Here in Arizona the Hobbs vs. Biggs race is heating up with attack ads on both sides being broadcast. The ones against Biggs for some reason are being paid for by the Democratic Committee of Navajo County, one of the bluest counties in the state but also the smallest in population, 110,000 vs. Maricopa’s 4.7-million.
Meantime, Turning Point Action has founded an astroturf organization, Democrats or Biggs and generated an AI image showing Lorna Austin, one of Arizona’s most progressive lawmakers, supporting it.
In Kansas the latest poll is showing GOP candidate Ty Masterson with a 51-44 lead over Democrat Cindy Holscher. Very disappointing, particularly when the Democratic Senate candidate is showing a slight lead over the GOP incumbent.
Masterson is a sleazeball who will try to be Trumpian if he gets elected.
As noted, I expect first to see intimidation, too few polling places, etc. in blue areas to drive the total votes cast in the red direction.
If that’s not enough, I expect ballots from the bluer precincts to simply disappear. An accurate count of a pre-filtered batch of ballots amounts to counting fraud in my terminology.
Depending on the voting technology used in Texas, there may be opportunity for cyber shenanigans too.
I think you strongly overestimate the ease of ballot fraud. It’s been a couple years but when I was in Texas they did it the same way as Illinois with a physical ballot and matching digital record. Which means they’d have to do a lot of work to demolish ballots and votes in the same number. They’d also want to destroy ballots in places where all the poll workers are probably democrats. The decentralized nature of voting and vote counting kind of defeats a lot of potential vote meddling. Also Texas has a very long early voting window. So they’d have to go into blue areas where they’re out numbered spread out to hundreds of polling places, and stake out for three weeks.
Even if they try all of that they may end up driving turnout, and making Republican vote suppression efforts the story of the election. Think of the way Trump hurt his party in Georgia during the 2021 Senate runoffs.
The best thing (and by that I mean worst) that Texas does to give Republicans a leg up is making it incredibly difficult to register to vote. You have to have be registered several weeks before the vote. You can’t register online, all your forms need to be snail mailed. So retirees and people who’ve been living in the same house for a decade have a real advantage over people who have to move and work and move for work. If Gina Hinojosa is the governer when this is all over they may have lost that slow, effective vote suppression effort.
Yeah, the GOP in texas will just turn to intimidating voters, and of course disenfranchising minorities- this is SOP for them, no need to get caught cheating if you can purge voters legally.
Have you read Robert Caro’s biography of Lyndon Johnson?
Long time ago? Yes. And getting back to where Texas was in the 1940’s would take more than one cycle. But, yes, I have seen evidence of widespread dishonest vote counting in Texas, albeit with pure paper ballots.
Yes, this is now. We have a President who has already tried to illegally overturn one election and openly talks about illegally staying in power after his current term ends.
Once again, we need to distinguish among three things: 1. Actual ballot-box shenanigans (very unlikely in our dispersed-control system; 2. Election Day intimidation tactics, e.g. ICE agents near voting locations (a little more likely, but probably not on the scale some fear — though of course just the fear itself is enough); 3. Post-election shenanigans, from “find me another thousand votes” to coup attempts.
Don’t pursue this point further here — it would be a hijack. Just keep it in mind on ALL these sorts of threads.
In Tennessee, we have two women running for governor - Marsha Blackburn (R) and Jerri Green (D). This has led to a Republican in sheep’s clothing running as (I). A man, of course. And the repubs are scared shitless of him. I have never seen an independent candidate get any attention. They know he will take votes from Marsha so they are going all out to smear him. But they are doing it by playing up his criminal background. “He was behind bars, now he wants to be behind the governor’s desk.” (I have no idea what he did, I don’t care.) I can’t believe they think this will work. Being a criminal is not disqualifying for a Republican! Many, many will choose him over a woman. I doubt it will be enough to matter (Marsha should have it in the bag) but stranger things have happened.
Name? Wiki list three Indy candidates, and from what I read the Woman Indy=Lauren Pinkston is getting media attention- Hatley and Vick are the two others-
Oops. His name is David Hatley. I haven’t seen any ads about Pinkson, pro or anti. There are actually more than a dozen independent candidates on the ballot.
Even in the world of dirty political ads, using your opponents’ estranged mother to claim she’s lying about her childhood is low. Especially when mom skipped out on bail with the stepfather who abused your opponent as a child.
"Acton’s parents met at a Youngstown State University theater party and divorced when she was 3. Her mother kept the children, and in Acton’s first 12 years, the family moved through about 18 homes on the city’s North Side, including a bare basement. At one point, after the family moved to California, her mother put Acton and her younger brother, then 8 and 5, on a bus alone from Nebraska back to Ohio.
Acton said she was abused by a man with past molestation accusations, whom her mother married when Acton was between 9 and 12. Criminal charges were filed while the family was living in a tent at a campground outside Youngstown, and her mother and stepfather later skipped town while out on bond. Acton said the last time she saw her mother was at the courthouse, where she went to kiss her and her mother turned her cheek away."
This isn’t a calculated political move, this is a spoiled child of a candidate using his doomed campaign as a vehicle to be as vicious and cruel as possible. Ohio politics is going to get rocked in two and a half weeks.
Sadly, it does seem to be gaining some traction, though. Apparently there are a number of parents so awful that their children have cut ties, and this ad appeals to them.
I hope that it turns off more people than it attracts, but I’m not holding my breath.
I don’t buy it. I think if you were the kind of person to respond favorably to this, you were already a die hard Republican.
I think (much like the Talarico hoaxes, or the “Democrats for Rogers” in Michigan) that there is a media ecosystem that loves rushing to find people who will praise and echo Republican messaging, especially the most despicable bits of it. But then in a few days the sugar high goes away and Republicans are left once again looking stupid and despicable. We’re in the “No one is allowed to say anything bad about Charlie Kirk” part of the response cycle. In a couple days a bunch of Republican consultants will be that much more terrified of the coming backlash.