Well, I’ll stick my neck out on this one—not race by race, but the overall result:
The official Kimstu Prediction is that the Republicans will retain majorities in both the House and the Senate, if only by a whisker. I would love to be proved wrong but I don’t think I will be.
Actually, from a purely partisan perspective I almost don’t want to be, because at this point I think any Democratic control of Congress would merely provide ass-cover for the Republicans for the next two years. IMO, so many things have been fucked up so severely by the current government that even the most principled and energetic Democratic-majority Congress in the world (and that’s a far cry from the Democratic-majority Congress we might actually get, mind you) couldn’t do much to fix them.
A Dem majority would simply give Republicans the opportunity to say “Huh! The other guys don’t have any good ideas either, all they can do is criticize!” Part of me would rather just leave the Republicans carrying the can for their whole mess, in the hope of provoking a massive throw-the-bums-out orgy in 2008.
On the other hand…if opposition-party sanity or even sheer partisan gridlock could slow down the current power-frenzied madness, it would be worth it. So on the whole, I still hope my prediction is wrong.
I predict a close race in both Houses with Republican ekeing out narrow wins in both cases, thanks to very careful rigging of critical elections.
Just like the last two election cycles for Prez. Except it’s now critical in Congress. That’s why you’re not hearing much about Karl Rove right now, despite all the stuff that needs spinning. Rove is a very busy Bushite.
If Liberman were to win (and he has a substantial lead at this point), can he declare himself a Democrat again even though he is running as an Independent? Since Congressmen can switch parties, I don’t see why not. Just wonder if we’ll be seeing Joe Lieberman, I-CT or D-CT, if he does win.
Be funny if he wins and declares himself a Republican instead for the slap in the face he got. Yeah, I know…not likely to happen, but would be poetic justice IMHO…
Well, I disagree that he got a slap in the face. The NetRoots folks were cheering Lamont on, but most of the Dems in Congress were pulling for Lieberman. After the primary, they had to switch to Lamont. That’s just the way things are, so if JL feels slighted over that, he’s pretty damn naive.
On a totally unrelated topic, why are the ads at the bottom about finding a Soul Mate…in THIS thread? lol.
Anyway…
We’ll just have to disagree then. I think the ‘slap’ was the fact that the Dem’s in his state decided to bring in someone else…while JL is obviously the leading candidate (he still is, even though he’s an Independant now). I think it would be wonderfully ironic if JL wins and the Dems end up losing a seat because of their own stupidity.
I wasn’t really refering to the Dem’s in Congress though…sorry about that.
There are no rules about switching parties once elected to Congress. Lieberman could remain independent, continue to be a Democrat, or start the American branch of the Monster Raving Loony Party. Senator Bob Smith went from being a Republican to an Independent back to being a Republican, with a brief flirtation with the Taxpayer’s Party, all within a couple of months in 1999.
There’s a couple of gambling sites where you can bet on the outcome of this year’s elections. Up until last week, the oddsmakers were giving the Republicans a 55% to 60% chance of retaining both houses of congress. Now they are giving the Democrats a 50%-55% chance of taking over the House.
I don’t know if this country is just so caught up on sex that they everything else gets trumped or if this is just the straw that broke the camel’s back and convinced some swing voters that there isn’t anything particularly holy about the Republicans (its not just Foley, the Hastert involvement seems to be a big issue).
A part of me kind of agreed with you. You can tell that the next two years are going to be rough for this country no matter what. I just hope people remember how we got here.
This kind of drop can have devastating effect. Change the votes in many districts by just a few percent and the results come out entirely different. I think a 15 seat House shift is a foregone conclusion, now I think the question is whether this grows to a 25 or 50 seat shift.
I wouldn’t assume MO to go Dem. The ad campaign is now really starting to take their digs. The Republicans seem to be going all out here (saying that we’ll all be attacked because she doesn’t support the now illegal NSA wiretapping program… among other things), and Talent has quite a stash of funds. McCaskill has been focusing on the rural voters here, which is the smart thing for a Dem to do here in the midwest. Talent had a very good reputation, though I think he pissed alot of that away over the last 2+ years. He was a true, upstanding public servant till the Republican party got its hooks in him and he started having to play the game.
Does anyone have some good perspectives on this very close Missouri race? The polls all seem to be within the margin of error.
So did anyone catch Meet the Press this weekend? Both Missouri candidates (Talent and McCaskill) where on with Tim Russert answering questions. Transcript’s here
My brief comments:
I thought talent looked silly on Iraq and stem cell research. He said he’d still go to war in iraq if he knew then what we all know today. He pretty much said that doing Iraq anyway but his way was ‘weak on terror’. He also seemed uncomfortable with the whole stem cell issue, almost like he didn’t understand the process well enough to have a solid, educated opinion on the subject.
McCaskill looked pretty good except when questioned about a stupid comment she made back when katrina hit - something about bush not caring because they were all poor and black. I thought she looked strong and intelligent other than that (though I’m not exactly unbiased here )
I think both candidates did an excellent job of framing the questions and answers in terms of Missouri voters and issues that would affect them.
He knows what the religious right wants to hear on stem cells. I doubt many in congress understand stem cell research. They know about snowflakes and checks from the Religious Right.
The very fact that it is unsupported by solid evidence makes such a sweeping statement stupid, but that’s beside the point (I thought the question itself was rather irrelevant and was just a way of even the score with her for the amount of grilling Talent was receiving). I’m more interested in people’s take on the entire exchange on MTP. Check the transcript
Looks like the walls are starting to tumble down for the Pubbies. Congressional Quarterly is reporting that the numbers are going badly for the Pubbies. Specifically, as a result of changes caused by Foley’s Follies and Hastert’s Humbuggery, the CQ Balance of Power Scorecard now shows the Pubbies holding a minority in both the House and the Senate after the next election.
Rove is going to have to work like hell to fix this one. And ‘fix’ is the word, alrighty.
Yeah, I know…not likely to happen, but would be poetic justice IMHO…
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