I don’t agree, but even if I did … we can’t count on the DOJ to not prosecute and convict Trump (or on Trump to discontinue the destruction of his public image, or even for that matter to stay alive). If our hopes for the future require that a blithering, self-obsessed, self-destructive bigot somehow win the other side’s presidential nomination, our side needs to raise its game by several orders or magnitude.
IMHO what you’re overlooking is how close those elections were. One small event going in the direction of the Republicans favor can have huge consequences. Here’s some examples.
A solidly Democratic state legislature badly bungles re-districting and the whole House flips.
A Democratic senator decides they care more about their personal brand than the good of the people and flips parties.
The Republicans lose a senate seat due to nominating someone so crazy they spend their campaign debating the merits of werewolves vs. vampires.
A VP who despite his odious views just barely puts the good of his country over his own good and decides not to launch a coup.
It’s things like these, basically coin flips that we’ve (mostly) gotten lucky with, that have kept things from getting out of hand, not the sanity and basic decency of a majority of the people.
“The House January 6 select committee is considering a criminal referral to the justice department against Donald Trump for obstruction of an official proceeding of Congress and conspiracy to defraud the United States on the recommendation of a special subcommittee, according to sources familiar with the matter.”
B-b-but these are stories from a Bizarro-science-fiction-fantasy-alternate universe, right?? 
If only.
In 2024 the Democrats face a very difficult election map for the Senate. It is likely the GOP will take control of that chamber and will be set up to have a good chance of holding it until the end of the decade.
Gerrymandering of the congressional districts for the House make it likely the GOP will continue to hold the majority even if they go hog wild with stupid investigations.
Anyone who goes up against Biden other than Trump will probably attract more independent voters because the GOP and their media allies have done a very successful job of painting Joe as a doddering old fool who is practically a drooling senile boob controlled by his wife and the party leaders. I expect this propaganda to become even more intense as we get into 2024 election season. Most of these independent voters would likely go for Biden over DJT but if they have another choice I expect enough to go that way to make it all but impossible for Biden to win.
And Og forbid Joe has any type of health issue. That would be enough to throw it to the GOP in a heartbeat.
NY Times reports on Trump’s…flaccid support currently among the GOP.
In February 2016, when Representative Tom Marino became one of the first Republican members of Congress to endorse Trump, he called the decision “one of my life-changing moments” and hailed the presidential candidate as a fresh voice who was not beholden to Wall Street.
And now…
“I think the Republican Party has to do whatever it has to do to get away from Trump,” Marino said in an interview. “He certainly, I think, has cost the party losses in this election that we had in November. I’m deeply disappointed in him.”
Also:
The evidence that Trump is getting weaker within the Republican Party is mounting by the day, and Marino’s letter is just the latest indicator.
“G.O.P. primary voters are moving,” said Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist, nodding to Trump’s worsening poll numbers in hypothetical 2024 matchups. “They are exhausted having to defend his every word and action,” he added, and want “similar policies and fight without all the drama.”
In the Senate, Trump also didn’t get much political cover on Monday. Only one Republican senator, Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, has endorsed his presidential bid.
“The entire nation knows who is responsible for that day,” Senator Mitch McConnell, the minority leader, told reporters at the Capitol.
And of course McConnell can’t quite bring himself to remember who that was or to say his name in a negative light.
Swine. All swine.
Or vote to remove him from office when he had the chance.
I still believe all of the excitement about Trump’s falling poll numbers is more than a little premature.
You may have missed the last paragraph of the USA Today article you linked above:
DeSantis’ success may depend on having a one-on-one contest with Trump, Paleologos cautioned. “Add in a number of other Republican presidential candidates who would divide the anti-Trump vote and you have a recipe for a repeat of the 2016 Republican caucuses and primaries,” he said, “when Trump outlasted the rest of the divided field.”
For now I expect the part I bolded is the way this plays out.
So… Adlai Stevenson II, 1956? But an Adlai so hated his presence on the ticket drove people to vote for Eisenhower?
Ok, I can live with that.
Pretty much what I’m hoping and basically the best situation to get Biden reelected.
I don’t believe I exhibited any premature exuberance, as it were. Just reporting what I read in the Times. His poll numbers being down and the lack of significant defense by his usual sycophants is a good sign; I don’t believe it means he is destined to lose the primary. But it’s certainly better than the opposite.
No, that wasn’t about you. But having seen “this is the end for Trump” forecast so many times over the last 6-7 years I’m incredibly skeptical of all the pundits, etc. who are so certain he has finally crossed the line this time. Problem is, with most of his base there is no line.
Oh yes, I agree 100%.
If all the Hogans and Christies and Pompeos throw their hats into the ring then look for a repeat of 2016 when twenty-some candidates chopped up the sane electorate and Donald won enough states with 29% pluralities.
Nothing needs reforming like the primary systems need reforming.
As long as the parties control how their primary systems work, “reform” isn’t going to happen. The R primary system is designed by Rs for Rs using the R mindset. It works very well to achieve the R goal.
And ditto for the Ds, although their system is very different.
I think it’s unlikely that you’ll see another 20-candidate field in the Republican primary next time, precisely because everyone recognizes this is the best scenario for Trump to get nominated. As feeble as they often seemed in the face of Trump, the Republican establishment is not without levers to pull. Assuming DeSantis continues to enjoy strong polling, any other Republican who floats a bid will come under strong pressure from donors, activists and other Republican politicians to sit it out. They will have a hard time raising money and getting top-tier campaign staff to sign on. They may be threatened in their current sinecures, e.g. Senators may find that they’re being reassigned to the Postal oversight committee. And there will also be positive inducements dangled in front of them if they cooperate, like the VP slot or potential Cabinet appointments.
That said, a few candidates will undoubtedly run anyway. But I don’t think they’ll make much of a splash unless DeSantis absolutely falls on his face.
Yeah, 2016 was a fluke where everyone figured Trump was a joke candidate who would eventually drop out, letting one of the others pull ahead and win the nomination.
Today, you’d have to be an absolute idiot not to realize it could play out the same way.
Which thought now scares me, because there are so many absolute idiots in their party.
What’s going on with this? I keep seeing Reddit posts detailing the newly released Trump tax returns, and I’m seeing those same $700 numbers. Are these new, never-before-released tax returns that just happen to also be $700 by coincidence, or are these the same tax returns we already saw years ago?
The previous reports were based on partial leaks, and there was speculation that the leaks might have been faked for some purpose.
Now that the numbers have been confirmed by this official release, it’s clear that someone with actual knowledge was behind the leaks.