The Crimson Glyph (Werewolf/Mafia/Psychopath)

The Game Room
1781

Well, how many Sinners do we think there still are?

If we assume that there were two who had, dare I say, Original Sin, then there is only one Original Sinner left and its recruits. If there was one sinfection per Night, that gives a maximum of 3 recruits (3, right? This is Day 4?). Add one for paul 1’s tracking power causing sinfection, and that gives a total maximum of 5 Sinners.

Every day we have had Sinners claim, and in some cases those people died. Based on the assumption that a Town who embraced Sin would keep it to themselves, there would be only a couple of Sinners.

WAG on my part, but the real number isn’t that far off. Add to this the fact that Sinners need to achiee 100% sinfection, whereas Blackhearts need to control the majority, I’d say the Sinners are far less of a threat.

1782

Chronos, that sure is an interesting approach. It would be strange behaviour on part of the Scum, but then again this game is so complex and full of unknowns that they might of considered it.

Does your analysis factor in people who claim their vote was bought? A BH might vote for a BH against their will, even following this strategy.

The interesting thing about it is that it comes with its own built-in error estimation method. Assuming Chronos is not BH, so taking the second analysis, that gives me a 7/25= 28% chance of being BH. Now, I know I am not BH (:)) so that number seems reasonable. But if there is a swing in the numbers of about 1/4 then a 2/3 probability could be as low as 5/12 chance. Which is still fantastically high.

Let me think on it a little.

1783

While I appreciate the effort that you must have put into the logic and calculations to figure this out… It’s all useless… Here is the problem. You are trying to assign a probability of scumminess to a person. The issue is, you are saying that Mahaloth has a 2 in 3 chance of being a blackheart… when is actuality he either is or he isn’t there isn’t a 1 out of 3 times that he’ll turn up town… it’s not the same as odds of a number being rolled on dice… or that certain cards will be flipped… the outcome was determined long before you started figuring the odds.

It’s like taking a 6 foot man and asking people on the street how tall he is. When they say he is 5’10" are you gonna tell them there is a 2 in 3 chance that they are right? No… he either is or is not the heighth they guessed. Just like Mahaloth either is or is not blackheart. There are no odds to be figured.

1784

But the conditions of the post set it up as a question of probability. Assuming there is no mutual scum voting, and assuming everyone has equal chances of being BH, then there is a certain subset of outcomes where a player votes in a scummy behaviour, a subset of total outcomes. Probability.

Another way of looking at it: I flip a coin right now and ask you what it comes up as. It is right now either heads or tails - but due to the constraint of information, you can only guess, with a 50/50 probability of being right. The fact that it is 100% tails does not change the probability.

1785

this is why i suck at statistics but rock at poker. when you are playing hold 'em your down cards are what they are. they do not change for the course of the hand. having said that i can begin to make assumptions abbout those unknowns by a variety of methods. how do you act? how do you bet, or not? also, when the community cards show there are additional assumptions that can be made. so you are right, the original never changes but conclusions about that original can certainly be imputed.

1786

I am not saying I am against Chronos’ plan.

However, the debate reminds me of the argument “I don’t care to much for odds in Blackjack, I figure, it is a 50/50 chance, either it is the card I need, or it isn’t”

I am not saying I agree with that, either.

1787

Oh fun.
**
FUN.**

Ok. Wow. If we were playing Math, I would agree with you here Paul. We aren’t.

We are playing Mafia. Not only can Scum appear to be town, **THEY HAVE TO, FOR OPTIMAL PLAY. ** There is a variable here, it is not static. Not only is there a vairiable here, but Paul is calling the wrong element the varible.

I follow your 5/10 6 feet example perfectly. You are saying that players can never change up how they present. This means that at all times, A Blackheart is going to be a Blackheart. Further, in the “Town” concept we have, this would mean, they WOULD basically say or imply all scum tells as possible, and will even say “Hey, I’m Scum!”

I THINK NOT.

Here is the strange thing now. I like what Chronos put forward. Perhaps I like it more than I should.

Perhaps more than I should on my Mahaloth vote.

But, I can only over extend in one area.

And, if Chronos’ Idea and mine can overlap, I’m not going to change just to change.

–

The thought occurs to me, that you guys are one or two (in game) days ahead of me in your playing. I will catch up soon, but I know I am not there yet.

–

And the further poser is this :

Are we all playing with Bad Math, or are someone of us exploiting wrong math, to hide?

1788

I will not be back in untill later tonight. ((And there was much rejoicing.))

Again,

Enjoy the silence. Words are very, unnecessary.

1789

Vote Count:

Peeker (2): Mahaloth, Thing Fish
Bear_Nenno (3): Allwalker, Chronos, BillPaul
Mahaloth (1): Meeko

No lynch.

Sorry, it’s been a busy couple of days.

1790

yaknow, i like numbers.

don’t necessarily agree with the math that chronos is using but it sure supports my feelings.

vote mahaloth

let’s watch the worm wiggle on the pavement

1791

Need I say more…
Vote Bear

1792

Chronos, isn’t all that a really long winded way of saying that Mahaloth and Inner Stickler have each voted for the fewest living players?

1793

I did not count any votes that were claimed bought in my analysis, since it seems pretty certain that there are votes being bought, anyone who had their vote bought would want to declare it, and we didn’t have any counterclaims, so I assume that all of the claims of bought votes were accurate.

It’s a little more complicated than that, since it also takes into account who the players they voted for are, and who has voted for people. But I think it’s justified because, with six Town and a Sinner dead, the Blackhearts must be relatively overrepresented among the living players.

Oh, and the 46 possibilities I came up with are [spoiler]ecba
edba
fcba
fdba
gcba
geba
geca
gecb
gfba
gfca
gfcb
icba
idba
ieba
ieca
iecb
ieda
iedb
ifba
ifca
ifcb
ifda
ifdb
igba
igca
igcb
igea
igeb
igec
igfa
igfb
igfc
jeca
jeda
jfca
jfda
jhfc
jhfd
jica
jida
jiea
jiec
jied
jifa
jifc
jifd

where a = Mahaloth, b = Chronos, c = paul3, d = Joey, e = Thing Fish, f = Rysto, g = AllWalker, h = peeker, i = Stickler, and j = Bear_Nenno[/spoiler]and I can post my code, too, if anyone else has a c compiler.

1794

I don’t understand any of what Chronos is saying. I mean, come on, guys, I don’t think I have the worst voting record, considering how hard it is to decide whom to vote for.

:frowning:

You do know my vote yesterDay was bought, right?

I don’t get it. What assumptions are you making?

On Day One, I voted Captain Pinkies, who died a Sinner the next Day.

On Day Two, I voted paul. I was not the only one who did and I gave my reasons. While it was a mis-lynch, I was not alone.;

Day Three,** I didn’t get to vote!** It was a bought vote!

So I’ve voted for one Sinner and one towns person. I really have the absolute worst track record? I find that hard to believe.

Today, I have voted for peeker and I’ve given reasons. I think it is important to note that when I vote, I actually give reasons for my vote. I think it is very important to look at the justifications people make for their votes. I think I have done quite well explaining my choices and why I think they are pro-town.

People like peeker, who just slaps votes randomly with no explanation, are the ones who act anti-town.

Chronos, help me understand.

:frowning:

1795

Chronos, would you mind posting the raw voting data? I’d like to see it to help me understand your method.

1796

No no no Meeko… the point isn’t that the blackhearts will always appear blackhearts to us… it’s that no matter how badly we guess at whether they are blackheart or not… they will still be blackhearts. In the 5’10"/6’ example it is equivalent to the guessing person asking tall man how tall he is and the tall man lying. Now if the guessing person is good at judging heights (finding scum) then he may be able to correctly guess tall man’s height.

And as far as the coin flip analogy that was presented… it doesn’t accurately portray the situation we are in. In order for it to be accurate you would have to take multiple coins and prearrange them with a limited number of them showing up heads, a limited number of tails, and a limited number that are neither. Then you would have to have me guess what the outcome of each one was. The probability in the situation is only going to show how likely I am to get all of them right. I still have a 50/50 chance of guessing any singular one on its own.

But like I said… this is Mafia… not coinflips. We don’t know how many blackhearts there are… how many sinners there are… how many town there are… we can’t rely on probability to solve the game for us… we will lose. Even if Mahaloth has the worst voting record it doesn’t mean he is scum. Check out the Star Wars themed game I played in on FB… I was duped by Pedescribe and others by their insistent snuggling. I was convinced they were town and defended them to their deaths… I was wrong… So my voting record there was terrible I think I only voted correctly once… but I was town through and through.

1797

This is part of my point above. If we only look at voting records, it can be misleading. We have to look at the justifications that people give for votes. It is why I get frustrated when people don’t justify their votes(like peeker…the entire game).

I think my explanations have been pretty good. I’m not a very experienced player, but I’m doing my best, as opposed to just throwing votes around without explanation.

1798

I’m not sure if it’ll help, but:

[spoiler]Meeko (known town)
special ed (known town, dead)
Mahaloth Spurious, Pinkies+, paul1++, peeker,
Chronos Spurious+, paul1, Pinkies++, Nanook+, peeker, Bear_Nenno,
BillMC/paul3
Joey P Spurious+, --, Angel+, paul3, -
AngeloftheNorth/paul2 (known town, dead)
Thing Fish Angel+, Meeko, Angel, paul1++, peeker+, peeker,
Sir Dirx/Rysto paul1+, paul1++, Thing Fish+,
AllWalker Spurious+, Nanook, Joey P, Pinkies++, Angel+, peeker, Bear_Nenno,
peekercpa/Freudian Slit Chronos+, paul1++, Mahaloth, Chronos, special ed, --,
Inner Stickler --, paul1, --, peeker+,
Telcontar (known town, dead)
Nanook (known town, dead)
Justin Credible/Bear_Nenno Spurious+, --,
Captain Pinkies (known sinner, dead)
Spurious George (known town, dead)
Idle Thoughts/paul1 (known town, dead)

A – indicates no vote for the Day, a + indicates the final vote the person ended the Day with, and the paul1/Pinkies vote is marked with a ++, since, being so close, each individual vote meant more. I was considering weighting these votes more highly somehow, but decided that it was complicated enough as it is.[/spoiler]
Mahaloth, as I said, I did not include bought votes in the analysis. And it’s based not only on whom you did or did not vote for, but on who did or did not vote for you. Basically, what this analysis is saying is that it looks likely that you have voted for no Blackhearts and no Blackhearts have voted for you.

1799

It seems to me that your technique gets this totally backwards. You give pro-town points to players that have garnered votes, and pro-scum votes to players that have not. This rewards players who have played anti-town(and gotten votes for it) and penalizes players who have played the most pro-town(and haven’t been voted).

1800

Vote Count:

Peeker (2): Mahaloth, Thing Fish
Bear_Nenno (4): Allwalker, Chronos, BillPaul, Joey P.
Mahaloth (2): Meeko, peeker