The GOP Super Tuesday Thread

Doesn’t it? If Trump wins by a little bit in each state, he gets proportional delegates so he won’t be ahead too much.

I’m going to enjoy watching the GOP’s head explode tomorrow morning. I have no love for Trump, but even less so for the likes of Cruz and Rubio. Trump’s projecting to win all but Texas. There’s a vicarious thrill watching Frankenstein’s monster rampage over his creators :smiley:

My go-to is HuffPo. Their updated-every-60-second counts are excellent. they also do live updates.

No, YogSothsoth! I’ve mentioned in a couple of threads that many of the Super Tuesday states are “winner take most”. The highest statewide nominee gets two thirds of the at-large delegates and each district doles out their delegates the same way. Second place get 1/3. I don’t blame people not knowing this but the goddamn CNN political executive producer should.

Texas for example: Texas Republican Delegation 2016
(Scroll below chart for rules)

The Democratic ones are all proportional.

Heh. Sadly, same here. :slight_smile:

On a completely unrelated and irrelevant note, Yog, did you change the spelling of your user name? I could have sworn it was **YogSosoth **sometime in the past, or am I confusing you with someone else?

That move is known as a ‘Perot’, I think. Perot was another billionaire who went a long way on bluster and populist rhetoric, then flamed out spectacularly when he claimed that the Republicans had sabotaged his daughter’s wedding for some reason.

However, Trump seems to have been inoculated against this. There have already been multiple moments where he said or did something incredibly stupid that convinced the pundits he had just shot his chances to hell, but after each one his popularity just increased.

Maybe Ashton Kucher is behind this. America, you’ve been punked.

I am questioning that premise. The Donald is playing a role and Leo should give over that Oscar.

Mostly right. Absent anyone getting 50% statewide, the at-large delegates are distributed proportionately among those clearing the cutoff (20% in Texas). The thing that makes it winner-take-most is the winner of each Congressional district getting at least 2 of the 3 delegates for that district.

The five SEC states (TX, GA, AL, AR, TN) voting today all do some pretty close variation of this. And the more populous a state is, the more of its delegates are allocated due to the CD results. So Texas and Georgia are very winner-take-most.

538 has a pretty good guide.

And like you, I can’t believe that CNN’s commentators don’t even understand the delegate rules. If you’re gonna do horse-race coverage, then at least help people know who’s winning the damn race. :smack:

Polls close in Georgia, Vermont, and Virginia at 7pm, which should give us all a sample of who’s winning.

This morning’s paper had Cruz leading in Texas AND Arkansas.

Has Huckabee endorsed anybody?

But his lead in both states is kinda shaky. Arkansas doesn’t matter so much, but if Trump beats him in Texas, that’s gonna be a bit of an earthquake. My WAG is that Cruz will win, but not by enough that he’ll have the overwhelming edge in the CD-apportioned delegates that one would have expected until recently.

You’re right, I shorthanded that in my head. But yeah the fact remains, a smallish lead can make a big difference.

The Duggars, a few times.

So its sorta true, but needs explanation. That’s kind of a weird way of doing it. I guess I can see why some TV people shorten it to just “proportional” delegates.

Nope, I’ve never changed my name. You’re probably trapped in some Berenstein Bear parallel universe :wink:

Well, I would disagree that it’s sort of true. Keeping Texas as an example, only 47 of the 155 delegates are assigned proportionally and that is only for candidates that get over 20%. Effectively that means the top three will split those 47. The othe 108 are decided district by district with the top two splitting the 3 each district gets. So it is outright wrong imho to say Trump (or Cruz) needs to win by a lot to get a big delegate bump.

nm

So, what time should we begin seeing results?

VT closes at 7 Eastern time.

I just arrived at my polling place. I live in Texas, but I’ve never seen it like this. There are about 100 people in line to vote Republican and only 3 people waiting to vote in the Democratic primary. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Interesting…I just voted here in Alabama, at a Church, and the only signs (about 6-8 of them) to be seen as you turned into the parking lot were for Cruz…none of the others. They were not there Monday when I drove past, so they were probably just put there today.

The rolls in my voting area looked to be about 2:1 Republican based on the numbers where I had to sign in. Voting seemed light, compared to the General election, but that is no big surprise.

CNN’s showing Truimp as the projected winner in GA. Still only about 1% of the vote in in GA and VA, so what numbers they’ve got so far aren’t particularly meaningful.