The Official Predict the Presidential Election thread!

In My Humble Opinion
21

This is almost my prediction, but #3 will only be 52.2%

22

  1. McCain.

  2. 290

  3. 53%

  4. All

  5. PA

23

Hey, somebody’s got to be the outlier. Besides, I have a feeling that the polls aren’t adequately accounting for increased turnout among certain demographics. Republicans aren’t enthusiastic about McCain, and Hispanics and blacks love Obama. It could make a difference in certain key locations. :slight_smile:

24

1. Who do you think will win the election? Obama/Biden

2. How many electoral votes do you think the winner will have? 395.

3. What percent of the popular vote do you think the winner will get? 57%

4. Which of the following battleground states do you think the winner will pick up?
a. Florida
b. North Carolina
e. Ohio

5. Are there any states that you think will be a big shocker and go in a direction not widely believed possible?
No, there’s too much polling going on for anything really shocking to happen.

25
  1. Obama will win, yay!
  2. He’ll get at least 300, maybe 350
  3. Maybe 52-56%

Florida - Mc Cain
North Carolina - Obama
Missouri - McCain
Indiana - McCain
Ohio - Obama
5. Are there any states that you think will be a big shocker and go in a direction not widely believed possible?
I think there will be issues in Florida again.

26

  1. Who do you think will win the election?
    Senator McCain :(:(:frowning:

  2. How many electoral votes do you think the winner will have?
    280 or thereabouts

  3. What percent of the popular vote do you think the winner will get?
    Dead on at 50%

27

So, you’re saying that Obama will hit 395 EV, without Indiana or Missouri, and without any long-shot states? Where is he picking up all of those votes, then?

28

I’ll take Obama with 353, scoring all the “battlegrounds” except Indiana and Missouri (and the various longshots mentioned of late such as North Dakota and Georgia).

29

  1. Who do you think will win the election? Obama

  2. How many electoral votes do you think the winner will have? 353

  3. What percent of the popular vote do you think the winner will get? 56.6%

  4. Which of the following battleground states do you think the winner will pick up?
    a. Florida
    b. North Carolina
    e. Ohio

  5. Are there any states that you think will be a big shocker and go in a direction not widely believed possible? No. Because I would not be big shocked if PA went for McCain or NC or GA went for Obama

30

I arrived at that number by going to realclearpolitics and playing around with their electoral map. I didn’t do anything particularly radical - I looked at the polling numbers for the tossups and picked a color based on them. Of the battlegrounds, I have FL, OH, PA, NC, VA, NM, CO, and NV going blue, and GA, IN, MT, ND, and MO going red. Final tally is 395-249 for Obama/Biden.

31

Something is wrong with the numbers. There are only 538 electoral votes. You have 644…

32
  1. I didn’t see IN in that list. McCain holds that.
33

Hm, you’re right. I didn’t think too critically about this, obviously, I just copied what realclearpolitics gave me.

Okay, I just redid it and came up with a totally different answer (apparently their software is functioning better today) and after adding it up to make sure the math makes sense, my answer is: 353-185 Obama.

34

I still have a nervous tic from the disaster of the last two elections, but will go out on a limb:

  1. Who do you think will win the election? Obama

  2. How many electoral votes do you think the winner will have? Over 300.

  3. What percent of the popular vote do you think the winner will get? Over 51%

  4. Which of the following battleground states do you think the winner will pick up?
    a. Florida: Yes, by about 3%
    b. North Carolina: Yes
    c. Missouri: Yes, but only by about 1% and called late in the evening.
    d. Indiana: Hopefully, but kinda doubt it so: No.
    e. Ohio: Yes, but surprise of surprise, there will be voting machine irregularities.
    f. My home state of Nevada: Yes

  5. Are there any states that you think will be a big shocker and go in a direction not widely believed possible?
    Georgia might take longer to call than planned and I wouldn’t be surprised if **Arizona **might not be called for a couple of hours after the polls close. Obama will probably lose both states, but by very small amounts.

35

This is the last day to make your official prediction. Winner will be announced and gets bragging rights!

36

  1. Obama

  2. Over 320

  3. 53.5%

  4. a. Florida
    b. North Carolina
    c. Missouri
    e. Ohio

  5. You heard it here first, Obama takes NY! In other words, No.

37

  1. Obama.

  2. 305.

  3. 51%

  4. Florida (and I also agree that he’s going to nab Nevada, even if it wasn’t on this list).

  5. No.

38

  1. Obama

  2. 325

  3. 52%

  4. Florida and Ohio

  5. Obama takes Utah :slight_smile: not really

39

Probably my high point here (which means it’s all downhill now…) :smiley:

  1. Obama
  2. 348
  3. 54%
  4. b/c/d/e
  5. No