My question is, how did Joe Manchin win it in the first place?
Shows how fast partisan alignment has changed. WV was a coal state, meaning a union state, meaning a Democratic state. He was a two-term governor (winning every county the second time), won a special-ish election to replace Robert Byrd to get into the Senate. He won a full-term with 60% of the vote in 2012 - it seems inconceivable that with no scandals he is even in trouble, but tht is the USA in 2018.
Do people hear themselves when they say something that stupid? The point of somebody being the crook you know is that you don’t hire them.
“Hey, Bob, how’s the store going?”
“Pretty good. We got enough business that I hired a new guy to work nights. I’m a little worried though. I hired a guy who stole from his last job.”
“Why’d you hire him then?”
“Well, I know he’s a crook so it seemed to make sense somehow.”
Is he in trouble? His approval ratings may have “plummeted” but the last ones I can see still has him solidly over 50. There’s obviously signs that there is a big shift towards R in the state but is there direct evidence of how much trouble he’s in?
Well, if the primaries are any indication, Dems outnumber Pubbies roughly 7 to 6, so that’s a good sign.
Eh. In 2014, Democratic primary voters outnumbered Republicans by an even bigger margin. (And being a “Democrat” in a WV primary doesn’t mean much. In 2012, Barack Obama only got 59% in the presidential primary.)
Did the person holding the interview pause at all to point out how absolutely fucking retarded that statement was? Because I feel anything less kinda falls under “dereliction of duty”.
I guess the theory is that what is known about Blankenship was awful, but who knows what isn’t known about the other two guys (kind of Rumsfeldian). It could be even worse!
Of course, that ignores the things not known about Blankenship.
I don’t know but I’d like to find out too.
Part of me (knowing nothing about WV) assumed maybe Blankenship won the counties that were heavy coal producers. But there doesn’t seem to be a connection between coal heavy counties and whether Blankenship won. No idea about the other 2 candidates.
Presumably Jenkins is most well known in the southern part of the state, since that’s where his Congressional district is.
Ohio’s GOP senate race split mostly along TV market boundaries.
Wait, we were rooting against him? I was looking forward to Joe Manchin having a safe seat.
The main problem a guy like Manchin (moderate Democrat in a red state) has is his identification with the national Democratic Party. And with the rise in partisanship in recent years, this has become a much bigger albatross than it once was.
Partly because the Democratic label is even more toxic than ever (to RW voters) and partly because Manchin himself is under more pressure (from his own party) to take a hard line stance on issues that he might have otherwise been more flexible about.
The same is true in reverse for moderate Republicans running in blue states.
In Indiana for the GOP senate you had 3 candidates. Rokita, Messer and Braun. Rokita and Messer are both representatives, and both won lots of counties in their districts but very few counties elsewhere. Braun won pretty much every other county that wasn’t in the 4th or 6th district.
Manchin calls himself a Democrat, he’d be a Republican in any other state.
I just finished reading “Under the Dome” by Stephen King, and realized this guy is basically a real life Jim Rennie, sans the meth lab.
It was a unique election. Morrissey has better conservative bonafides, but he lives in Harper’s Ferry (which some consider the DC metro area) and is originally from NJ. Jenkins is a West Virginia boy who grew up in the southern part of the state, but he used to be a Democrat who previously endorsed Hilary Clinton.
With Blankenship taking all of the far, far right votes, the rest of the state chose between a carpet bagger and a former Democrat. It looks like the people in the southern part of the state valued Jenkins and his roots (near them) better while the people in the northern part of the state would rather vote for the stronger conservative.
Joe played the trick that kept the Dems in power in West Virginia for about twenty-five years longer than in other southern states: keep the federal money flowing, be pro-gun and pro-life. Joe is also an excellent politician who at least acts like (and maybe he really does) care about people.
Latest registration numbers are Dem 43%, Rep 32%, Ind/Other 25%. The Ind number is likely skewed because while registered Dems and Reps must vote in their own respective primaries, Independents may choose which primary to cast a ballot. Also a number of former Democrats are philosophically Republicans but remember their grandfather who worked in the coal mines talking about how evil Republicans were.
Manchin voted for the ACA and did not vote to overturn it. He also didn’t vote for the GOP tax cut for the rich.
He is a conservative democrat, but he is still a democrat.
Will he have any trouble getting on the ballot in WV? Anyone familiar with WV law in this area?
Even so, a write-in campaign might be enough help Manchin seat.