Sage: Teenagers are stupid.
GIGO: Civil libertarians are only in Arizona.
I agree, civil libertarians are, probably, an insignificant factor. …Why are we talking about them? I’m pretty sure that they weren’t mentioned by me and that I was pretty specific about who I was talking about.
As of yet, I have only seen any indications that lockdown is better than no lockdown. I came to the same result with some simple math, here, several months ago:
I have not changed my view - and that’s largely because the math hasn’t changed.
As for a model that covers option B, as opposed to the differences between the Control case and option A, depending on the numbers, I can get between double or half the fatality count versus option A:
With the current set of numbers, we have:
Control
- Sick (ever): 282k
- Immune (ever): 84k
- Deaths: 11k
Quarantine-light
- Sick (ever): 29k
- Immune (ever): 2k
- Deaths: 930
Risk-targeting
- Sick (ever): 183k
- Immune (ever): 64k
- Deaths: 926
Actual results will vary by run and how strict you are with Grandma.
What isn’t included are things like how much sunlight Grandma is getting nor how the economy is doing.