PANDUMBIC 2: The Dumpire Strikes Back (The Sequel) (1:27 video)
I assume that you’re asking what the odds are of excluding a particular set of 3 European countries?
The odds are pretty good:
The Schengen is a real thing and Trump hasn’t added not subtracted from it.
Given that they did specifically use the Schengen as their meter, the argument would presumably be that - due to there being no border checks while moving around through the region - it’s impossible to say who has been where and where they came from.
Of course, it’s still an arbitrary line if you’re basing things on preventing disease transmission. It’s like saying that you’re not going to sleep with the town drunk, because who knows who she’s been with, but you will sleep with the lady who was just on TV talking about her difficulties with her untreated syphilis. All while, yourself, having a severe case of gonorrhea that you’re hiding from your wife.
Given that is an arbitrary line, and there are lots of different partnerships in Europe and the world to select from, it wouldn’t have been too difficult to select a rule that kept business going.
Now I know back in January I thought we were going to war with Iran and I asked how much nuclear winter it would take to fix global warming. And of course we didn’t go to war and missed our opportunity to solve global warming. But hear me out. What if we let coronavirus kill 7% or so of the population of earth. How much will the resulting dip in energy demand affect global temperatures? This could still work itself out.
Loser Donald strikes me as the kind of pansy who faints at the sight of his own blood.
Satellite imagery shows that the heavy air pollution over China has dissipated since the virus struck.
Seriously? I was just indulging in gallows humor. I didn’t think there would be any noticeable effect. I guess the dip in pollution is due to people staying home instead of driving? I mean they haven’t had that many deaths yet have they?
Definitely at the sight of a needle that’s about to poke a hole in him.
As I understand it, the dip is from shutting down a ton of factories. I suspect electricity demand is down also, which helps in reducing the use of their coal-fired plants.
Also seen on Facebook (paraphrased by me):
- Hillary and George Soros had this virus created in a secret lab in the Amazon.
- Then had it transported and released in Wuhan, China.
- In collusion with their agents in the FAKE NEWS! and with the purpose of inducing global panic and hysteria, they have created a hoax that artificially caused the global markets to tank.
- All done with the goal to bring down Donald Trump.
To be honest, it’s hard to tell if this is a real MAGAss conspiracy theory or a parody of one.
The parody is less ridiculous.
I just saw the FB post today, but apparently, versions of this have been out there and Bill Gates is also involved:
California GOP candidate tweets coronavirus conspiracy theories
I admit I wasn’t familiar with Andy Slavitt before just a few minutes ago. He was for a time the head of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) under Obama and was tasked with fixing the issues with the healthcare.gov rollout. I guess he knows what he’s talking about.
He says in a tweet tonight that “Currently experts expect over 1 million deaths in the U.S.”
He doesn’t give a timeframe. One million deaths this year? By May 1? I’m not sure. In any case, if he’s correct, HOLY FUCKING SHIT. For context, all wars the US has fought between 1776 and today have claimed about 1.2 million American lives (cite, PDF).
That is nonsense. You can come up with those numbers using the worst case scenario at every single stage. 70% infection rate, 3.8% fatality rate, etc.
Nonsense.
Technically I think this would be strawmanning (claiming you hold a position that you don’t). Gaslighting would be when they claim that Trump never said that there would be no more than 13 people in the US infected and it was just your imagination that he said such a thing.
Or, it could be when one holds a lit match next to Trump’s mouth as he’s speaking. Some people have been known to juvenilely do this at the other end of their GI tract.
1 million deaths in the US would be a 70% infection rate with about a 0.4% mortality rate. 3.8 would put you closer to 10 million.
That is based on comments from a Harvard epidemiologist who predicts between 70 million and 150 million Americans will ultimately catch it and that 1% will die. Not clear on the timeframe and the death rate may be inaccurate, but Merkel predicts 2/3 of Germans will catch it, so he is calling a lower percentage of infected than she is.
The ranges of numbers I have seen go from 40-70% infection rate and 0.6% to 4.2% fatality rate. I don’t have a gauge on the infection rate yet but 0.6%-1% currently seems more likely than higher numbers.
55% infection rate at 0.8% fatality, for 300m Americans would be 1.3m.
An average year looks to have about 2.8m deaths (car accidents, heart attack, misadventure, etc.) Heart disease is our greatest killer at 23%, which would be 644k deaths. So a 1.3m loss is horrifying, for lack of a better word.
Granted, we will expect to see a lot fewer cases of heart disease and other illness-caused death this year. Since Covid-19 will be taking people out prematurely, we would expect the next few years after this one to have a lower death rate. On the other hand, since we know that many who would have died for other reasons this year will die due to Corona instead, our total number should be less than 4.1m.
I’d probably guess that we’ll see reduced death rates for the next two years, implying that 2/3rds of the 1.3m would have died naturally in the following two years and will die this year instead. (Fuzzy math.) So we should add 2/3rds of the 1.3m (867k) to the usual total (2.8m) for 3.7m deaths this year.
Well those projected (fantasized) death rates will certainly reduce Social Security and Medicare outlays - a positive and in line with the President’s thinking (hunching?)
/s
While I appreciate the effort you’ve put into this post and its points supported by such examples as the micromeasuring of apples, quite a lot of pie-in-the-sky speculation and the phrase “Leader in Chief of Curing Cancer for All Humanity, Gratis”, I stand by my previous post on the subject and am content to let other readers decide for themselves which of us is accurately reflecting the situation and which is engaged in desperate deflection.