To me, THAT’S good government.
So, who do we have left? Trump, Cruz, Carson, Kasich, Bush, and Rubio. (And Gilmore, but for purposes of this post we’ll forget he exists.)
Carson will drop out on February 21. By that point, his campaign bank account will be bottoming out, and even if he gets into the low double digits in SC, it won’t be enough to give other people reason to give him new money.
Bush, Rubio, and Kasich will all hang in there through the Florida and Ohio winner-take-all primaries on March 15. Kasich won’t win Ohio, and will be gone on March 16. So will at least one of Bush and Rubio, quite possibly both, since only one of them can win Florida, and maybe neither of them will.
So by March 16, we’ll be down to Trump, Cruz, and possibly one of Bush or Rubio. If one of them survives, my guess is it’ll be Bush: it’s really hard to see Rubio recovering from his lengthening string of Marcobot moments.
And now Gilmore is out, making his campaign totally irrelevant instead of . . . whatever it was before that.
No doubt his dozens of supporters will be eagerly courted by all those remaining.
I don’t know why he bothered dropping out. He could have made a name for himself by staying in until the end. He wasn’t hurting anyone, he didn’t have a chance, and he wasn’t spending any money.
He spent a lot of time campaigning in NH which presumably costs some money. And according to the linked article, a lot of it was self-funded, which presumably he couldn’t afford to do indefinatley.
As for not having a chance, apparently that was the case in hindsight. But it’s been a pretty unpredictable cycle. I don’t think it was totally crazy of him to think whatever bizarre logic briefly put Carson and Carley in the spotlight might turn towards him and he could gain enough momentum to make a showing in NH.
To paraphrase John Riggins, he’s bored, he’s broke, and he’s out.
So, Bush is out, but finished ahead of Kasich and Carson. Any thoughts on how long those two stay in? It seems pretty clear that Carson has no chance, and Kasich has very little.
Kaisich seems to have already written off SC, so I doubt his poor showing there will change his plans. If anything, the end of Jeb! will likely give him so hope going forward.
He seems to be banking on picking up a bunch of midwestern states, which means he’ll hang in there till at least Michigan (March 8th) and conceivably Ohio (March 15th). I guess if he wins those, he’ll keep on chugging.
My understanding is the Carson campaign at this point is just taking money from fundraising in the evangelical community, and plowing it back into salaries for his advisors and staff, with little spending on actual campaigning. So presumably his inner-circle will try and convince him to keep their gravy-train going for as long as there’s still enough interest to keep the fundraising above the break-even point.
Soon. I predict Kasich will drop out before Super Tuesday. After all, doesn’t he have a state to run?
On the other hand, I think Carson will stay in until he physically cannot due to lack of money. Which, from what I understand, will also be pretty damn soon. But last I saw, Carson was polling in 4th place nationally even when the field was still pretty large, so he’s got more reason than a lot of candidates to keep campaigning.
Trump should put some money into the Carson campaign. 
Here is a bit on Carson’s fundraising. He still seems to be taking in two million a month, which is a big drop from what he was making last year, but still impressive given his negligible nomination chances and rapidly decreasing public profile. The article also mentions the campaign is several hundred thou in debt, which kinda sounds bad till you think that it means someone out there is still willing to lend money to his obviously hopeless campaign.
So if he feels like limping on, it seems like he can raise a few million a month from loyal evangelicals, albeit with a much reduced staff. IIRC, that’s what Santorum did, who was a semi-similar figure, albeit in a much different primary.
Kasich stays in until March 15 unless he’s demolished on Super Tuesday. Rubio is going to have a big target on his back now. I think we will be hearing a lot about Marco’s laziness in the senate, questionable teaching job, and money problems. Rubio had that one debate meltdown and there’s potential for another one.