This was a vaguely surprising story I came across in my wanderings on the web. Are there any Missourians who might have more to add?
The basic gist of the story is that Dick Gephardt is at a 40% tie with his challenger with 20% undecided. This would be a huge upset (although I still have my doubts) but it has had no mention in anything I have seen. So, is this an actual possibility or is it the spin put out be a challenging candidate who is trying whatever spin he can to keep a race close with a very well known incumbent?
This Campaigns & Elections site handicaps every congressional race. They say “Richard A. Gephardt (D) STRONGLY FAVORED to be re-elected 3 to 1”.
Even with Missouri heavily in play nationally, this smacks of either wishful thinking by the GOP challenger or questionable methodology by the pollster.
This Congressional District is more conservative than you’d think, considering how often it has elected Gephardt, but Gephardt deals with that by protraying himself in his commercials as more conservative than he is (lots of talk about “family values,” “Missouri values,” and the like).
Federer is probably more in keeping with the ethics of the community, but he’s got serious problems. There’ve been some irregularities in his fundraising, he pushed a Gephardt cameraman who was following him and pushed a tv reporter the next day, he’s playing for the Catholic vote (about 25% of the population is Catholic) by talking in his literature about how he went to Jesuit high school and college, but he neglects to mention that he has since become a fundamentalist Protestant (this shouldn’t matter, but if you’re making religion an issue, it cuts both ways). He just seems to have a nasty temper and is unwilling to take responsibility for his actions. It’s a shame–I like his proposals for education. Then there’s his recent ad where he took footage from CSPAN without permission and used it to make it look like Gephardt was for gay boy scout leaders.
Of course, Gephardt’s playing dirty, too. He does have cameramen following Federer around. He’s sent out at least four glossy mailings making it sound as though Federer wants you to be able to carry an AK47 into a daycare center. And, to top it off, he’s TERRIBLE on constituency issues. As a constituent of the 3rd District, I have NEVER been able to get Gephardt’s office to respond in any way to any of my concerns. It’s well known in the city in the past 2 years that if you wanted anything done locally you had to go to Jim Talent, the moderate Republican Congressman from the 2nd District (currently running for Governor).
A cure on both their houses. I’m voting for Michael Crist, Libertarian.
But as for the OP, there’s no question in my mind that Gephardt’s winning on Tuesday.
I figured that had to be the case. It seems completely random that if this was an actual close race we might have heard a bit more about it by this point.
Gephardt might not become Speaker however if the Democrats end up with only a one-seat majority. Democrat Rep. James Traficant of Ohio. has vowed to vote for Speaker Hastert no matter what.