And I haven’t claimed it’s doing rote data retrieval (besides, I thought that rote data retrieval, by your lights, does likewise suffice for mental states?). It’s predicting the most likely following token through its knowledge of relative frequencies of tokens in a large corpus of texts. Whether that suffices for any understanding—any at all—is exactly the question at issue.
It’s certainly able to make predictions and extrapolate, as the theory of mind experiments, etc. show. I gave it this prompt, using made up words:
In this world there are two kinds of objects, flurbs and prolls. Each has the property of slorbness, either gahn slorbness or ruk slorbness. A flurb has ghan slorbness. A proll has ruk slorbness.
Objects with the same slorbness create a sound when they touch.
Objects with different slobrness create light when they touch.
Given these rules, I will present scenarios to you and you describe the outcome.
I had a long and interesting conversation with it, giving it scenarios where an even or odd number of flurbs and slorbs combined and asked what would happen, adding to the rules (e.g. majority slorbness rules with a group, but only while they’re touching), etc. It faltered a bit when I introduced superposition to “slorbness” though.
It’s internal model seems to be able to work generically enough with words it’s not seen before. It has just a deep an understanding of “slorbness” as I did, since I was making it up as I went along. Seems plausible that once a LLM’s training and internal state size is large enough, deeper patterns and relations between tokens, sets of tokens, etc. emerge that allow it to exhibit higher orders of “intelligence”.
This is pretty impressive with just text training data. Imagine when a larger system has ingested every movie and TV show, recordings of plays, video news, etc. where it can make relations between the spoken word and images, developing even more accurate models of the world.