14.5 million Australians go to the polls tomorrow to determine whether LAB under Kevin Rudd or LIB/NAT under Tony Abbott occupies The Lodge for the next 3-4 years.
There are enough Aussies on this board to provide a unrepresentative sample, an add a few Kiwis with their 2c to skew the poll.
So how do you call it?
Poll to follow
Alas my preferred outcome of a minority Greens government with the support of Bob Katter’s and Clive Palmers’ parties is not a viable option, though for shits and giggles it would be hard to top.
Historically 3% swing is substantial, 5% is a landslide.
That was until the last NSW election showed that “we” aren’t as rusted on as “we” were and that double digit swings against the government in safe government electorates is the current political pradigm.
The swing, which patently won’t be even but IMHO will average more than 3.5% which is 30 seat majority.
My guess, Krudd will lose his seat of Griffith and Abbot will probably have more than 100 seats.
Which in turn will unleash a wave of recriminations and political blood-letting greater than the aftermath of the quixotic “Joh of Canberra” campaign of 1987 that shish kabbabed the LIB/NATs for two electoral cycles. Will only be surpassed by the ALP/DLP split in 1954. And the LAB remnants won’t be a sufficiently coherent Opposition to blunt the LIB/NATs more fanciful notions. Not good.
I’ve gone Lib Nats by 20 seats although it could easily be as little as 10 or as much as 30. It won’t be the utter rout it may have been but will still be a smacking.
Funny that the consensus is that the only person who actually thought Labor could win this election with Kevin Rudd in charge, was Kevin Rudd. Labor didn’t put him there because they thought he would win (that thought probably terrifies them far more than the thought of losing) but to close the gap so they weren’t wiped out.
As soon as the election is lost they’ll feed him into a woodchipper (figuratively or literally), lick their wounds and go about the task of sorting their shit out so they can make a contest at the next election.
If all the people who are squealing about how bad Abbott will be are half right, Labor has a big chance if they can minimise the number of seats they lose now, and get their shit together quickly minus Krudd
Coalition will win by 20 seats or so. Installing Rudd essentially ensured that the ALP will have a fighting chance in three years. Still, unless Abbott is disastrous in terms of selling his government as credible (and really, no one can beat Gillard on that count) the ALP will be out of power for at least two terms.
It’s a shame, but the ALP doomed themselves in 2010 and they never fully recovered. An Abbott government is merely Act III in a three-act play.
I’m not a political scientist but the consensus seems to be it’ll be a Coalition government - so Labor will lose, but I don’t think they’re going to get pwned the way they would if Rudd hadn’t made a dramatic reappearance.
I think they have a point and that the prospects of Labor rebuilding and becoming a substantive opposition would be much improved if Kev was given a generous tar & feathering, if a pair of concrete shoes weren’t available.
But isn’t there something singularly undemocratic about this? (ok, ok when has the NSW right or Vic Left been overly concerned about democracy anyway). He won his seat, which wasn’t always on the cards. These guys kicked out Craig Thompson, amongst others out of the Labor party, wouldn’t accept their vote, wouldn’t re-endorse them etc but Rud has done exactly nothing to disqualify him as a parliamentarian.
