The Major League Baseball Playoff and Predictions Thread

Obviously, Lamar Mundane is just channeling John Kerry (scroll down to the 5th paragraph)

It’s my contention that looking at season-long numbers doesn’t really equate to what is happening now (and I’m not just talking about the streak). On the morning of May 22nd, the Rockies were 18-27 while the Red Sox were 30-14. Since then to the end of the regular season (not counting the 1 game playoff) the Rockies went 71-46 with the best ERA in the National League while the Red Sox went 66-52.

They really were a different team after that date. Three of the five starters changed due to injuries, as well as the closer and the catcher. I don’t know the run differential from that date, but I suspect it is a lot narrower.

Sorry, I get those two guys mixed up. They’re always mentioned side by side whenever the Boston offense is discussed.

Okay but let’s look at after the break.

                                 Colorado     RedSox

gp 75 75
Runs Against 320 311
ER 292 294
ERA 3.86 3.98

Pretty damn close. Colorado lost starters early in the season, and it took them a little to get it sorted out, but they have been steady for half a season.

(It is a little curious how a great defensive team is giving that many unearned runs. They must really time the errors they do have, to give away runs :frowning: )



                                     Colorado     RedSox
gp                                 75                 75
Runs Against                       320                311
ER                                 292                294
ERA                                3.86               3.98


See if this looks better since I missed edit window.

Ya know, I’ll respect this. I even had a huge response to your little dig there, but I’ll let that go.

I appreciate it. I really am in “Defensive Bitch” mode. Didn’t mean to dig at you. Think of it as avoiding poking an injured puma caught in a trap with a stick.

Heh.

And here I was, thinking, “Did I miss a late season call-up or something?” :smiley:

OK, but that addresses the pitching staffs as a whole, which is obviously relevant but not entirely so. To put it simply: would you disagree that the #1 and #2 starting pitchers for the Red Sox are significantly better than their counterparts for the Rockies? Given that those four guys will account for more than half of the starts in the series - more if the Sox decide to pitch Beckett three times, which they very well might if the series goes 7 games, is this not a fairly substantial advantage?

I’ll give you Beckett, he’s been better than anybody recently, although I don’t think he’ll go on three days rest. Schilling isn’t the same guy he was in '04. He’s only been OK, and he gets lit up with some regularity. Top to bottom, this is the best lineup he’ll see all year. The Rockies lit him up in June right after he pitched a complete game one hitter against Oakland. They roughed up Beckett the same series, probably his worst outing of the year.

I’m more worried about how the rookies Jimenez and Morales are going to fare. There is some chance that Aaron Cook will replace Morales for the series.

Edit: Jimenez will go against Schilling in game two. I am comfortable with that matchup as a Rockies fan.

FWIW, the Sox announced yesterday that Tim Wakefield won’t be on the World Series roster due to his shoulder problems. They haven’t confirmed who will pitch game 4, but John Lester seems to be the top candidate. Wakefield was 17-12 with a 4.76 ERA, so losing him won’t be good for the Sox.

I dunno. I think not having someone with a 4.76 ERA start is a good thing, not a bad thing (not that I know Lester’s stats).

Rockies vs. Red Sox, Boston, June 12-14, 2007:

Game 1 vs. Tim Wakefield - Bos 2 CO 1. Wakefield 4 hits in 8 innings.
Game 2 vs. Curt Schilling - CO 12 Bos 2
Game 3 vs. Josh Beckett - CO 7 Bos 1

Do you consider a single start in June predictive of a start in the WS?

I am so freakin excited. I’m like a 6 year old about to pee my pants. My team is in the Series!

I think game 1 is really crucial. If they can get to Becket early, and the the confidence they can hit him, and let Francis pitch comfortably and controlled, I think they can take the Game and the series. But if they let him get in a groove, all those kids could suddenly realize they are in new world and tighten up. That would get things out of hand quickly. The starters have to pitch good innings too. The thought of Herges with his “Ehh, here ya go, here’s the ball, get yourself out” pitching style against that line-up in Fenway really scares me.
8 hours to go :cool:

When Wakefield’s on, he’s nearly unhittable, and he’s seen the elephant. Lester’s ERA is about the same, and he’s only 23.

I’d love to have Wakefield available for long-inning relief in case one of the starters (say, Lester) gets into early trouble, but I’ll live with him off the roster.

Another optional lineup for the Sox in Denver is to play Ortiz at first and Youk at third, and sit Lowell. But since Lowell’s been hot for the last month, I like the idea of putting Youk in the outfield much better – even if you have to sit Drew and use him as a PH later in the game.

I think it’s indicative that the Rockies didn’t do well against the only knuckleballer they saw all year. They are relieved not to have to face him again.

As the old saying goes, you’re supposed to start counting in April. Studies have shown that the team that “finished strongest” doesn’t have any advantage that isn’t borne out by the overall season numbers.

Wakefield is out for the Series. Kind of sad about that, Wake has always been one of my favorites. Lester is set to be the starter in his stead.

My pick is Sox in 6. I want them to win at home.