Trump caved. Now what?

With Trump’s (temporary) capitulation, the shutdown is now (temporarily) over. What lies ahead? If Trump can’t get funding for the wall within the next three weeks, will there be a Shutdown II? Would he have GOP support this time? What are the long-term implications of Trump’s concession? Will Trump rebound from this loss and run again in 2020? That last question may seem extreme, given that this is, after all, only one issue and that the election is almost 22 months away, but consider this from earlier this month:

And this from earlier today:

And if he does run again, how will this setback affect Trump’s odds of winning?

I doubt Trump can afford to cave a 2nd time three weeks from now. It’ll be invoke-emergency-powers or nothing. At which point some judge will probably block him and it’ll go to SCOTUS.

It’s hard to say, but Trump’s long-term plan was weak the first time around, and the three weeks thing is surprising. I think he originally thought it was his last opportunity to use his full powers and was surprised at the Democrats resolve (such as it was) and that only his stronger supporters were on his side.

I doubt he will end up using emergency powers, and will either settle for an immigration deal, less funding, more funding for more sensible interventions or nothing much. He ended the standoff for now because even his supporters among the public and GOP could not just study this blackmail.

Now he gets removed from office by the Republicans and Pence will take over. He will be given a face-saving exit, of course.

From Lindsey Graham’s lips to God’s ears.

Loser Donald is a lame duck now.

He’s afraid he’ll lose in SCOTUS if he invokes emergency powers. He probably will. The conservative justices except for Kavanaugh are originalists. Conservatives like originalists because non-originalists have a tendency to make things up and say “Well, I’m sure that if the writers had thought of it, they’d say that this is a right too.” Which Progressives like because our Constitution doesn’t protect nearly as many things as Progressives wish it did. So Conservatives like Originalists because Originalism supports a more conservative view of society. Unfortunately for Trump, there’s nothing in the Constitution that would give him the right to build walls without Congressional approval and it’s very unlikely that the original intent of the Emergency Powers Act gives him that power either, so he’s likely in trouble and knows it.

Honestly, I think the most important thing Pelosi accomplished with her Mexican standoff (not in accordance with strict usage, but what the hey) is that she drove an irrevocable wedge between Trump/Trump’s base and Senate Republicans.

Trump does not understand the importance of the independent vote in the next general election – but McConnell and Senate Republicans do. They are not going to follow him blithely down the path of destruction again. The withdrawal of their support severely undermines Trump’s ability to get anything done – including to shut down the government again.

Losing the support of Senate and House Republicans just as Mueller’s investigation begins to unravel his “administration”… well, it doesn’t bode well for Trump going forward. What happens when the indictment falls on Jared Kushner? Half of Trump’s “administration” is gone! Who will negotiate Middle East peace? Immigration reform? Opioid crisis management? Who will shuttle between Trump and Pelosi on Wall?

And what happens if Trump pardons him? Republican senators are on a hair trigger to move toward impeachment/removal if Trump does that.

I’ve thought for quite some time that Trump has expired his “use-by” date in terms of being useful to Republicans. I suspect they’d have already thrown him over in favor of Pence – except they’re not sure Pence is going to be left standing when Mueller is done. And they’re not going to get behind “President Pelosi,” no matter what.

First of all Trump did not cave, he does what Trump do, get his name in the record books, longest government shutdown, Donald Trump (in his mind, taking a tough stance). If you didn’t notice that is a big part of who he is, get his name out there.

But yeah, it’s kicking that can down the road, I would expect a rematch.

I wouldn’t. Trump didn’t actually cave, senate Republicans did. Tump got told the shutdown was going to end regardless of what he wanted, pretending it was his call was nothing but face saving. This situation does not change in three weeks, there won’t be any support for another shutdown in the senate. The state of emergency stuff is not about actually getting the wall built, its just so he can claim victory and move on without seeming like a loser.

Not likely. I think thump will act like none of this ever happened. Narcissists cannot accept reality. They live in their own reality. He’ll just go along ignoring the whole thing. Lives disrupted. Money wasted. Just a bunch of elephants in the room that will be ignored.

There will be no wall, and in a couple of weeks he’ll probably deny he ever said he wanted a wall.

The Republican party has already declared that he will be their nominee in 2020.

ETA:

This.

Remember when thump said over and over in an interview: “NOTHING MATTERS.”

The Senate is not going to support another shutdown, especially since the ATCs now know exactly how many of them have to call in sick to really get people mad.
And someone will note that if Trump gets away with this fake emergency declaration, some Democratic president can decide that gun violence or healthcare or something more real than this border crisis is an emergency and do all sorts of stuff the Republicans won’t like a bit.
I’m glad there is no Reichstag in Washington, or else Trump would burn it down and accuse the Mexicans of doing it.

I suspect that there will be a Congressional agreement with some sop - double the money for non-wall border security or even some little bit of money for a study to be completed around Jan. 2021, and it will be rammed down Trump’s throat.

Why do you think there’ll be a sop of some kind? The Dems don’t have any reason to give him a sop, do they? And if they give him a sop now, he’s likely to count that as a little victory of his own, whereas if they wait and propose non-wall security, they can still come off as being realistically tough on illegal immigration without giving Donny anything. Or are you thinking the Senate would pass such a bill and the House would pretty much have to go along with it, since it wouldn’t include a wall? But in that case, I wouldn’t see that as the GOP giving Trump, more as them trying to recover some face.

This. If Trump gets any ideas about another shutdown in three weeks, Mitch will tell him he’s on his own.

This too.

His base will do the same thing, by and large. Not so much deny it happened, but treat it as insignificant compared to whatever the big deal du jour is at whatever time you’re talking to them.

Yes, but it’s not binding, and the GOP may already regret announcing Trump as their nominee so early. In the CNN article I quoted from earlier, the GOP is worried about the impact of Trump’s wretched, wasted month on GOP fundraising efforts. Having enthusiastically abandoned many of their (supposed) principles to endorse him in the first place, they now find themselves on the proverbial tiger’s back. It’ll be interesting to see what they do.

Trump craves approval and adulation. When he realizes how much his base hates him for caving, he will be far more resilient next time.

So after 3 weeks of not coming to an agreement about the wall, I think there will be another shutdown but the house & senate will overrule a presidential veto eventually.

This is my prediction. The 3 weeks is buying some time so he can say, “See, I tried to get Congress to fix this and they wouldn’t.” Then, he declares his National Emergency nonsense, and it goes to the courts. The government avoids another shutdown, but his wall-funding will be in the courts by then.

Once Mitch explains how little support Trump has in the Senate, Trump will shut up rather than shut down.

It won’t be in the courts. The House will vote down the national emergency, and a vote from the Senate within 15 days (IIRC0 will then be required by statute. The Snate will vote it down too, and it will be dead.

I doubt it. For one thing, you’re assuming that he truly comprehends that he has been defeated. I assure you, he does not see it that way. Narcissists do not accept REALITY.

Also, he never takes advice from anyone.

Finally, you’re expecting thump to behave like a normal, rational person, which he has not done since…well, forever. Certainly not since he became president.

When people show you who they are, believe them.

Oh, I believe him, but (a) he just caved, in a situation that’s better than what he’ll encounter in three weeks, and (b) what’s the worst thing that can happen to a narcissist? Humiliation. He’s just been publicly humiliated, though (being a narcissist) he will do his best to pretend to himself and his followers that it didn’t happen. But still, he knows it did.

Three weeks from now, he will have a choice between caving publicly, caving privately, or entirely avoiding a situation where he’ll have to cave.

He’ll avoid having to cave publicly. There will be no shutdown.