I’d actually not mind that so much. The pack going ahead or not based on their own (measly) abilities would certainly be more satisfying than being dependent on the foibles of other games elsewhere.
Chicago’s got nothing to play for other than the pleasure of beating the Pack, and a lot to lose if their starters get injured, so the Packers have a chance a bit better than that of a snowball in hell.
If the Packers beat the Bears tonight, they’ll both be 8-8 overall, 7-5 within the NFC, and 1-4 versus common opponents; so the wild card determination will go to the final tie-breaker, strength of schedule, which the Giants currently own. What the Pack need is for teams that they’ve played but the Giants haven’t to win, while teams that the Giants have played but the Packers haven’t to lose. Detroit and Minnesota fall into that first group, and Dallas and St. Louis into the second, and those teams are playing each other, so those outcomes make a huge difference. If those both fall Green Bay’s way, then the overall outcome of the other games that each involve one team each that impact the tie-breaker will control, the Pack needing five of those six to fall their way to get in …
(1-4 versus common opponents? Jesus. How are either of these teams even in the running? :dubious: )
I’ve always heard that the Packers are kind of the US equivalent of the Saskatchewan Roughriders - community owned, fanatical fans, etc. Seeing the above calculation for the Packers to make the playoffs just confirms it - I’ve lost track of the number of times I’ve heard, late in the season, that the Riders “still have a mathematical chance”… “we just have to run the table…” etc.
By the way, QtM, how did Jon Ryan do on the team this year (new place-kicker, originally from Saskatchewan). Did he make much of an impression on the fans?
Just one correction: It isn’t Strength of Schedule at issue, it’s Strength of Victory. Strength of Schedule (combined winning percentage of teams played) comes next after SoV (combined winning percentage of teams beaten).
There is no way that the Packers are making the playoffs; not only must Detroit win, but so must Arizona over San Diego. And last I looked, St. Louis was making Minnesota look as bad as they are; the Vikings must win for the Pack to advance.
There have been THREE threads about the Packers and the playoffs this week. No thread about any other team, that I’ve seen. Boy, do we Packer fans accept reality poorly, or what??
I don’t know about that. According to the advanced stats of Football Outsiders, since 2000 Favre has been a pretty good QB. His ranks in DPAR* since then: 13th, 5th 16th, 11th, 7th, 15th, 13th. Most of that time he’s been on average or below average teams.
= DPAR is Defense-Adjusted Points Above Replacement. So, for example, this year the Packers’ passing game has been worth about 36 points more than you’d expect if they had a typical backup running the offense.
Favre’s interception to TD ratio clearly ranks him in the lower ranks any more. He throws balls way too often when he shouldn’t, taking away chances for his team to score, and offering his opposition better field position than they should have.
He also has mediocre passing completion stats now. Look at this year (56%) compared to his career (over 60%).
It isn’t that he should have retired. It’s that his coaches since Holmgren haven’t had the guts to tell the great Favre not to force the ball into coverage. Now, he just needs to move on and let the understudy start actually doing good things for us.