You lost the bet already.
Should have jumped on it!
If an assassination attempt was actually a “win election” button, I’d think Trump would’ve tried it in 2020…
The betting markets implausibly overreact to news. I do not see there being a big block of undecided voters who are sitting there waiting for an event that would decide them between Trump and Biden.
If Trump gets a bounce, it could be that angry Trump supporters, who normally would hang up on a pollster, AKA Shy Trumpers, will want to participate in order to have their preference recorded.
This isn’t to say that Biden has much of a chance of winning against Trump. I just do not think the probability much changed.
There is no planet where Trump agrees to let someone shoot at him so he can get a boost in the polls.
Not talking about this. In 2016, he could’ve arranged someone attacking with a knife or something, screaming, “Antifa rules!” Again, if an assassination attempt was a “win election” button.
What I read was
Former President Donald Trump says he “felt the bullet ripping through [his] skin” …
“I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear"…
“I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin"…
As you may be able to see on preview, there’s a close-up photo. Earlobe seems intact.
Anyone want to predict if the shooter will turn out to be a left-winger or a right-winger?
I have no rational basis for this but I have a feeling it will be a right-winger, angry at Trump because there are too many trans people in the US or something like that.
Kevin McCarthy as interviewed on CBS just now is not wasting any opportunity to refer to Trump as: The President.
Snort. 
I’m thinking maganut who thinks Trump betrayed the cause somehow and/or is part of the “deep state”.
If it is a right-winger then the attempt would probably be to try to incite a civil war.
It is probably a left-winger though.
And if it actually is a right-winger the right-wing will claim it is a false-flag thing by Biden.
ETA: These days the civil war thing might actually work.
Honestly, best for the country would just be another complete nutjob like Hinckley.
Again…conspiracies take energy and competence. Go to your DMV. Do those idiots look like they can agree an what to get for lunch? Thats the government.
How many times did those idiots try and take out Castro? Thats the govt.
If you became President and your first act was to say to someone “I want to take out my third grade teacher.”. the response would be like George Clooney at the end of Oceans 11. “Ok…I know a guy.” and not the elaborate operation he just ran
Like I said, prediction markets are twitchy. At the same time, there’s a large block of voters out there that just vote for the taller guy. Or the one that looks more manly, or powerful, or whatever. And I’m pretty sure that shot of a bloodied Trump with the flag in the background is going to influence them. They already had the impression that Biden is weak.
Yeah, nothing in that post makes sense. A bullet or a shard of glass nicking an ear isn’t deafening. With regards to whether or not it helps polling before and after the event will be more illuminating than partisan speculation.
Multiple choice! I go with A.
It is a powerful image, him bloodied, fist in air. And events definitely move needles.
But this is a pretty stable race: a very stable chunk that loves Trump and nothing will change that; a different one that hates him, even if they don’t love Biden, and nothing will change that; and a group that isn’t especially crazy about either of them to one degree or another, are less likely voters, don’t follow the news much but will see this and be impacted by it … for a week which will blend in with the GOP convention bump … then back to the baseline as they are for things in the news, goldfish. The image projects strength, that is visceral, but that is not enough to get the lazy off their asses for him.
Including Trump in the list of people whose lives have been directly impacted, if not ended, by the complete disregulation of guns, will impact a very few minds. Trump staying true to his position that it wasn’t the gun that shot him but the person, or “them”, will endear him to some even as others second guess whether no regulation is such a great idea after all.
You might want to ask a mod to edit this remark out. Board rules prohibit offering to make bets here.
On the one hand, this sounds so good I wish I had wrote it.
On the other hand, given how close they are in time, a polling bounce from the shooting will be hard to distinguish from a convention bounce.