The last primary is over! Let's handicap the Congressional elections!

[Captain_Amazing]

@BobLibDem

The Times site now shows 47 safe Republican Senate seats and 2 leaning Republican seats. The tossups are RI, OH, MO, NJ, and TN. Now I’m thinking that the Dems will sweep all of these plus snag VA, making a Democratic control of 52-48.

I agree with most of that, although I think that TN will go Republican, and I’m not sure about New Jersey…Menendez has the money, but he’s being hurt by accusations of ethics violations, as well as the general corruption of the Jersey Democratic party.

Regarding Tennessee, I would have agreed that the Democrats would have taken it if the Republicans nominated anybody other than Bob Corker. Corker’s a strong candidate, and moderate enough that he won’t turn people off.

[BobLibDem]

@Ravenman

Disappointed that I missed out on the action with Bricker, I’ll lay a wager of any amount you wish that should this situation arise, Lieberman would absolutely vote Democratic. In fact, I’d suggest a wager of any amount you wish, the bigger the better, and I’ll even lay ten to one odds that Lieberman votes Democratic.

Unfortunately, there’s almost no chance that Dems will reach 51 seats, so it is surely a moot bet.

I do so hate to disappoint, but I am not a big time gambler. The amount that I am willing to bet wouldn’t cover postage. I would love to be proven wrong, since that would give the Democrats the Senate. I think there is such animosity between Lieberman and the Democrats that if the situation arose, Joe might jump at the chance to bite back.

[BobLibDem]

@John Mace

I want in on that action, too! Maybe **Bob **can clarify if he was talking only about impeachment wrt Lienerman’s vote, or if he meant “in general”. Let’s remember that JL’s history is that he votes 90% of the time with the majority of Democracts. Of course, impeachment comes from the House, not the Senate, so any vote by JL would be for conviction, not impeachment itself.

I was talking about the vote to organize the Senate.

[Ravenman]

@BobLibDem

I think there is such animosity between Lieberman and the Democrats that if the situation arose, Joe might jump at the chance to bite back.

See, but there isn’t. There’s animosity between Lieberman and Move On, but not bewteen Lieberman and his colleagues.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=2401547&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

[BobLibDem]

@Ravenman

See, but there isn’t. There’s animosity between Lieberman and Move On, but not bewteen Lieberman and his colleagues.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=2401547&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

I hope you’re right and would love the chance to be proven wrong. But I can’t help but wonder how he feels about some of his colleagues campaigning for Lamont.

[Captain_Amazing]

@BobLibDem

I hope you’re right and would love the chance to be proven wrong. But I can’t help but wonder how he feels about some of his colleagues campaigning for Lamont.

Liberman’s no babe in the woods. He’s got to realize that the Democrats pretty much have to campaign for the party nominee, regardless of their feelings about Lieberman or Lamont. I don’t see any reason to doubt he’s going to caucus with the Democrats.

[BobLibDem]

OK, you’re right and I’m wrong. I’m now counting on Joementum’s vote to organize the Senate if we wind up where it matters.

[John_Mace]

Joe is not going to jump ship. Remember in the primary that he the backing of all the big guns in the Democratic party, and several of them actively campaigned for him. Lamont had Maxine Waters and Danny Glover. Now, of course the Democratic party memebers had to switch their outward allegence to Lamont once he won the primary, but that’s just politics. If Joe were splitting the vote in a contested state that brought a possible Republican win into play, then that would be a different story. As it is, either Lieberman or Lamont is certain to win the general.

[wonky]

@BobLibDem

The Times site now shows 47 safe Republican Senate seats and 2 leaning Republican seats. The tossups are RI, OH, MO, NJ, and TN. Now I’m thinking that the Dems will sweep all of these plus snag VA, making a Democratic control of 52-48.

The TV ads I’m seeing for Sherrod Brown are actually kind of funny. It’s an attempt to paint DeWine as a pawn of Bush, and the last photograph shows DeWine and Bush, both with their mouths wide open, and both looking like they have mouthsful of rotting teeth. It actually made me stop TiVo and rewind just to watch it.

DeWine has come under attack from some of the ultra right wingers, so he’s being pressed from both sides. Honestly, while I would prefer a Democrat, DeWine is not an ultraconservative by any means. (Neither is Voinovich, of course.)

[Frostillicus]

@Captain Amazing

Regarding Tennessee, I would have agreed that the Democrats would have taken it if the Republicans nominated anybody other than Bob Corker. Corker’s a strong candidate, and moderate enough that he won’t turn people off.

I wouldn’t be too sure about that.

Greenspan - Presidential gift

[BrainGlutton]

Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) has resigned following disclosures of his sending intimate e-mails to teenage male pages. An astounding hypocrisy considering that:

Foley was chairman of the Congressional Missing and Exploited Children’s Caucus and was active in child protection issues, including pushing for legislation to protect children from exploitation by adults over the Internet and further restrictions of online child pornography. In 2003, he led a charge to criticize a Tampa-area nudist camp that permitted underage campers.

This might or might not throw that seat to the Dems, specifically to Foley’s opponent [“Might not” because [url=http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/preview/congdist/FL16_109.gif]Florida’s House District 16](]Tim Mahoney.[/url) is heavily gerrymandered and safely Republican, and there might be time to put forth another Pub for the seat. But will this have any effect on other races, or the Congressional election as a whole?

[jsc1953]

@BrainGlutton

“Might not” because Florida’s House District 16 is heavily gerrymandered and safely Republican…

:eek:

Wow. That map could be used in textbooks, to illustrate the concept of “gerrymandering”.

[BrainGlutton]

@jsc1953

:eek:

Wow. That map could be used in textbooks, to illustrate the concept of “gerrymandering”.

Well, we the voters of Florida would have had a chance to vote in November on a constitutional amendment to take the redistricting power away from the legislature and give it to an independent bipartisan commission, but our rassafrackin’-rassafrass Supreme Court . . . It’s just too painful to talk about . . . [sob] :mad: :mad: :mad:

[BrainGlutton]

BTW, I’ve started a separate thread on Foley’s resignation and its implications.

[John_Mace]

@jsc1953

:eek:

Wow. That map could be used in textbooks, to illustrate the concept of “gerrymandering”.

Eh. That ain’t nuthin’. Check out this district. Yes, that’s disctrict-- singular.

[BrainGlutton]

The latest polls have the Dems leading the Pubs by 11% on a “generic ballot” for the HoR.

Of course, that’s not how we actually get to vote.

[BobLibDem]

Those generic ballot polls are useless. What they mean when they release those is that they don’t have the money to conduct polls in 435 congressional districts.

[BrainGlutton]

electoral-vote.com, which looks at the races state-by-state and, in some cases, district-by-district, today is predicting a tie or near-tie in both houses:

As of today, we have an incredibly tight race in each chamber of Congress. The Republicans are ahead 50 to 49 in the Senate, with New Jersey, which hasn’t elected a Republican senator in decades, currently a tie. If Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) pulls it off, we will have a 50-50 Senate, which will mean no more hunting for ducks, quail, and lawyers for Dick Cheney. He’ll be needed to break ties all the time.

The best prediction for the house is 217 to 217, with one tie (NM-01). All in all, it couldn’t get much closer.

[Damuri_Ajashi]

@jsc1953

:eek:

Wow. That map could be used in textbooks, to illustrate the concept of “gerrymandering”.

You should see the Texan one.

[BrainGlutton]

@col_10022

You should see the Texan one.

This is getting competitive . . . perhaps we should all just unzip our flies and measure our gerrymanders . . .