The Supreme Court has kicked off Civil War 2.0

(Imagine profuse cursing here reflecting monumental frustration with the current political order. There, that feels better!)

The US is coming apart. There are too many parts that don’t work at this point, too much with which the population is dissatisfied, for things to remain the same. The system simply needs to be torn down and rebuilt from scratch. The country is now divided between sane Liberals and moderates and nutjob Trumpers/QAnoners, and we’re all at each other throats. Our Constitution is out of date and has always made significant political change difficult. Now, with the current level of polarization, it’s impossible. The existence of the Senate and the Electoral College give the minority outsized power. The Supreme Court has been stacked by the radical minority.

To quote the late great Jim Steinman, “We’re living in a powder keg and giving off sparks.”

But wait. The Supreme Court just went ahead and threw a stick of lit dynamite in the mofo. The overturning of Roe v. Wade and the “bonus” decision about guns are going to blow this country apart. And I don’t think it’s even going to take that long.

In January of this year (2022), The Guardian published this: The next US civil war is already here – we just refuse to see it. I agree that we have been in a cold Civil War for some time now. But now it’s gonna get hot.

Not hot, however, with guns and bullets–though they may play a role. Hot in that we’re going to have powerful entities and institutions beginning simply to defy the political order.

Here’s stuff that I think could happen (in some cases, already happening):

  • The blue and red states are going to go to war over abortion. This is already happening. Blue states are planning on flying people in from red states and just straight up paying for their abortions. Doctors/women subject to legal consequences in red states are, I speculate, going to be given sanctuary in blue states. Meanwhile, red states are trying to control women by coming up with laws that don’t let people leave to get an abortion. This is going to be a monumental fucking mess, and here is where I can see a states, either red or blue, beginning to defy the federal government as it tries to sort things out.

  • Once that defiance begins, it will spread like wildfire. I can imagine states refusing to give up undocumented immigrants (this is already happening with “sanctuary cities.” I can see blue cities in red states defying state government power. I can see blue states starting to regulate guns in defiance of the 2nd Amendment.

  • Parts of states more red or blue than the whole are going to want to secede. I can see blue cities in red states wanting to form their own Blue Exclave Superstate. Meanwhile, as the Texas moron Republicans recently indicated, states or populations therein are going to want to secede from the union.

  • Extreme defiance by an entity will cause a standoff, eventually one involving raw police and military power. My guess, however, is that, if it is perceived that an actual war is about to begin, then the side attempting to subjugate the defiant party (probably the federal government against a state) will back down. I.e., Russia will not invade Ukraine. Once that happens, the Berlin wall is down, and we will have a political free-for-all. Lacking respect, legitimacy, and power, the Union will have collapsed.

  • Meanwhile, corporations will exert a lot of power and influence. Look at how US corporations have dealt with Russia. I find it amusing that people like those who want to form a new Confederacy think that corporations will be neutral on the matter. Of course not–most will choose to leave the Red Pariah and focus on Blue Sanity, if only out of their own self-interest. Those that try to appease both sides will lose Side Blue. Those that explicitly choose Side Red will be expurgated (which is why I think Elon Musk will end up destroying Tesla).

  • I think the new political order will be something akin to the Holy Roman Empire (it pretty much is now, but it will be explicit then). I think that, when things shake out, we will have some shell analogous to the federal government (especially since the military is not an easily divisible entity) and many, many political entities that are more or less free to rule as they please. Some will be big and powerful, as Prussia was, and some will simply be “free cities.”

  • I think a New Confederacy will form, but it will be forced to accept the existence of Liberal free cities in it, which may themselves form a kind of state or union (as I speculated above).

  • I have no doubt that some areas bordering Canada will want to join it, and they will be accepted. Hell, I could imagine half the country doing that (though Canada will not want to be taken over by the US, even the Liberal side of the US).

I thought Trump winning in 2020 would start the above scenario immediately. If he somehow wins in 2024, um, yeah, this country will implode within weeks. But I don’t actually think we’re going to make it to 2024 intact. The midterms, regardless of the result, will probably accelerate implosion.

There’s no way–no way–the US can make it another five years in its current form. We might as well get used to this fact now. Thoughts?

Sounds like a wiz setup for a shadowrun, omae. Mind if I play Decker?

Thanks for the irrelevance.

You say “irrelevance”, I say “Dark Angel fanfic”.

(My bolding)

Solve your own problems at home, please.

It’s not taken from an RPG or tv show so much as directly from Snow Crash.

They’re legitimately concerned about the future, and you’re mocking them.

I think they’re probably catastrophizing, but I don’t generally see any reason we won’t get the same response in kind. I definitely see people in blue states fighting their hardest to help red staters get abortions. There will be a lot of open defiance in this, including sending out that abortion pill, daring the red states to stop them when they can’t handle the drugs in their own state. I could also see some large cities being openly defiant.

I think it will take more time than the OP says and I don’t see the US breaking down completely over it. The fact is, 70% of the US supports abortion rights, and I don’t see that number decreasing. More likely we will see a huge blue push over this, which could wind up actually mattering at midterms. If so, then this gets handled at the legislative level. If not, then we see the left do what the right did, but faster.

I reported the thread hijacking. In any case, I guess you guys haven’t been reading much lately, as there are all kinds of serious articles in serious publications talking about this. I cited one in the OP, ffs.

Right, and the question is how does this escalate, and how quickly? A lot happened very quickly after the Berlin Wall came down. I think we will be in a similar situation.

If sanity wins in November, I think it will be a squeaker. I think there are just too many MAGAs right now combined with dumb, benighted voters who think there will always be Democrats and Republicans, and there will always be America; and, therefore, if you vote one party in or out, it just doesn’t matter all that much.

The Constitution and our system of government have survived many upheavals, seething political enmities, a genuine Civil War, two World Wars and numerous smaller conflicts without opposing sides forcing an irrevocable breakup.

The idea that things are magically different now and the U.S. won’t survive the next five years is silly, no matter how many hysterical op-eds are written.

Time to cool off the rhetoric and get back to work.

What is not clear is what side the Federal gov’t (and military) is on in the civil war. Or are you asserting it will be neutral/ineffective?

Are you saying you would not want states in the US to join Canada or that such a notion is impossible.

Also, since Canada is a vassal state of the US, our problems are your problems. (I have also heard that there are many, many Canadians more interested in US politics than their own. My friend cites his Trumper Canadian f-i-l as such a person.)

It didn’t “survive” the Civil War; the Civil War happened to bring it back to life.

Isn’t it the magical thinking to think that the current political order survives no matter what, simply because it’s the US?

“Past performance” and all that…

Some on the left seem to want to join the loonies on the right who feast on the idea of imminent breakup/destruction of the U.S.

Sample headlines from Natural News, a popular purveyor of doom, ultra right-wing craziness and survivalist supplies:

“HOW AMERICA ENDS: Putin announces new BRICS global reserve currency project to REPLACE the petrodollar”

“Demolition of supply chains is pre-civil war SABOTAGE to shape the battlefield for domestic WARFARE against We the People”

You want to sound like those nutbags, be my guest.

It is unclear, and that’s a big part of the mess to follow, but imagine if a red state openly defies a Biden executive order, or a blue state openly defies a Trump order. Let’s say that the feds then try to arrest the governor of the defiant state or something like that, but the local police or some such force are ready to fight back, or the state actually raises a local army of volunteers. My guess is that the feds and/or military do not go in and put down the rebellion.

If they don’t, that has big consequences. But if they do, that doesn’t really change the scenario, as even more defiance will follow, and then an even bigger response is required.

I can pretty easily imagine a Trump or DeSantis wanting to crush the Blue rebels but not getting the obedience required to do it.

Nice. Well, I’m not citing conspiracy theories. I’m not saying any one thing is definitely going to happen that will have this one particular effect. I’m looking at the forces at play and saying that the current system is not going to hold together much longer and imagining what could happen. I don’t see how that’s nutty.

I think you’re being naive and true-believery in the current system.

Executive orders are directed to the federal government.

What executive order are you envisaging that is directed to a state government?

IMO, it comes down to the size and “power” of the “apathetics” - compared to the crazies - mostly right, but also left. A lot of things like abortion rights and open carry can swing back and forth, and my comfortable life isn’t DIRECTLY impacted. What is most affected are my values and beliefs. But so long as there is food on the table, I’m warm in the winter and cool in the summer, and the TV gets power - I doubt I’ll be heading to the streets with my pitchfork. The federal government seems largely impotent. Demographics within each state will determine how read/blue/purple it is. Come on up to Illinois - the weather’s blue!

They of course have consequences in states and can be defied. E.g.:

South Dakota Republican drafts bill to nullify Biden’s executive orders

Just curious, who’d you vote for in the last two Presidential elections @Aeschines?