The United States Declares Economic War on Canada

[Northern_Piper]

Statistics are in. Canada’s trade to the US has dropped precipitously.

OTTAWA — Canada posted its largest merchandise trade deficit on record in April at $7.1 billion as exports fell sharply in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Statistics Canada said Thursday the result, which followed a deficit of $2.3 billion in March, came as a plunge in exports to the U.S. more than offset a gain in shipments to other destinations around the world.

Katherine Judge, executive director and senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, called the numbers “really bad.”

“Essentially trade has totally collapsed.”

Trade deficit hits record in April as 'trade has totally collapsed' amid tariffs

And in other news, a quarter of the Canadian population views the United States as an enemy country:

Almost a third of respondents said they view the U.S. as a “neutral country,” while 27 per cent said they consider it an “ally” and 26 per cent see it as an “enemy country.”

Just over a third of men said they consider the U.S. an ally, compared with one in five women. Almost 30 per cent of women said they view the U.S. as an enemy, compared with 22 per cent of men.

Older Canadians, those at least 55 years of age, were more likely to consider the U.S. an enemy than younger Canadians. Regionally Albertans were most likely to consider the U.S. an ally while Ontarians and British Columbians were most likely to see it as an enemy.

The difference is starkest between political party supporters, with 44 per cent of Conservative supporters saying they view the U.S. as an ally, compared with 17 per cent of Liberal supporters and 12 per cent of NDP supporters said the same.

Canadians divided on whether U.S. is an 'ally' or 'enemy' country: Poll

[Northern_Piper]

And another poll in the Toronto Star shows similar results:

‘Elbows up’: Canadian public opinion of the U.S. hits a new low after Donald...

It’s really the worst collective opinions of the U.S. that we have recorded” in the more than 40 years the institute has been keeping track, said Keith Neuman, a senior associate at the Environics Institute for Survey Research. “By more than a two-to-one margin, Canadians’ opinions are negative rather than positive.”
…
“The unfavourable feelings are much stronger this time, and much more intense,” said Adam Chapnick, a Canadian foreign policy analyst and professor of defence studies at the Royal Military College of Canada.
…
The survey, conducted in mid-May, found 65 per cent of respondents held an “unfavourable” opinion of the U.S., while just 29 per cent had a “favourable” opinion.

That’s a dramatic shift from last fall, when public sentiment toward the U.S. was divided roughly 50-50.

(May be paywalled; has a monthly limit on free reads.)

[PhillyGuy]

Headlines tonight read like this:

Trump boosts tariffs on Canada to 35%, carrying through on his threat

In a statement issued Thursday evening, the White House said the new tariff rate, set at 25 per cent since March, will rise effective Friday.

“Canada has failed to co-operate in curbing the ongoing flood of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, and it has retaliated against the United States for the president’s actions to address this unusual and extraordinary threat,” says the statement.

So is the Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) era over?

No.

Reading down further in my link, it turns out that once North American content paperwork requirements are met, few Canadian exports, to the U.S., will actually be tariffed:

However, Canadian goods that meet the terms of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement will not be subject to the tariff, which means the vast bulk of Canada’s exports can still cross the border tariff-free.

More on how that works is in this CBC article:

Trade policy experts say the vast majority of Canadian exports can qualify for this exemption, and that’s leading to a stampede of companies rushing to do the paperwork to get their products deemed compliant.

Trump is playing with fire on tariffs. No one really know what the point is where there will be overwhelming economic damage to the U.S. (and partners), and we may be close. So TACO is an exaggeration. However, TACO is true in the sense that Trump makes himself look bolder than he is in real life.

[Johnny_L.A]

@PhillyGuy

Trump boosts tariffs on Canada to 35%, carrying through on his threat

I guess we’ll have to make another day trip to BC to help their economy in a small way.

[Dr.Drake]

Thanks. And I’m sorry, but we’re refraining from cross-border shopping until this tariff nonsense is sorted.

[Johnny_L.A]

@Dr.Drake

And I’m sorry, but we’re refraining from cross-border shopping until this tariff nonsense is sorted.

It’s the least we can do. I mean, $100 or $200 isn’t much; but we want you to know that you’re our friends and neighbours. ‘Children of a Common Mother’ and ‘Brethren Dwelling Together in Unity’ as it says on the Peace Arch. The rubber duck in my Jeep has a maple leaf on it.

So far, we’ve been to White Rock and Surrey. Years ago, we went to the aquarium in Vancouver (and found out my maps on the iPhone didn’t work north of the border). We need some more ideas.

And I don’t blame you for not coming down here. I wouldn’t, were I a Canadian. I just read that a bi-partisan committee nixed Trump’s plan (by a 26-to-3 vote) to cut funding to the National Institute of Health by 40%, and advanced a bill to increase funding by $100 million. It gives me some hope that even Republicans are smelling blood in the water.

[PhillyGuy]

@Johnny_L.A

@PhillyGuy

Trump boosts tariffs on Canada to 35%, carrying through on his threat

I guess we’ll have to make another day trip to BC to help their economy in a small way.

I’ve wondered before how this will really work if we are helping out in more than a tiny way. From the Financial Post:

The administration is maintaining exemptions allowing U.S. travelers to bring back as much as US$200 in personal items . . .

In theory, you should be able to bring back to the U.S. far more than $200 of goods, because of most items being tariff-free under the USMCA trade agreement that Trump is supposedly still following. But, in practice, if you have a few supermarket and clothing store receipts, it will be impossible to prove which items are USMCA-compliant. Maybe U.S. customs will let us hand in a signed form saying our stuff is under US$200. Will they then pick out cars at random to search for contraband coffee and orange juice?

[PhillyGuy]

@Dr.Drake

Thanks. And I’m sorry, but we’re refraining from cross-border shopping until this tariff nonsense is sorted.

I wouldn’t let Trump stop me. Then, my wife and I don’t buy all that much to bring back when on vacation.

Maybe if we do go to Canada this fall, we should use our $200 tariff-free allowance on toys.

[Dr.Drake]

@PhillyGuy

I wouldn’t let Trump stop me.

It’s collective action. We are demonstrating to ourselves, to our political leaders, to the non-USAians in the world, to our former and probably future friends in the USA, to the governing Republicans, and to Trump (in that order, I think) that we won’t be bullied.

I’m American AND Canadian, so in practical terms mine is somewhat of a partial boycott. But even so, the collective action is putting pressure on, and with luck that’s getting communicated upward. It’s certainly more effective than anything I’m doing as an American, because my representatives seem content to wait him out and certainly don’t care whether one of their constituents goes on a protest abroad.

[DWMarch]

@PhillyGuy

“Canada has failed to co-operate in curbing the ongoing flood of fentanyl and other illicit drugs, and it has retaliated against the United States for the president’s actions to address this unusual and extraordinary threat,” says the statement.

You know, we just can’t win sometimes. Since it seems like the only way to get Americans to stop doing drugs is to take the drugs away, a patriotic Canadian was doing his duty and look what happened to him:

67 kilograms of cocaine seized in Coutts border, Edmonton man charged

[Horatius]

@PhillyGuy

But, in practice, if you have a few supermarket and clothing store receipts

Rookie mistake. Ditch the receipts right away, price tags and bags too. If you’re buying stuff like clothes, wear as much of it while in Canada as you can, get some dirt on it.

This is why I said months ago that all Canadian border towns should offer US visitors lessons in how to smuggle.

[Heracles]

OK, so here’s my impression of the current strategy to annex Canada:

• Make public statements saying the Canadians are incapable of handling themselves. They can’t put out their forest fires, they can’t stop the (nonexistent) fentanyl trade into the U.S., they can’t stop migrants from crossing the border (leave it ambiguous as to which way the migrants are moving).
• Promote greater integration between the enforcement authorities on both sides of the border.
• Eventually involve Trump’s Praetorian, uh, National Guard, which will have been embedded into everything anyway.
• Take temporary control of institutions while claiming to help those poor overwhelmed Canadians.

[Horatius]

@Heracles

Promote greater integration between the enforcement authorities on both sides of the border

That’s the part that won’t work. No way do we allow armed US military anywhere near our cities. Not in the current environment.

NORAD involved a lot of cooperation, with US forces having access to Canada, but the vast majority of that was the Air Force.