538 has no predictions for the other states. Marist did a poll of Tennessee last week - Trump 40, Cruz 22, Rubio 19, Carson 9, Kasich 6.
Polling in other Super Tuesday states is sketchy and not particularly recent for the most part, but it does suggest that Rubio could win a couple of caucus states.
Ben Carson 25.0%
Marco Rubio 19.0%
Donald Trump 17.0%
Relax, that was from the last poll done in November. Quinnipiac should had made a more recent poll and not let that one hang around, I wonder now if Quinnipiac is the sole reason why Ben Carson is hanging around.
It sounds like there’s no real way to figure out who won Colorado anytime soon, anyway. (It’s too complicated for me to completely get my head around, let alone summarize here.)
I’ll go on a limb here and say Trump wins everything, Texas too. Cruz and Carson drop out tomorrow. Rubio and Kasich stay on long enough to lose their home states.
Even if Rubio gets totally creamed, its worth it for him to keep pretending. Even as dim as the chance appears to be, Trump may yet burst his own balloon with his big fat pie hole, and leave Rubio as the last man standing. Naturally, it disturbs me deeply that this may have such a disastrous effect on the Republican Party.
No, really, its a physical peculiarity of mine that racking sobs sound so much like chuckling…
Hahahahahaaa!! That’s some limb. Thanks for giving me the best belly laugh I have had all year.
I don’t see Cruz losing Texas, and even if he did, he’s too much of an egomaniac to drop out.
Carson is in a perpetual peyote-addled state, or an alternate dimension. I don’t think he will drop out because I don’t think he remembers what he is running for anymore.
No way Cruz bails this year. Trump is going to have some sort of blowup, or reveal that the whole thing is a trolling attempt at some point, and step aside. Then it’s anyone’s game - because Rubio isn’t going to be able to shake the perception people have of him. Cruz is in it for at least another month or two.
I realize it’s a stretch, but darn it all, the laws of conventional politics don’t apply to Trump. If Trump falls into the water, Cruz and Rubio get wet. So why not take advantage of the instinctive human disgust for Cruz and say Trump can beat him in Texas?
I agree that Trump might sweep this, but Cruz and Rubio aren’t going anywhere. The establishment is going to do everything it can to stop Trump, and one of those two will be the beneficiary if they manage it. And there’s always the possibility of a contested convention, especially if the lawsuit over Trump university gets ugly.
No, I’m saying there’s a higher than average chance that Trump blows up in some way because everything about him is unconventional, including his temperament and motivations. There’s a much higher likelihood that Trump is going to suddenly leave the race than there is with the leading candidate in any other year. So there’s a lot more reason to stick around with a small amount of support to see if things blow up.
There’s also not a clear #2 who would take over that role. Rubio is what the establishment is pinning their hopes on, but they don’t seem like they can force feed him to people.
Cruz will have a reason to stay in well after 3rd place candidates typically drop out.
Edit: I did say “is going to”, so I made it sound more sure than I am. I do think something is going to happen that ultimately stops Trump from taking the nomination, most likely him finding some reason to step aside, but I know that’s a common prediction. In any case, no one with any sort of reasonable support is going to drop out anytime soon. We’re in uncharted territory.
I don’t know, very low? I’d have to dig through historical delegate counts at this point in previous elections. Are you questioning the idea that Trump has a higher likelihood of self-destructing than candidates in his position do historically?
Since his inevitable blow-up has been anticipated for about seven months now, the odds seem rather against its happening in the next two weeks. And after that, he should have such a commanding lead in delegates that he’d have no reason to blow up.
Sure, I still think: he can’t really want to have the responsibility of being President, right? I think it would be pretty cool if he got up to give his acceptance speech, and it consisted of mooning the hall. But the longer the charade goes on, if it is one, the greater the chance that he’s decided to live it.
He *has *had a number of blow-up moments already - but he’s failed to blow up. It doesn’t look like anything could blow him up, not in the primaries. He was right to say he could go shoot somebody out on Fifth Avenue and it wouldn’t hurt his numbers.
I don’t know a good source but I am coming to the conclusion that CNN isn’t. How can they have “experts” on that are completely ignoring the actually delegate allocation rules? Someone on CNN just told me that we have to remember that these are all proportional states so Trump will have to win by a lot to really pull ahead in the delgate count. No he doesn’t!
Just rewound to double check. CNN executive producer on politics Mark Preston said it. Jesus Christ. He didn’t say proportional, but he was still wrong.
Thanks for giving me the best belly laugh I have had all year. 