The Dropping Out Thread

We’ve talked a bit about people dropping out in other threads, but I thought it would be nice to have a dedicated thread for news and predictions. So far, we’ve had Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, and Lindsey Graham drop out on the Republican side. (I didn’t miss anyone, did I?) On the Democrat side, we’ve had Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb drop.

Any predictions on who’s next? I’ve long thought Chris Christie would be dropping out, but he seems to be doing well in New Hampshire so I think he’ll stick around at least until then. I don’t expect Santorum to drop, either, since he did so poorly in 2012 and then ended up winning Iowa at the last minute.

At this point, my prediction for next to drop on the Republican side is Rand Paul. I’ve heard some people point to his father sticking around long after it was clear he wouldn’t win as an indication that Rand would do the same. But Rand strikes me as much more of a diva than his father ever was, and he’s clearly not handling being “the candidate no one takes seriously” nearly as well as Ron did.

On the Democrat side, I don’t know why the hell O’Malley hasn’t dropped. My best guess is that he’s staying in on the off-chance that some major scandal will emerge with Hillary, in which case he’s hoping people will flock to him as a “safer” choice than Bernie. If that’s what he’s doing, I have no clue when he’ll drop out.

What do you all think? Who’s in it for the long haul, and who’s leaving soon?

I think Huckabee and Santorum will be out not long after Iowa. I foresee Paul sticking around at least for awhile, I think his ego won’t let him leave quite so soon. Fiona can leave or stick around depending on how much of her own money she’s ready to spend; I think she had her chance in the 1st debate and was unable to capitalize on it.

I think O’Malley stays around until after New Hampshire and then quietly bows out, and begins planning his 2020 campaign if Hilary/Bernie loses.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

While he was never really in contention, Ron Paul earned over 20% in Iowa and came in second place in New Hampshire. He was considerably more successful politically than Rand Paul is this time. So that’s really not a relevant comparison. Cruz is a more valid comparison to the elder Paul. They both earned boatloads of money and are polling high in Iowa.

Check the coffers if you want to know who is next.

Oh no doubt. If memory serves, Ron Paul was consistently polling in third place, right behind Romney and the “anti-Romey du jour.” The comparison comes in further down the line. Ron Paul continued his campaign even after it was clear that he would not win enough delegates to become the party’s nominee, in 2012 and 2008.


Good call GrandWino, thanks!

Any guesses as to when Gilmore will drop out? At this point I wonder why he’s even sticking around.

I actually think Carson will be the next out, everyone is abandoning his campaign and there are serious ethical questions regarding his campaign financing . His debate performances are getting worse. I’m not sure Carson even makes it to Iowa. With the debate snub, Paul also might not even make it to Iowa, since he has a senate seat to defend. Huckabee and Santorum drop out after Iowa.

O’Malley drops out after getting demolished in Iowa as everyone will pick either Clinton or Sanders.

I think Iowa will claim Kasich, Fiorina, and Paul as victims.

New Hampshire will take out Bush, Christie, and Huckabee.

Paul is so pissed off right now he may be the next one out. But really, it could be any of these guys: Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Christie, Fiorina, Gilmore, Carson, or as I have increasingly come to grips with, Bush.

If I had to pick the next one to exit, I’d go with Carson. His campaign, such as it is, is in total disarray.

He’ll still stick in it until Iowa, just for the sake of making a more graceful exit. You always need to have something external to point to as the reason for withdrawing.

I would think that Paul was going to drop, based on the whole skipping the debate thing, but if he was going to withdraw based on that, he should have done it already.

One possibility is that some of these “dead” candidates might get a bump by Iowa or New Hampshire. Not by winning but by getting any noticeable support. Candidates like O’Malley and Santorum are generating such low expectations that even a few percentage points will look like a victory.

I predict Mike Huckabee as dropping out. He is more in need of dropping out than Chris Christie. But I fear he will stick around and see if he can win a deep south caucaus.

But he needs to drop more than anyone else, even Rand Paul.

How are you defining “needs”?

No one noticed his entering so they have no idea if he drops out or if he already did. Jim Gilmore is wasting his time and I would suspect no one actually works on behalf of his campaign.

By needs I mean has less chance of winning, his campaign is not doing well and has less chance than Christie. He is on par with Fiorina, Paul.

I think you are wrong, partly. While I agree that Fiorina and Paul are probably out after Iowa, Kasich is looking at NH as his lifeline.

Kasich, Bush and Christie will not withdraw until the results of both NH and SC have narrowed down the mainstream possibilities.

Neither I nor any other American could care less when Huckabee withdraws.

I expect Paul to stay in through the March 8th KY caucus. His campaign is paying for the extra cost of having it after all. It’s embarrassing to host the party and then uninvite yourself. :smiley:

You scoff, but he’s been picking up endorsement.