If I may step in in the middle of your lovely Argument Clinic, a comment:
Having worked in primary and general campaigns, elections and recounts, both succesfully and not, I must say that I recognize it annoys many that “moral judgement” is not, except in extraordinary cases, the determinant component in how people vote. It cost me dearly in a recent campaign, but it is what happens. Now, we may question the soundness of political judgement, as in, why would that district’s GOP voters not do the politically expedient thing and relieve the guy that draws fire. And that’s where things get sticky.
Under normal circumstances, an ordinary-joe officeholder that were in as much public-perception hot water as Delay would be an ideal candidate for the Party machine to ease him out with some sort of golden parachute and replace him with a fresh, clean “Go-GOP!” up-n-comer. BUT Delay is no regular officeholder. He looms HUGE over the Texas Republican landscape, and not only consistently delivers the goods in the hometown, but to use an old phrase, “knows where all the bodies are buried”. AND he’s the engineer of the Texas redistribution.
So in that district, Delay IS the Party Machine. And this should not be news to anyone, that in midterm primaries the voter sample is even more ridiculously skewed towards the hardest partisan hardcore han usual. Delay had what counts: an organization that reliably delivered twice as many people to show up and vote for him as did the other three candidates combined. Any longtime, powerful incumbent in such a race in such a district has a GOTV advantage of orders of magnitude over the challenger. I would not be surprised if incumbents the length and breadth of the nation swept their primaries by comfortable margins. It would be intersting to see what the turnout % was in this race, and how it compares with his priors.
Although it’s true that the decisions of the “court of public opinion” are political decisions – or, if you’d rather, that elected office is “employment at will”, you can be canned for any reason, for the wrong reasons or for no reason – and it would be equally a valid decision of the voters to throw his ass out just on accusations, there’s a certain notion of “maners” in partisan politics, that you don’t shoot your wounded unless it’s clear that their injury is fatal anyway or they pose an *immediate danger * to your other candidates. From a practical partisan politics POV, he’s valuable even as damaged goods. Even a weakened Delay delivers more as a Congressman, both for his district and for the delegation, than a raw freshman. Not only that, by drawing fire on himself, the weakened Delay draws it away from other assets of the party. And of course he buys time to be possibly cleared of the accusations. Also, to the chagrin of “culture of corruption” strategists, voters have traditionally shown a tendency to not punish their local pol for what some dude two districts over did, and often to not punish the hometown favorite son no matter what.
In brief, this was possible because, on the day of the primary, Tom Delay’s organization was still (and today is still) by far the most powerful in the GOP in his district, on the basis of prolonged incumbency and succesful past partisan accomplishment. “Moral outrage” single-issue voters would have been facing an unfair fight from the start anyway. For all I know, in absence of his troubles he would have won the primary by 80%+ against a total no-name, or even ran unopposed as many powerful incumbents are used to. In that case the actual outcome would at least be progress, and something for the Dem candidate to work upon.