Trump will be re-elected or not depending on things that are now largely out of his control. I would put even money on a recession happening in the next two years, simply because this has been an overly long expansion already. If there is one, Trump is toast.
With the Democrats in the House, Trump will get nothing done legislatively unless he uses ‘his pen and a phone’ like Obama did - which I predict would immediately result in people screaming that Democracy has come to an end. But there will be no major bills making it through the House and Senate. So from here on in, Trump has foreign policy and immigration to meddle with, and nothing else.
Much will also depend on how the Democrats in the House behave. If they become serious and move back a bit to the center and start proposing serious and reasonable policy, they can depict Trump as the enemy of progress. If, on the other hand, they lose their minds and start wave after wave of hearings, charges, impeachment trials and float a bunch of socialist legislation no one wants, Trump will crush them.
All the Democrats have to do is not be crazy. But with people like Ocasio-Cortez in the mix, I wouldn’t count on it.
Democrats may have dodged a bullet in that almost all the ‘progressive’ candidates in tight races lost. And every Democratic Senator save one who voted against Kavanaugh lost. There’s a message in there if they are willing to listen. Identity politics is poison at the ballot box, and socialism is still a dirty word for the majority of Americans.
But the oldest die at the highest rate, and every time you replace an 85 year old with a 65 year old, you move the needle a little bit toward the left on issues like gay rights, abortion, and particularly you start to now get people who have lived the hell of getting private health insurance post job, but pre-medicare.
The economy is good here in Wisconsin and Walker lost. And he lost to a man who will get little if any of his agenda through in the face of A Republican stronghold on both sides of the legislature.
In 2012 the national economy was still fairly dismal yet Obama got reelected. I don’t think a white President of either party would have been reelected with that economy, but I digress.
In other words, I don’t think the economy is the bellwether it once was and no candidate since Bill Clinton has been able to make it be so. At least not to the level he did. And overall I don’t think the electorate actually knows what the hell it really wants.
So I wouldn’t bet a penny on what I think will happen in twenny.
Trump does need to stop flirting with gun control laws, like pointless bump stock bans. Or he is going to piss off his base like Bush Sr. did.
Unless you’re going to define political campaigning so vaguely that the word is meaningless, none of those people are currently running campaigns. In fact, none of them have even declared their intentions. Several of them never will. And even if they were, nothing that happens two years before the election will have the slightest effect on the outcome of the voters’ voting. Nobody is going to vote for Eric Holder because he gave a speech in Atlanta for Stacy Abrams.
This is not a race yet. It’s barely a conversation.
Yeah but that was just Republicans being fuckwits. They were trying to pretend that they had so much talent anyone with a suit was a strong candidate. All it did was make everyone look stupid and split the voter attention between a dozen bozos. That’s how Donald won the nomination. He was the only one who could grab and hold the spotlight.
I don’t think the Dems will field more than four or five candidates. Biden, Holder, & Delaney will fail to launch. Oprah has better things to do. Sanders & Warren are the only for sures, and I think they’re going to step on each other. I suspect Bernie’s existing campaign chops will prevail. Harris and Booker are interesting candidates. I’m not convinced they have what it takes but I could be persuaded. Hillary’s going to try again, I’m sure, but I think she’ll do nothing but drag everyone down.
I’ve seen a lot of agitation for Beto today, but I think it’s too soon for him. I hope he runs for Senate again. I wouldn’t mind if he moves to another state. I think outside of Texas he’d be a shoe-in. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see a name or two that’s not on your list, but I don’t expect it to be another clown-car.
Anyway, the party doesn’t start until next summer, when people start declaring, and the voters won’t begin to care until the debates are under way. The majority of the voters won’t actually care until after the conventions. It’s absurd to declare it all over before the jockeys even mount up.
Wait, how do you figure? That’s not remotely true, unless you meant to include something like “every democratic senator in a highly competitive election”.
They certainly don’t like Trump, so that dog won’t have legs in 2020. But in midterms with strictly Florida politicians, Republicans should be okay, just as Texas Republicans are.
Yeah, yoy’re right. I meant the ‘moderates’ who voted against Kavanaugh. Heitkamp lost. McCaskill lost. Donnely lost. Nelson lost. Joe Manchin, for voted against his party and for Kavanaugh, survived. I think other Democrats from Red or purplish states are going to take notice and be more willing to buck their party when it adopts a position that their constituents don’t like.
In the long run, this is good for the Democrats. If the moderates start pushing back against the crazy wing, the Democratic party will be healthier and more competitive.
The Democrats should consider approaching someone like Manchin for 2020. But I suspect they’ll go with some left-wing firebrand like Cory Booker. And lose.
Ocasio-Cortez should run for President in 2020.* Her name recognition is huge without doing anything yet. She has a base, a message, and she can get under the skin of people on the other side.
That’s Trump, without the lying.
*mostly tongue-in-cheek. I just found it interesting how much attention she’s getting without having set foot in Congress yet.
And Casey. And Klobuchar. And Baldwin. And Brown. And Stabenow.
In fact, if you look at the Democrats in Trump-won states and how they voted on Kavanaugh you get the following:
WV - Yes. Won
IN, MO, ND, FL - No. Lost
WI, PA, MI, OH, MT - No. Won
If you include “purplish” states that Trump lost you can add: MN (x2), VA, NM as “no” votes that won statewide.
I can’t say I see a trend there other than that Democrats run at least 3 points better than in 2016 (and MT is a bit of a special case, but clearly proves that voting “no” was not a death-knell even in a deep-red state).
That doesn’t work. Palin was pretty, sure. But she was also stupid. And the stupid overwhelmed the pretty in popular consciousness. There have been men called “another Palin.”
That doesn’t mean that you’re wrong about women being judged differently. But Palin is the wrong reference.
As for the OP, I don’t find it any better than before. As I said in another thread, we’re exactly where we expected to be, so there is no reason for our optimism to change.
Convincing people it is hopeless is a win for the other side. Even if you think it’s harder, you should be pushing that it’s hard but we can still win. If you start out defeated, you can never win.
I agree. Unless the economy crashes, Trump’s President in 2020. Hopefully he doesn’t shoot Ruth Bader Ginsburg on 5th avenue before then and nominate Sean Hannity to replace her. That would be a real blow.