The less official version that Reid had? Reid? You mean he refused to bring Bush nominees to a vote? So the Democrats win the presidency and the Senate, and at the very least cut deep into the Republican House majority. So in your mind, that means that nothing but conservative legislation comes out of Congress? What color is the sky on your planet?
Reid only brought bills to a vote that he wanted to bring to a vote. It wasn’t an official rule like the hastert rule but it had the same effect.
If both Schumer and Ryan agree to bring any bill to the floor that has majority support, then that majority consists of Republicans+Blue Dogs. Sure, liberals can try to pass legislation with Blue Dogs, but historically it generally hasn’t worked that way due to the political needs of Blue Dog legislators. The last time it did was ACA, and ACA almost resulted in the extinction of Blue Dogs, and with it, the Democratic majorities. The new class isn’t going to fall on their swords again. They’ll vote with the GOP on their non-crazy bills and point to those votes as reasons to return them to office(as well as their opposition to the DC Democratic agenda).
Quoting myself. The only thing I’d change is that 538 is suggesting the Senate is closer than anticipated.
That said, I still think Trump is going to depress GOP turnout, although not remotely enough to give the House to the Democrats. Mind you, at least one poll has Issa under threat; Issa’s in a strong conservative district so I’d bet he’ll still win, but the fact that it’s even under consideration suggests this is an unusual year.
Really? Because from my POV, every last GOP congresscritter is another Trump. I’ll grant you that they aren’t all a bunch of foul-mouthed molesters, but they ALL run on the same things and appeal to the same base in the same way (though usually more subtly than Trump). The mindless, ignorant obstructionism of the last 8 years certainly seems like a Trumpian affair.
Now it appears there are two camps: Trump supporters and Trump deserters. Do you really think everyone will just forget that after the election?
Conservative Republicans and Trump have very different views on a wide variety of issues, starting with Russia but also including entitlement reform, taxes, trade, and abortion. And at least half want immigration reform.
But it seems that not a lot of (Republican, Trump-supporting) voters agree with their (Republican) elected officials on many of these matters.
I don’t think the word “conservative” is all that helpful here (to distinguish the officials from their voters) – certainly, few of those voters would call themselves “liberal” or “moderate.”
The Republican party is obviously split, and on some issues they prefer a more Trumpish stance and on others a more traditionally conservative stance. So now it’s a three-way civil war: Tea Party vs. establishment vs. alt-right. But unlike the Tea Party, the alt right doesn’t seem to have any kind of plan for winning primaries. They are more like the Occupy movement, angry but not really doing anything useful about it. The Tea Party has a lot more money backing it, while the alt right is basically penniless. There are virtually no rich people supporting them, it’s all non-college educated white voters with no organization or even plans to organize.
A lot of us aren’t really that hip to the nuanced distinctions between the Tea Party and the alt-right. Perhaps you can give us the advantage of your experience and expertise?
I remember Dick Armey’s Tea Party Express, mostly for his public announcement that the Tea Party was in solid support of Comcast/Verizon during their struggles with Big Gummint. The warm affection enjoyed by the cable company surprised me. Astonished. Astounded! Dick Armey’s Tea Party Express had big ol’ buses, professional staging and sound crews, and a long list of scheduled events. And then they had Dick Armey, and big ol’ buses.
The “alt-right”? Are we to take it that the alt-right is very similar, only more extreme? There were hints of racist elements in the TP, are there more in the alt-right, or less?
But they won. They did it without a plan, then?
Other than fielding a major-party candidate for president, you mean.
Other than the $10 billion man running for office, you mean.
Other than the RNC you mean, unless you are predicting that they will drop Trump soon. No organization? Well, they did nominate a guy unfit for office who is gonna be lucky to get more electoral votes than Mondale, but other than that, fabulous coalition, just the best, I mean that, the best.
Ted Cruz vs. Pat Buchanan.
No, a famous reality show star happened to run. There is no organized movement beyond Donald Trump’s person.
They didn’t “field” anyone. He fielded himself. It’s not like in 2010, when the Tea Party recruited tons of candidates to challenge in primaries.
Thye were against him, but once he was chosen as the nominee they respected the choice of the voters.
The Republicans built Trump’s base for him. They are entirely responsible for him.
I am not hopeful the Dems will gain the House. But, I am hopeful they pick up 20 seats, which would be a huge gain.
It also would mean that Pres. Clinton, thru wheeling & dealing could easily get a few Repubs to cross over on any sort of reasonable compromise legislation. And, she is damn good at that, one of the few areas she’s better than Obama.
That wasn’t really the problem under the Obama administration - at least, not in recent years. The problem is the Hastert Rule; the Republicans that lose their seats need to be ones that aren’t willing to compromise - and I am under the impression that these tend to be the ones in the safest Republican seats. Remember, you can’t vote on something if it never reaches the floor for a vote in the first place.
Besides, the Senate is the real target, with its prize of being able to push through (or prevent) a Supreme Court justice right off the bat.
Adaher, I see your point about the differences in organization between the alt-right and the Tea Party in the run-ups to the last few elections. However, at this point in time I simply have to disagree with you about these groups’ relative organization. The alt-right today is financially and organizationally supported by a group we are all familiar with: the GOP. That some lawmakers seem to be breaking away from this is interesting, but it remains the case that Trump and everything he represents is the GOP’s boy.
Main thing I don’t like about Hillary is the same thing I don’t like about Obama, his relentlessly centrist stance. Hell, how does anyone even find a center these days, much less stand there!
But things have spun off in weird and wonderful ways. Hillary people are putting out a few ads, feelers toward centrist Republicans. The fact that she is a centrist gives them some breathing room, she doesn’t scare them so much. She is an honorable choice.
Not nominating Bernie may prove to be our salvation. Cold shot.
No it didn’t, the Hastert rule prevented Republicans from voting on bills the leadership wanted but the rank and file didn’t. There is a vast difference between Harry Reid bringing up bills he wants to vote on and Boehner not being able to bring in bills he want to vote on because his teajahdist didn’t let him.
Fair enough, but in both cases the minority party couldn’t pass legislation even if they had a coalition with a majority of votes. The sad part about this is that it hurts the GOP more than Democrats, since even when Democrats control Congress they are doing it with conservative members holding the balance of power. Reagan knew how to capitalize on that, but subsequent Republican Congessional leaders haven’t. They can force tough choices on Clinton on a weekly basis if they agree to just move legislation out of the House and Senate that has majority support. It won’t ALWAYS work for Republicans(immigration reform would probably pass), but on budget issues it would force Clinton to either agree to their revenue and spending numbers or veto despite bipartisan support for a conservative budget path.
Bump?
why?