My thought when I saw the list was “One of these is not like the other” and it was The Kids Are All Right. But not because I’m a hater, but because I don’t think of it as a comedy, but rather a family drama with some humorous moments. I liked all the movies on it (well, except for Kids, and I haven’t seen Burlesque yet) but really, that’s a pretty pathetic list. The Tourist and Alice are not really comedies either. I’d have to do some research to figure out what comedy films they missed. Just off the top of my head, It’s Kind of a Funny Story which is not that much of a comedy but more of a comedy than others on the list, Brand Nue Dae is funny and it’s a musical, Made In China is pretty funny. Hell, Made in Dagenham, why the hell isn’t Made in Dagenham on the list? It’s a serious movie with far far far more humorous moments than most of the others. Kick-Ass could be on that list. I’m sure there are others.
And come on Love and Other Drugs is NOT a comedy, just because it has some humorous moments. They just really wanted to nominate Jake and Anne for something. They’re both great in the movie, so I guess I can understand.
I’m going to post the BFCA list, then go to sleep.
Another Year – Mike Leigh Black Swan – Mark Heyman and Andres Heinz and John McLaughlin The Fighter – Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson (Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson) Inception – Christopher Nolan The Kids Are All Right – Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg The King’s Speech – David Seidler
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours – Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle The Social Network – Aaron Sorkin The Town – Ben Affleck, Peter Craig and Sheldon Turner Toy Story 3 – Michael Arndt (Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich) True Grit – Joel Coen & Ethan Coen Winter’s Bone – Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini
“I See the Light” – performed by Mandy Moore & Zachary Levi/written by Alan Menken & Glenn Slater – Tangled
“If I Rise” – performed by Dido and A.R. Rahman/music by A.R. Rahman/lyrics by Dido Armstrong and Rollo Armstrong – 127 Hours
“Shine” – performed and written by John Legend – Waiting for Superman
“We Belong Together” – performed and written by Randy Newman – Toy Story 3
“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me Yet” – performed by Cher/written by Diane Warren – Burlesque
Here are the Screen Actors Guild nominees. They’re the first really important Oscar indicators, because while not all SAG members are members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS, the Oscar people), almost all if not all members of the Acting branch of AMPAS are Screen Actors Guild members. So this is the first indication of what some members of AMPAS are thinking. The Guild awards are the only ones that really matter when trying to pick Oscar nominees and winners.
The Screen Actors Guild presents nominations for both theatrical films and television, but these are only the film nominees. I didn’t do links because, really, there are links for just about all of these elsewhere in the thread.
2010-11 Screen Actors Guild nominees
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Black Swan (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Vincent Cassel / Thomas Leroy
Barbara Hershey / Erica Sayers
Mila Kunis / Lily
Natalie Portman / Nina Sayers
Winona Ryder / Beth Macintyre
The Fighter (Paramount Pictures)
Amy Adams / Charlene Fleming
Christian Bale / Dicky Eklund
Melissa Leo / Alice Ward
Jack Mcgee / George Ward
Mark Wahlberg / Micky Ward
The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features)
Annette Bening / Nic
Josh Hutcherson / Laser
Julianne Moore / Jules
Mark Ruffalo / Paul
Mia Wasikowska / Joni
The King’S Speech (The Weinstein Company)
Anthony Andrews / Stanley Baldwin
Helena Bonham Carter / Queen Elizabeth
Jennifer Ehle / Myrtle Logue
Colin Firth / King George Vi
Michael Gambon / King George V
Derek Jacobi / Archbishop Cosmo Lang
Guy Pearce / King Edward Viii
Geoffrey Rush / Lionel Logue
Timothy Spall / Winston Churchill
The Social Network (Columbia Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg / Mark Zuckerberg
Andrew Garfield / Eduardo Saverin
Armie Hammer / Cameron And Tyler Winklevoss
Max Minghella / Divya Narendra
Josh Pence / Tyler Winklevoss
Justin Timberlake / Sean Parker
JOHN HAWKES in Supporting! melt Maybe, just maybe, he will get an Oscar nomination!
Two very important awards nominations came out today, the Producers Guild and the Writers Guild. The Writers Guild deemed a lot of Oscar-possible movies ineligible* so they’re not quite as important in predicting Oscar nominations.
2010-11 PRODUCERS GUILD nominations
The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures:
**[127 Hours](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1542344/combined)** - Producers: Danny Boyle, Christian Colson
**[Black Swan](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0947798/combined)** - Producers: Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver
**[Inception](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1375666/combined)** - Producers: Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
**[The Fighter](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0964517/combined)** - Producers: David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg
**[The Kids Are All Right](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0842926/combined)** - Producers: Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray
**[The King’s Speech](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1504320/combined)** - Producers: Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin
**[The Social Network](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1285016/combined)** - Producers: Dana Brunetti, Cean Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin
**[The Town](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0840361/)** - Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Graham King
**[Toy Story 3](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0435761/combined)** - Producer: Darla K. Anderson
**[True Grit](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1403865/)** - Producers: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:
**[Despicable Me](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1323594/)** - Producers: John Cohen, Janet Healy, Christopher Meledandri
**[How to Train Your Dragon](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0892769/)** - Producer: Bonnie Arnold
**[Toy Story 3](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0435761/combined)** - Producer: Darla K. Anderson
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures:
**[Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1638362/)** - Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination
**[Earth Made of Glass](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1515197/)** - Producers: Reid Carolin, Deborah Scranton
**[Inside Job](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1645089/)** - Producers: Charles Ferguson, Audrey Marrs
**[Smash His Camera](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1280015/)** - Producers: Linda Saffire, Adam Schlesinger
**[The Tillman Story](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1568334/)** - Producer: John Battsek
**[Waiting for 'Superman'](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1566648/)** - Producer: Lesley Chilcott
It’s great seeing The Tillman Story nominated. I hope it gets an Oscar nomination too. Sad to not see Winter’s Bone on the list, but I still wouldn’t be surprised to see it nominated for an Oscar. In place of what though, I don’t know. The Town, maybe? They’re all such good movies, I don’t want to see any kicked. Well, The Kids Are All Right, but that’s not going to happen. There are always surprises at the Oscars, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Winter’s Bone and one or two of the others didn’t make it, and something else totally out of left field did. Who saw The Blind Side coming last year? Not me. Maybe they nominated it because of its name and wanted to throw everyone for a loop.
2010-11 WRITERS GUILD nominations
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
Screenplay by Mark Heyman and Andres Heinz and John McLaughlin;
Story by Andres Heinz; Fox Searchlight
The Fighter
Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; Paramount Pictures
Inception
Written by Christopher Nolan; Warner Bros.
Please Give
Written by Nicole Holofcener; Sony Pictures Classics
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy;
Based on the book Between a Rock and a Hard Place by Aron Ralston; Fox Searchlight
I Love You Phillip Morris
Written by John Requa & Glenn Ficarra;
Based on the book by Steven McVicker; Roadside Attractions
The Social Network
Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin;
Based on the book The Accidental Billionaires by Ben Mezrich; Sony Pictures
The Town
Screenplay by Peter Craig and Ben Affleck & Aaron Stockard;
Based on the novel Prince of Thieves by Chuck Hogan; Warner Bros.
True Grit
Screenplay by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen;
Based on the novel by Charles Portis; Paramount Pictures
DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
Enemies of the People
Written, Directed, Filmed and Produced by Rob Lemkin and Thet Sambath; International Film Circuit
Freedom Riders
Written, Produced and Directed by Stanley Nelson; International Film Circuit
Gasland
Written and Directed by Josh Fox; HBO Documentary Films and International WOW Company
Inside Job
Produced, Written and Directed by Charles Ferguson; Co-written by Chad Beck, Adam Bolt; Sony Pictures Classics
The Two Escobars
Written by Michael Zimbalist, Jeff Zimbalist; ESPN Films
I burst out laughing in delight when I saw I Love You Phillip Morris on the Writers Guild list because it was one of my favorite films from 2010. It’s sadly not going to be nominated for much of anything else, so to see it get at least one important nomination was very gratifying. Please Give’s nomination was pretty cool too. I’ve only seen one of those documentary nominations, Inside Job.
Here are the Art Directors Guild nominations. You can’t tell anything from the nominees because they have 3 different categories, unlike the Oscars. It’s just a guide to tell you what they’re looking at. I’m one who loves these categories because people like the Art Directors, Editors, Cinematographers, Costumers, Hair and Makeup artists, Sound folks, they all deserve their moment in the sun for doing such great jobs. Even really crappy films serve a purpose, getting these people experience and resume filler. Everyone has to start somewhere.
Again, when it comes to the magic word “Guild” it’s best to perk up if you throw in on Oscar nomination pools, because while not all Guild members are AMPAS (the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which is why it’s called the “Academy Awards” and sorry to insult your intelligence if you already know all this) members, most AMPAS members are going to be a member of one or more Guilds in their field(s). Some people belong to multiples Guilds, like Writer/Directors, Actor/Directors, etc.
And AMPAS branches nominates their own. Meaning, the Actors branch of AMPAS choose the acting nominees. AMPAS Art Directors nominate Art Directors, Cinematographers nominate cinematographers, Editors nominate Editors, and so on. The only exceptions are that everyone nominates Best Picture, and special panels nominate in the Foreign-Language, Documentary and Shorts categories.
When it comes to actual voting, after the nominations are announced, everyone votes for everything, except you have to prove you’ve seen the Foreign-Language, Documentary and Shorts nominees before you can vote. I wish all categories were like that.
2010-11 Art Directors Guild nominees
Period Film
True Grit – Jess Gonchor
The King’s Speech – Eve Stewart
Shutter Island – Dante Ferretti
Robin Hood – Arthur Max
Get Low – Geoffrey Kirkland
Fantasy Film
Alice In Wonderland – Robert Stromberg
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1 – Stuart Craig
Inception – Guy Hendrix Dyas
Tron: Legacy – Darren Gilford
The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Voyage Of The Dawn Treader – Barry Robison
Contemporary Film
Black Swan – Therese DePrez
The Social Network – Donald Graham Burt
The Fighter – Judy Becker
The Town – Sharon Seymour
127 Hours – Suttirat Larlarb
The Scripter Award nominations don’t mean much in terms of Oscar nominations, they only nominated adaptations and there’s little if any crossover in the membership, but they’re always fun to see.
2010-11 USC Scripter nominations
127 Hours
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
The Visual Effects branch of AMPAS has narrowed down the list of possible nominees to 7.
I’ll guess that Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim get jettisoned for the final 5, but it’s nice to see them in the mix.
Actually, there are traditionally only 3 VFX nominees, so the question is, after Inception (my bet for the eventual winner), which other two will make the cut? I’m guessing probably TRON (although the original wasn’t a nominee in this category), but after that, it’s a toss-up.
Only one other HP film (Prisoner) has competed for VFX, and I haven’t seen this one yet so can’t judge. The first Iron Man was here, but that’s never a guarantee for the sequels. I think Alice was too garish in a lot of its effects–I think SPvTW had a better look to it–but a lot of it comes down to how the bake-off goes and how effective each competing reel is assembled.
Take with grain of salt, but a friend who still works at a Hollywood studio told me that the “buzz” on Social Network is slipping and that King’s Speech is starting to become the new front runner for Best Film Oscar in water cooler conversations.
I have yet to see Social Network, but will hopefully get to see it On Demand soon, but thought I would throw that out there.
You’re absolutely right, it’s usually 3. I was going by the article I quoted, which said “The final five will be announced on Jan. 25.” and I didn’t even think about it. So now I’m confused if it’s really 3 as usual, or 5 this year because they had so many entries. Doesn’t matter, we’ll find out soon enough.
I kinda feel bad for the Narnia people. It’s a big blow to the Clash of the Titans VFX crew too. Even if the movies weren’t great, they both had pretty great special effects. On the other hand, I’m loving that Scott Pilgrim is up for consideration. Inception too.
I wouldn’t be surprised if The King’s Speech won, and that’d be fine with me because I thought it was wonderful. It seems more Oscar-friendly and you know all the older members of the Academy are going to vote for it, but I would grin like a happy lunatic if The Social Network hung on and the younger members of the Academy were numerous enough to push it over the edge to win. I do think it’ll come down to those two films and they’ll be neck and neck right to the end. The list of nominees will consist of nothing but great movies, but those two specifically seem beloved.
This bump reminds me I need to post the Directors Guild nominees. Be back shortly.
Aronofsky, Russell & Hooper are first-time DGA nominees. Fincher was nominated once before for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (lost to Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire). Nolan was nominated twice before, for Memento (he lost to Ron Howard for A Beautiful Mind) and The Dark Knight (the same year Danny Boyle won for Slumdog Millionaire). I’m loving the Inception love from the Guilds.
I don’t really care who wins here, since Banksy (Exit Through The Gift Shop), Amir Bar-Lev (The Tillman Story) and Johnny O’Hara & Duane Baughman (Bhutto) weren’t nominated. I’ve seen Last Train Home, Inside Job and Superman, and liked them all, especially Inside Job. Client 9 opens here tomorrow and I’ll see it next week. Restrepo will probably win. Geez, I hate to whine, but man, in a year when I saw more documentaries than I have in my entire life totaled up, I would miss the one that will probably sweep everything. Damn.
7 films advance in the Oscar Makeup category. Like the Visual Effects, there will be a “Bake off” and 3 will be nominated for Oscars.
I figure Alice In Wonderland, The Wolfman, and possibly True Grit or maybe The Fighter. This is a category however where really terrible movies can get Oscar nominations just because the Makeup is considered great by the people who know exactly what was involved in the process. Remember, branch nominates branch, so the Makeup people nominate and no one else has any input into the nomination, and they really don’t give a flying crap what anyone else thinks. They’re not honoring the movie, they’re honoring the artists/craftspeople who worked on the movie. Which I can see, it makes perfect sense, but it does lead to things like “Oscar-nominated Norbit” which is fairly cringe-inducing. The 3rd nominee could very well be Jonah Hex instead of True Grit or The Fighter. I haven’t seen The Way Back or Barney’s Version (I have a free pass to that next week).
I’ve pretty much given up on awards shows, but an Oscar nomination here would make me happy. I’ll admit in my specific case it is slightly strained choice in that I’m not basing it solely on Hawkes performance in the film, even though it was certainly superb. But I’m actually basing it more on a contrast between that performance and his character in the TV show Deadwood. The transformation and range between the two is just so shockingly good I think he deserves an award for “best character actor based on compare and contrast range between two gigs.”
I feel the same way but for a different performance. The only other thing I’d seen him in, that I remembered*, is as the dorky weirdo in Me And You And Everyone We Know. He was slightly creepy in that, but it was a nerdy, dorky type of creepy, not menacing and frightening like he was as Teardrop.
What was his character like in Deadwood?
Though, looking at his IMDB page, I know I’ve seen other movies he’s done (Wristcutters: A Love Story, Miami Vice, The Perfect Storm, Miracle at St. Anna) but I didn’t and don’t remember him in them. If I watched the movies now, I’d recognize him immediately. He’s forever on my radar now. I hope he’ll be on the Academy’s radar too.
Highly moral, slightly nerdy ( by Old West standards ), thoughtful, usually smilingly good-natured, polite, patient, kind-hearted, Jewish ( this was a minor plot point at times ) shopkeeper. Like most of the Deadwood characters he was a fairly complex and nuanced creation. But 180 degrees from his character in Winter’s Bone, in which I honestly did not recognize him.
Thanks Tamerlane, he sounds like a wonderful character. I had no idea that Deadwood was based on real-life characters. I knew that it was considered a great show, but I never knew any details about it, other than that it was a western.
Here are some recent additions, the Editors Guild and the BFCA.
2010 AMERICAN CINEMA EDITORS (A.C.E) nominations (aka “The Eddies”)
* **[Alice in Wonderland](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1014759/)** - [Chris Lebenzon, A.C.E.](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0495605/)
* ****[Easy A](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1282140/)**** - [Susan Littenberg](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0514481/)
* **[The Kids Are All Right](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0842926/combined)** - [Jeffrey M. Werner](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0921418/)
* **[Made in Dagenham](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1371155/)** - [Michael Parker](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0662491/)
* **[Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0446029/)** - [Jonathan Amos](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1633672/) & [Paul Machliss](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0532651/)
BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:
* **[Despicable Me](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1323594/)** - [Gregory Perler](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0674179/) & [Pam Ziegenhagen](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0956063/)
* **[How To Train Your Dragon](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0892769/)** - [Maryann Brandon, A.C.E.](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0104783/) & [Darren T. Holmes, A.C.E.](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0391789/)
* **[Toy Story 3](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0435761/combined)**- [Ken Schretzmann](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0775350/) & [Lee Unkrich, A.C.E.](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0881279/)
BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY:
* **[Exit Through the Gift Shop](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1587707/)** - [Tom Fulford](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1723418/) & [Chris King](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1201554/)
* **[Inside Job](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1645089/)** - [Chad Beck](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1556822/) & [Adam Bolt](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm2903269/)
* **[Waiting For “Superman”](http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1566648/)** - [Jay Cassidy, A.C.E.](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0144203/), [Greg Finton](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0278368/) & [Kim Roberts](http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0731324/)
Editors are so important. Besides presenting us with a finished film, there are “truisms” about editing nominations/wins and Best Picture nominations/wins though I always forget what they are, I just know that editors are considered very important. ArchiveGuy?
Like a lot of other people elsewhere, I’m shocked to the core at the exclusion/neglect of 127 Hours. How do you make a movie about a guy stuck in a cave for 2 hours exciting and tense and exhilarating and moving? Well, writing, directing, acting and music are big components, but damn, the editing would seem to be right up there, very important. I would have thought that this is one place where the movie would be nominated. The editor Jon Harris had a great year. Besides 127 Hours he edited the beautifully kinetic Kick-Ass. In the past, he was also the editor on Snatch, Layer Cake, Starter for 10 and Stardust, among others. Give the man a hand, if the editing guild and AMPAS branch won’t.
Still and all, hooray for their singling out my buddy Exit Through The Gift Shop, the very funny and interesting and warm-hearted Made in Dagenham, and of course Scott Pilgrim, which should win here.
BFCA (Broadcast Film Critics Association) aka “Critics Choice Awards” Winners
They really spread the love around. Inception won 6, The Social Network won 4, The Fighter won 3, The King’s Speech won 2, as did Alice In Wonderland, which will probably win the same two at the Oscars. I’m so glad they chose that song from 127 Hours. As is obvious, the movie isn’t getting anywhere near enough awards attention to suit me, which I can live with as long as James Franco is nominated for Best Actor, and that song is nominated for Best Song at the Oscars.
Well, other than the fact that there’s 33 years difference in their ages, yeah, I can sorta see it. Stanton was born in 1926, and Hawkes in 1959. They could certainly play father and son.
[shallow]As much as I love Stanton, he always was and always will be on the uglier side of the spectrum (looks only, he’s a wonderful man) which is perfect for the roles he plays, whereas Hawkes is kinda hot to me, now that he’s on my radar.[/shallow]
Other nominees: 127 Hours - Producers: Danny Boyle, Christian Colson Black Swan - Producers: Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver Inception - Producers: Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas The Fighter - Producers: David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg The Kids Are All Right - Producers: Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray The Social Network - Producers: Dana Brunetti, Cean Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin The Town - Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Graham King Toy Story 3 - Producer: Darla K. Anderson True Grit - Producers: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:
They’re not a great indicator of Best Picture winners though. Sure, a lot of PG winners have gone on to win the Oscar, but movies like Moulin Rouge!, Little Miss Sunshine, The Aviator, Saving Private Ryan and Brokeback Mountain have all won the Producers Guild without winning the Best Picture Oscar.
Regarding the Producers Guild selecting The King’s Speech as Best Film, the Hollywood Reporter is hintingthis might be an indication of an upset at the Oscars.
Looks like my friend at the studio might have been standing next to the right water cooler when he told me the buzz is switching gears.
A shocker at the DGA last night cements The King’s Speech as the one to beat.
I think you’re absolutely right. All throughout this thread I’ve been so sure that The Social Network would win but now I think it will lose to The King’s Speech. That’s fine with me because I think it’s fantastic and well-deserving. TSN will join a very long and distinguished list of great films that didn’t win Best Picture.