Good news about the refugee cap - they will be lifting it after all. Possibly because there was so much criticism about it.
Immigration is one of the issues where Biden is probably out-of-step with progressives. I remember the primary debate where the Democratic candidates were asked to raise their hands if they agreed that illegal border crossing should be decriminalized. All but one raised their hand, and Biden did a sort of “half raise” and segued to talking about reuniting children with their families. And he’s been pretty clear and focused on ensuring that those seeking to enter the country or who entered the country illegally are treated humanely and afforded due process.
But he doesn’t seem to have much appetite for actually admitting many more immigrants than Trump did, at least not quickly. His political instincts and rhetoric were honed in addressing blue-collar, largely white, industrial workers in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic who are deeply suspicious of what immigration means for their economic circumstances. Arguably it was this constituency that elected him President by rebuilding the “blue wall” in MI, WI and PA. I think he’s trying to slow walk raising the cap and other immigration issues to avoid alienating these voters (which, of course, risks alienating progressives).
I think that’s about right, flurb.
Unfortunate news for the Vice President:
John Oliver on Last Week Tonight was brutally scathing about the failure to lift the cap and allow people who had been approved to actually travel to the US. Biden deserves to get dinged on that one.
Looks like Biden is going to recognize the Armenian Genocide:
Based on what I know, we’re currently having a ton of problems processing the number of refugees we have now–including the huge backlog due to Trump. I know that was true for unaccompanied minors. Lifting the cap while that it still the case would sound like a really bad idea to me. You would need to get the personnel, strategies, and infrastructure in place and show you can handle the current numbers before increasing them.
It’s not like you can just let anyone in. You have to verify they qualify under the law for refugee status. You have to do the background checks. If they’re minors, you have to find them somewhere to stay, ideally with a relative. If not, you still have to help them get housing so you don’t just create a homeless immigrant population. And none of this is a job you can just put on new workers. You have to train them up.
Then there’s the issue that this has to go on while myriad other issues have to be addressed. Trump both intentionally and unintentionally sabotaged a lot of things that have to be fixed. And Biden is moving pretty quickly, more so than most people seemed to expect he would.
While I count myself as a progressive, one of things that often frustrating about my fellow progressives is how little you hear them talking of the practicalities and logistics of their goals. To me, it seems that a lot of them have gotten used to never getting their way that they didn’t really plan it out.
Letting in the already approved who have housing set up is one thing, but if it means more people then expect to get in more quickly, too, I could see that being a problem, assuming I’m correct and they’ve not built up the logistics to handle the influx.
Obama promised to recognize the Armenian genocide and reneged on it. That said, Turkey has largely gone over the dark side in recent years anyway (and may I add a hearty fuck you to Erdogan for it); pissing them off about this now will hardly move the needle.
I’m not well-informed (the opposite, actually) on this situation and admit I don’t understand the significance of this recognition at this time. What would “moving the needle” look like to you in terms of events/behaviors/actions now?
They don’t get their way because they don’t plan it out in the first place. And often the goal is just too extreme. They’re too impatient to understand that change takes time and to be content with doing their part to move things forward rather than fueling a pushback.
Turkey (a NATO member) has made overtures to Russia for collaboration in Syria, arms deals etc. Losing Turkey as a (nominal) partner is not good for US operations in that region – Turkey has a border with Iraq, Syria, Iran and some former USSR states (Armenia is one of them). There are myriad ways Turkey can screw with the US there.
Turkey is already screwing with the US in the region - consider the slaughter and displacement of the US’s Kurdish allies in northern Syria. They could do worse, but they appear to be heading in that direction anyway.
The interests of the US do not match the interests of any country in the Middle East. Nothing we do, including doing nothing or withdrawing, is good. I can only hope the President has good advisors and takes their advice.
How does the Armenian genocide statement figure into this?
Turkey has consistently resisted any acceptance that what happened a century ago was a genocide, even though it was widely known and preNazi, was considered the worst example of a genocide. Turkey takes it as an affront if any country recognizes the genocide and it can have effects on their relations with that country. The concern I have seen expressed is that US recognition will damage relations with Turkey.
However, under Erdogan, Turkey has been steadily drifting into authoritarian territory anyway, so it’s not clear that not recognizing the genocide will have any beneficial effects on US relations with Turkey.
What benefit is recognizing the genocide likely to have? Real question, not rhetorical snark. I’m fighting my own ignorance.
In general - acknowledging the truth of a horrific historical event and encouraging other countries to do so. It would also marginally improve the US’s relations with Armenia, but Turkey is a more valuable ally for a lot of reasons, hence the refusal to acknowledge the genocide earlier.
The genocide happened under the old Ottoman Empire over a century ago so there ought to be a disconnect in theory between that regime and the modern Turkish state, but it’s still likely to inflame matters further between Armenia and Turkey in addition to any US/Turkey tension. As the Balkan war showed, some people carry deep grudges for a long, long time.
It’s not that clear-cut. The genocide, the expulsion of the Greek population from Turkey, and other measures helped to create Turkey as an ethnic Turkish state, which it has been since its establishment.
I’m a descendant of holocaust survivors and personally to me it’s very important to internationally recognize genocide. Even if (as in this case) it clearly won’t result in a direct response like sanctions or if it might have a negative effect on relations with an ally.
I think people have a strong understanding of why holocaust denial is such a huge problem, but unfortunately I don’t think it’s always recognized that many other genocides have similar dynamics.
For Turkey, there’s an element of trying to avoid national shame in their denial of the Armenian Genocide but there’s also an element of denying the Armenian identity and not being willing to acknowledge that an atrocity against Armenians is just as bad as an atrocity against Turks.
I also think it’s pretty significant that at one point when one of Hitler’s close advisors said that implementing the final solution could make Germany an international pariah, he responded by pointing to what happened to the Armenians as an example of the international community not really caring.