The Trump Administration: A Clusterfuck in the Making

The Dow is heading in the proper direction to break 25,000 again! Trump reportedly “Jubilant!”

The fix is easy; Simply name it Barack Hussein Obama Senior Avenue

More on that Pennsylvania speech:

His eyesight is failing! That’s it! He has trouble reading the teleprompter! He’s too vain to wear glasses or admit his eyesight is bad. He has trouble reading prompter and tries to cover by …whatever the hell that was!

It’s a good idea to the farmers that grow wheat!

And yet more comments on the speech:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/politics/donald-trump-pennsylvania-speech-energy/index.html

No, can’t do that. “Tubman” in honor of Harriet Tubman AND the AHFS.

So, the Law and Order president is blatantly violating the Hatch act, and it doesn’t matter because… there is too much stupid shit to keep track of? Rednecks love it? There is no law anymore?

I am going to scratch a hole in my head trying to figure out how the racist crackdown on immigrants is worth all of this to some people.

Down a neat 800 points today.

Lol, just got two notifications on my phone, both of them mentioning “recession”.

Sure, pretty soon we’ll all be wearing pickle barrels and suspenders and fighting with alley cats over fish skeletons, but at least José and María won’t be stealing those plum poultry processing plant jobs that Americans are clamoring for.

I’ll probably get some push-back for this but I’m not sure how responsible Donald Trump would be for any upcoming recession. After all, we’ve had a pretty strong 9-year run, much of which took place while Eurozone economies have been confronted with a choice between default or harsh austerity (not to mention Brexit). So if Trump’s defenders wanted to point out that all good things come to an end, I’d find it hard to completely disagree. I’m sure he’s responsible in some instances, particularly where trade is concerned, but economic expansions eventually run out of steam.

What matters more than the recession itself is how a presidential administration responds to it, and that is what will define how we view Trump’s economy. And like you, that’s what worries me. Hoover didn’t cause the initial wave of bank failures and speculative investing that led to an economic crisis in 1928-29, but his policies of taxation without spending and prolonged trade wars pretty much guaranteed we ended up with the Great Depression. For as much shit as I’ve talked about George W Bush, he at least had people who learned those lessons and learned from the failures of a Republican predecessor. Take a look at the fucking circus we have now: I don’t think we have people in place who even remotely know what they’re doing. Trump’s handling of the Fed pretty much tells you all you need to know there, in addition to fighting international trade wars on multiple fronts without any indication as to what his objectives are.

The recession is one thing; the response is what will sink us, and I think we’re probably in for a very rough ride once we get further away from shore.

I’m wondering if I should cash out my 401ks. (Not withdraw the balances; just convert them to cash.)

Almost back to levels seen in 2017! MAGA!

I go back and forth on how seriously to take you. This is a back moment for you, just FYI.

I mean, I seriously am going to have a hard time listening to you again. Did you just say this?

Sure, there’s room for debate on just how much responsibility a president has for the economy during his time in office. Trump, however, has been more than happy to pat himself on the back and claim credit for the good economy during his term so far. It seems only fair that if the economy tanks that Trump gets the blame, too.

I’ll partially agree with you on this. Mainly because Trump thinks he’s running a business and we are his employees. Not the other way around, which is reality. His tariff war is “how much money am I making?”

I did this months ago- moved about 75% of my 401k out of stocks and into a mix of cash and bondy things. After the crash I will move it back —> profit!

I was pretty sure that this would be Bolton when I clicked the headline:

Trump Advisor warns China over Hong Kong Crackdown

I wouldn’t say that we’re up to a 50% chance yet, but I would say that we’re probably moving towards Bolton getting the boot. Trump don’t care about Venezuela - he’s happy to let Bolton do whatever he wants, even if it means being the World Police - but he does care about China and the trade war, and Bolton isn’t the sort to give a damn what Trump tells him to do.

  1. China tells Trump “no deal” if he or any of his people say anything about Hong Kong
  2. Trump tells Bolton to stop
  3. Bolton ignores him
  4. Bolton fired

Actually, maybe it is better than 50% chance. Trump already backed down on Taiwan, back during the election.

Not only this (the fact that Trump’s been claiming credit, so he gets the blame, too), but the fact that Trump has actually taken a crowbar to the economy.

His meddling with trade–and the results, which also include increasing the dreaded ‘business uncertainty’ to an exponential extent–amounts to far more responsibility for the current situation than is true for most presidents. Most of them refrain from mucking about to the degree that Trump has done.

One is tempted to believe that Trump (and/or his disreputable advisors, such as Peter Navarro) are acting on explicit instructions from the Kremlin, on not only trade issues but the tax screw-up and Trump’s pressuring of the Fed on interest rates. But Trump’s ego and stupidity are probably enough explanation for it all.

Naw, it goes way further than this, guys. So much of economic growth depends upon many of the players understanding the rules and being confident enough to form agreements based upon those same rules.

Trump has destroyed rule after agreement after accord after treaty after norm after relationship (repeat x!y times) so often that the economic world which existed from 1948-2016 is in shambles (and I think people are beginning to wake up to this fact). And it’s not just “oh, we can elect a Dem and things will go back to normal”, no… omg, not at all. Why should they trust America not to elect another Trump? Why… now given the opportunity to move past the Pax Americana… would SE Asia, Europe, even Africa want to go back to those days? And you can’t just say “oops on that destroyed trade agreement. Quid pro ante?” because not a single country will accept that.

And then there’s the manner of how Trump has made his changes:

Bush 2 and Reagan (and, to a lesser extent, Clinton) created distortions in the market which occurred via policy implementations under a known democratic process - unfortunate, but it happens. The only thing which has occurred in this manner in the Trump administration is the 2017 tax cut for millionaires - everything else has been Executive Ordered, those orders can be reversed at a whim, and Congress is powerless to stop him. And since there is no plan behind his actions, not a single person on this planet knows what the end game it going to be… or even when it will be, for Trump may get reelected.

Trump owns the upcoming recession even more than Dubya deserved the blame for 2008 as a lot of the systemic damage was done during the Clinton years (smoot-hawley repeal, derivatives removed from federal oversight, more).

But this? This is Donald Trump. And there is no doubt about it