As Nate Silver has shown, with sufficient polling data you can predict an election with remarkable accuracy. Silver (as well as a few other serious analysts) has constructed a model that pretty much nailed the 2012 U.S. Presidential election to an almost creepy degree.
the problem is having sufficient polling data. In the case of a Presidential election, Silver not only had many polls, but he had the history of the outfits that did the polls and could weigh them based on past performance, plus he had multiple polls - sometimes almost daily - from multiple sources in each of the major battleground states. Silver’s predictions were more accurate than any one polling outfit.
The problem of course is that in the Quebec race you don’t have nearly as much polling data overall, and essentially no polling data that goes riding-by-riding, which would be the equivalent of the state polls Silver et al. had to work with.
It’s foolish to trust any one poll; the margins for error are simply too great.
Hell no – still enjoying lots of skiing with a huge smile on my face. Our local judiciary and bar were happily sliding down the courthouse hill last week, with hot chocolate and cookies inside. Good times!
I passed tired in late January. I’m now firmly into convinced that when we move in May we’ll need to chip the ice from around the bbq’s and patio furniture in order to move them.
I’m not sure which stage of grief it is but I’m hoping the next phase will be better.
Yes. Very much yes. The forecast for this week - no plus numbers on the horizon yet. I haven’t started dreaming about gardening yet, so that’s good, but it’s going to be happening soon.
Major storm heading for the Maritimes on Wednesday. Looks like we can expect 30 cm or so. The driveway is definitely going down to a one car driveway this time.
Your blast-from-the-past Canadiana for today - we just bought The Razorbacks - Go To Town from Amazon. If you were alive and in Canada during the 80’s, you’ll probably recognize “Saturday Night” (there are samples to listen to on that link as well). We’re going through our tape collection and seeing what we’ve replaced with CDs already, and what we still need to buy - this is going to be expensive!
I’m trying to not think of gardening this year. This year is cleanup and planning, next year will be gardening started. The previous owners left things all over the yard and didn’t bother. I haven’t had a chance to assess much because I took possession the week before it snowed and spent that week cleaning in preparation of moving in then moving in and then it snowed the next day. But I know there is some junk under the snow, and some hard work to come. I was hoping to get out with a garbage bag the last weekend but the weekend before was only taunting me.
Moving into a new yard is a great experience - first you have to clean it up, sure, then you get to see what you have from the previous owners (some nice perennials, trees and shrubs, hopefully), then you start digging and visiting garden centres. That’s the fun part.
On a similar note, we’re planning to sell our house this summer, and I’m going to leave behind about 200 of my babies here in this yard! I always wish I could take my plants with me when we move.
I can’t wait to get started, but I get annoyed that people just leave junk the last two places I’ve lived. Oh well at least I won’t feel a twinge about razing it and starting over!
From what I remember of the yard there is a small vegetable garden sized patch of hostas in one corner, a random bush trying to grow in the middle of the yard, some rocks along the side and a rusty fire pit. We already chopped off the lilac between the sidewalk and fence that kept trying to latch onto me and scratch my eyes out, I love lilacs but they are too overwhelming for me in close quarters. That’s just the back yard.
Front yard isn’t too bad, need to hack back the bushes, get rid of the overgrown juniper, empty the front window box of grass and weeds and garbage.
The fun part is going to be the alley side of the fence. I spotted rhubarb hiding under the nettles that I want to clear away and do something there with that won’t be a hassle because it is an alley after all, but won’t look like a place to toss brer rabbit.
200! That’s a lot! I’ve not done so much, and mostly only annuals but maybe I should look into some perennials now…
I know you’re not allowed to take your plants away with you when you move, but are you allowed to divide anything that will take division? If you have an overlap of a week or so, it might be worth doing. (I am not a real estate agent, nor a lawyer!)
I did that with our last house - I took a few plants that I was able to divide and not change the yard significantly. Showing a house and yard with plants everywhere, then when you move in, all the plants are gone - man, that would NOT be cool!
So, Ebola in Saskatchewan, eh? Well, that’s not good.
