going to be voting D, but I have no idea for which one since I live in one of the Texas districts that is / isn’t getting gerrymandered (either the 27th or 34th, depending on the day). It all depends on what the courts decide :grimacing:

ETA. It seems some Democrats are still not campaigning well. The yard signs for the incumbent Democrat from the 34th district, Vicente Gonzalez, have a terrible message. His campaign slogan is “The right kind of Democrat”.

The Hill: House GOP exits mount as gridlock deepens