I have clear thoughts on how I view the team that knocks mine out of the playoffs.
First and foremost, there’s no shame in losing to the champ. Nobody else could beat them either. So as a general rule I’m happiest when the team that knocks mine out wins it all, even though I’m probably not rooting for them.
Second, I do kind of take perverse delight out of worst case losers in the playoffs: You lose in the wildcard to somebody who loses in the divisional round to somebody who loses in the conference championship to the Superbowl loser.
It doesn’t happen every year but this year the Steelers have a chance: Steelers lost to the Ravens who lost to the Bills who lost to the Chiefs. If the Chiefs lose to the Eagles, the Steelers are the perfect playoff losers.
My understanding is that sports books aren’t trying to predict who’s going to win the game with their spreads, at least not directly. Spreads are set so that they get a roughly even proportion of wagers on both teams. When spreads get adjusted during the lead-up to the game, it’s because wagers are moving more towards one team or the other.
Cook on the Bills destroyed the Chiefs’ defense. Saquon will do more damage. Jalen Hurts, the same for at least one TD. Jalen Carter will sack and pressure. Slay, Mitchell and CGJG will defend well. 28-21 E A G L E S, EAGLES!
I was rooting for the Bills, of course, because everyone is sick of the Chiefs, but the fact is they plain choked again. They had the ball with ~4 minutes, down 2, 4th quarter. That’s the dream set-up. Destiny in their hands. If you had asked Josh Allen or anyone on the Bills, they’d take that situation and be fully confident they could drive for the TD and win. But no, they couldn’t even get past mid-field.
The Bills under Sean McDermott are shaping up to be the opposite of the Chiefs, who somehow find some magic way to win just about every time.
They could also make it one of those disqualifying unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, where if you get 2 you’re automatically ejected. Even better, make it an Under Siege penalty and eject the offender and the player next to him.
Nitpick: Bills got the ball with 3:33 left, down 32-29.
Otherwise, your point is well taken. They got the ball at the 30, needing no more than 35 yards for a tying field goal (Bass had converted a 53-yarder earlier). In 2 plays, they had 13 of those yards. But in the next 4 plays, they got 5 yards.
For more context, this was a stat from the AP on Chiefs/Mahomes in the playoffs:
Since start of 2019 postseason, the Chiefs have had 11 playoff drives in 4th quarter or OT when down by a score. Here’s how they did: 7 TDs and 4 game-tying FGs
That is absurd production in “must have” late-game situations. I get hating on the Chiefs, but their ability call the right plays and then execute those plays when everything is on the line is astounding.
That said, Allen almost pulled out the miracle on the 4th-down play. Kincaid just couldn’t come up with the circus catch.
ETA: And in the two non-SB games they lost, one was lost to Brady’s Pats in OT where the Chiefs never got the ball, and the second was in OT to the Bengals when a deep pass bounced off of Tyreek Hill’s hands (well defended) and fell right to another defender.
That’s an amazing stat, @Jas09 . In the postgame shows at least 2x different people on different shows related Mahomes to Michael Jordan and being at his absolute best when needing to win. That comparison resonates with me. And with Spags they have among the best defensive strategies in NFL history. The Chiefs are a force to be reckoned with.
Part of the announcement when they threatened to award a score, is that if that player committed the same foul a third time in a row, it would be considered unsportsmanlike conduct.
He didn’t repeat it after that (and the Eagles scored).
About Tomlin on the sideline, my WAG is that the officials felt that something far more blatant was needed to award the Ravens a TD for palpably-unfair act. “Palpably unfair” should be something so rare that it’s only seen once a century or something like that - like someone stepping off the bench to tackle a player on the field.
As I said upthread, I think it should be several points in the other direction. Across many sports and for as long as professional leagues have existed (amateur too) the kind of insane luck that KC has benefited from this year is ALWAYS followed by a fall, meaning that said clutch “skill” is not repeatable and thus generally illusory. I’ve known this since I started reading Bill James and his baseball Abstracts in the 80’s, and it has held just as strongly in football as it does in hardball.
The only thing which potentially makes this a competitive game is that you never know when the luck finally runs out and Cinderella’s carriage returns to being a pumpkin; it could happen in 2 weeks, or something next year, or even after that. Pretty much any of their main stats indicates this is a .500 team, and not a 15-2 one; annnnd if someone points to Mahomes as their secret weapon, welp as the link indicates the Chiefs had a -0.2 yards per pass deficit, with about the same number of interceptions.
Meanhoo Philly’s stats look highly impressive: a +0.6 per carry edge on the ground (thanks to the best back in the league natch), and an even bigger +1.4 per pass edge.
I’m not a gambling man, but if I were I would be all in on the Eagles at that spread. Skill eventually defeats mythology.
They are soooo clutch.