Vote Chronos
His plans would allow scum to vote for townies and defend themselves by claiming that they were the best choice mathematically speaking.
What I find the most Odd, even if the math is wrong, or, even if the math is right, it would appear that the people that should vote for Chronos aren’t, and vice versa.
The game is such, we have yet to all get on the same track. Granted, two factions will never be on the same track, much less three.
However, it feels we are playing on 9 or more tracks here.
Strange bedfellows and what not.
Two questions for you all here:
Are Mafia games always this disjoint, even this late into the game?
And admittedly, unrelated ::
You may disagree with the conclusion of my post where I attack Chronos’ math (in depth), but I think it is a substantial post.
Even if posts like that do not DIRECTLY add to the game, what value do they have in the game?
[[I mean, If I could have more posts like that, and less posts of the other kind, EVERYONE in the game would like me more, and my play overall would improve. Correct?]]
I dunno; if anyone “should” vote for me, I suppose that Inner Stickler should be one of them, since he’s one of the ones who comes out of my analysis looking bad. Speaking of which,
This presumes that the best choices as mathematically determined by my plan are Town. Clearly, I’m not convinced of that.
I thought about switching my vote to Chronos, but I think peeker has been more anti-town than Chronos. I guess I might be naive, but I think Chronos is at least attempting something that he think benefits town. Because of this, I am leaning toward thinking he is town.
I know I’m town and have no idea about Inner Stickler, but I still hold that peeker is behaving in the most anti-town way I’ve seen. I guess my questions for peeker would be, “If you are Town, why do you act so randomly? Why vote with no explanation? Why make such odd accusations?”
So. I am looking at the current vote count. as I write this.
Bear_Nenno (4): Allwalker, Chronos, BillPaul, Joey P
This is the part that I wish to look at.
I am not sure if we can call it a bandwagon, but as of right now, it looks like Bear_Nenno is going down.
**
Strange, when he hasn’t really been playing that much.
Strange, when we had BillMC hasn’t been playing that much, yet ended up with a bought vote, and sinfeciton.
**
It would be a real, female dog, if everyone who has not been playing this game, has been town. We have had a lot of subs. I just hope they were evenly balanced.
It would be more of a fix, if all of the most active players, have been blackhearts.
I do not think I can ever fully explain why I suspect someone more than someone else, but let me try, with what I can, in the following way.
AllWalker is the main reason I asked about the most helpful person pinging you. To me, this amount of “help” seems to hide something. It might not be scum, but it DOES hide something.
I have gone on record, earlier, much earlier in the game on disagreeing with Chronos, and his ““systems””. His systems have changed throughout the game, but more often than not, the seem to (By me, and more recently, by other players) to be a complicated solution to a win that only furthers Sinners and Scum.
BillMC Has a bought vote, and as far as I can tell, is still sinfected. He might still be town, but currently, he IS less town that other people. Not by the spirit of the character, but by the letter of his current status in the game.
Frankly, I just haven’t liked Joey P since we differed in humor and WTF being a joke.
Granted, Bear could be squirming on the hook here, saying anything that he thinks we want to hear.
Yet. He psuedo-soft claimed ?! to be Pro Town, with a power role.
Would be sad if he had such a role.
But then, we would have 4 people to look at tomorrow. If Bear goes, and he was Power Town, I will have my work ahead of me, based in no small part, on the vote count I posted above.
I guess I’ll just ask, Meeko. Now that you are no longer the only one voting for me(which I don’t get still), do you still have any reason for voting for me?
I do.
This game advertises so many things. Once you actually get into the game, you realize how small your menu of moves actually is. You still need to do things, yet they make no sense to anyone anymore.
**
I fear my variables might be getting compounded here.
However, Mahaloth could be 101% town, He could say that much, and I would still not move.
The outcome of this vote will help me in Mafia. It may, or may not help me in The Crimson Glyph. **
Peeker,
Have you ever looked in on a Haggle game?
I really would like to see what you could do to that game.
Well, I’ve done a re-read of the thread. I ended up paying a lot of attention to the peeker/Mahaloth interaction and despite the fact that peeker wasn’t making any sense(or arguments), Mahaloth actually came out looking worse in the re-read:
(votes have been bleached)
This is something that’s been brought up before, but between peeker’s noise and Chronos’ method I think that it’s been lost. These two posts we made within 15 minutes of one another, and George didn’t make a single post in the meantime. So what the heck happened to make Mahaloth go from, “Yeah, it’s cool” to “George really was off”? AllWalker did come in with a vote in that time, which tied George for the lead at 2. I think that Mahaloth saw that a bandwagon could be forming and decided to give it a big push.
And now, 1 hour later, the bandwagon has taken off and Mahaloth gets off. As people have said before, it looks like an attempt to avoid accountability for his role in getting the bandwagon started.
Mahaloth was asked about the abrupt change between the initial post and the vote, and said this:
He’s changing his story. In his initial vote he talked more about George’s reaction to the list than the vote to execute. When people rightly called him on the contradiction with his original “it’s cool” reaction, he says that the real reason for his vote was the vote to execute, which really seems like an afterthought in that vote post.
A minor point, but it stuck out at me. I don’t like the whole “it’s lynch Paul or lynch a lurker” thing. And note we know the alignment of all three of the lynch candidates he proposed here, and none of them are Blackhearts.
ToDay(his vote post):
(bolding mine)
I’m surprised that I missed this on first read through. I think that this is a huge slip. I think that Mahaloth knows that peeker’s going to turn up scum and put in a preemptive defence for a vote that, at the time, looked like was going to be for the lynch candidate toDay.
NETA:
Vote Mahaloth, obviously.
Quoth Meeko:
Correction: He hasn’t been posting much. He has, however, been reading the thread, as indicated by his quick response to getting votes. This is as contrasted to BillMC, who was apparently not able to get to the SDMB at all.
My vote for Bear_Nenno was originally intended as a feeler, precisely to see whether he would react to it. If he hadn’t responded within a lower-case day or two, I would have concluded that he wasn’t following the thread at all, and thus was harmless, like BillMC was. With his response, though, he went from the category of “nonparticipant” to “lurker”, and nobody should be able to get away with lurking their way this far into the game. Sure, he might be quiet here, but for all we know, he could still be posting on the Scum board. So he kept my vote once he showed up. And now, with my vote analysis, he ranks nearly as high as Mahaloth and Inner Stickler, and while I wouldn’t be sad to see either of them get the boot, either, I think that lurking for four Days straight is more dangerous than anything either of them has done.
nope. but would be willing to give it a whirl if my mafia dancecard wasn’t so booked
A soft claim? Do you mean this (#1701):
That might be a soft claim, but that’s not how I read it. After all if his life can’t add to the Town’s efforts, it isn’t much of a power role, is it?
Chronos said it best. He is not just absent, but a genuine lurker. My vote stands.
Chronos, your mathematical approach to the game is interesting. I don’t claim to be a math guy, but my feel for the situation is that it’s going to be very hard to find Blackhearts by vote analysis. Not only have we not lynched any Blackhearts, we haven’t even succeeded in putting pressure on them; only one vote all game has been close, and we now know that neither candidate in that one was a Blackheart.
That being the case, I think it’s assuming too much to say that none of the BH have voted for each other; since every vote has gone their way without a fight, they may very well have taken the opportunity to vote for each other in order for possible cred down the road. I would think that the very high number of no-votes in this game would also be a big confounder in such an analysis.
I would be interested, if the math wouldn’t be too complicated, to see what it would look like if we assumed that every BH had voted for either no or one other BH. If we could make such a relatively small shift in our assumptions and not have it translate into a huge shift in the results, I would think that would be a point in favor of the method.
Personally, I think vote analysis is the most powerful tool Town has, and playing this game has made me realize how challenging this three-way setup makes it.
My vote is staying on peekerslit.
WRT Bear, sure, lurking, bad, lynchum, why not?
BTW,** Meeko**, I’m not seeing where Bear claimed to be a power role, and just saying you’re Town is not usually considered to be a claim, soft or otherwise, since everyone will always say that.
Not quite getting the Mahaloth thing, but that’s not surprising since two of his three votes are from people who don’t justify their votes. And Rysto is just now noticing Mahaloth’s behavior which I pointed out on Day One? Hmm…
I still don’t see why you think it is strange that BillMC had his vote bought and was ensinned. He had major connectivity issues. I am sure the politician is town… so by buying the vote of the guy who hadn’t voted the past two nights, he gived town a second vote essentially.
The Sinners would naturally want to ensin someone who is seemingly lurking because they are less likely to announce their ensinment…
It definitely isn’t a soft claim. Hell, I never even got a role PM. When I subbed in, I got simply a “Thanks! You’re vanilla.” You’re not going to get anything from lynching me. I haven’t voted, so you can’t analyze that. I haven’t said much or been suspicious of anyone, so you can’t look at that.
Really, the only thing you will get from lynching me is that scum will have one less person to hide among when I am dead. If that seems like the best strategy for toDay (I have no idea what Day it is, even) then lynch away. I’m just hoping you guys are making your decision off strategy and not suspicion.
Rysto’s vote added to quote. Inner Stickler’s vote neglected for clarity.
peeker has attracted 2 votes toDay. If the 2 people who haven’t yet voted for any of the vote leaders voted together they could swing the results, or force a tie. Surprisingly, the current vote leader is pleading to be spared yet has not casted a vote in self defense. Tsk tsk, I say. Of all the people in Town, the only people who are voting for peeker are high on the suspect list of the rest of town. What does this mean? Nothing, until we identify some more bad guys.
Bear_Nenno? Care to cast your vote toDay? Time is running out.
Vote Count:
Chronos (1): Inner Stickler
Peeker (2): Mahaloth, Thing Fish
Bear_Nenno (4): Allwalker, Chronos, BillPaul, Joey P.
Mahaloth (3): Meeko, peeker, Rysto
The Day may, once again, end a bit late.
I would point out, that I am not voting for Bear, and have also pointed out, that it appears to be a bandwagon.
I HIGHLY suspect that everyone that has been idle is this game has been town. Further, I suspect, that relatively speaking, sans the Meeko outlier [;)] , the Blackhearts have been busy. I can only imagine, if they have a scum board, how busy that thing is.
Why is this game fixated on lyching lurkers, this late in the game? Town knows next to nothing about them, scum knows enough.
They are acting on it.
Speaking of lurking, I will be out today, again. Memorial day, and all of that.
Pedescribe, will you open up all boards to all players and or other wise fill in the blanks, after the game is over?
The Dead Thread for the split didn’t have the amount of information that I thought would be provided. I mean, I didn’t see why that thread was that forbidded.
How common is it, to fill in the blanks, FOR ALL THE PLAYERS, Dead or alive, after the conclusion of the game?
NETA :
Ok, not Captain Pinkies, he was Sin, but still, I think the overall trend can not be denied.