What percentage of current Trump supporters would still vote for him if he was in prison or jail come election time?
I’m guessing 90%. I haven’t seen a poll on this.
Almost all I think.
But the number who dislike both Trump and Biden, and now lean toward Trump, are probably enough to determine the result.
A lot depends on details. The word jail implies less than a year of incarceration. If Trump reports on October 1 for sixty days in Rikers, voters on the fence won’t see it stopping him from doing the presidential job. So the bump for Biden could be trivial. But if Trump is made to report on November 1 for nine months, it starts looking like he wouldn’t earn his salary.
One question is whether he really would be incarcerated pending appeals. Some here say yes, but I wonder if it is wishful thinking.
Most polling concerns, to some extent, hypotheticals. But the more complex the hypothetical, thr harder to poll. And this one is complex.
If Trump is convicted, he will loudly and repeatedly predict that his appeals will be successful. And every step of the appeals process will be big news. And, realistically, he may have five Supreme Court justices on his side. Also, a mixed verdict, where he gets acquitted on a few counts to appease a holdout juror, seems highly possible. Put this all together, and a lot of voters who, in the abstract, say they would never vote for a convicted felon, actually would.
It’s tough to assign a percentage given that his supporters don’t mind that he’s a rapist, commits fraud as a matter of routine in his business dealings, denigrates veterans, sides with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies, and was the first president in our history to break the chain of peaceful transfers of power from one administration to the next. He should have already lost enough supporters to preclude any viable campaign for office but here we are.
So I’ll say 80%. I think 80% of Trump supporters will continue to vote for him. Trump could actively hurt his base and they’d still vote for him.
Not a chance in the world.
Slight sidetrack. But what evidence is there for this? Assuming he is convicted of a serious felony why would he be released pending appeal? People are released pending appeal in cases where there is a significant chance the appeal would take longer than the sentence itself. If this is not the case (most likely in either J6 case or the MAL documents case) what reason is there to think he’d be let our pending appeal?
He’s Trump.
Not in this thread, it isn’t.
Enough would not vote for him to get elected I’ve seen various poll numbers but it’s either a small majority (53%):
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4441241-trump-poll-convictions-deep-trouble/
Or a large minority (4 in 10):
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/05/politics/exit-polls-super-tuesday/index.html
Depending on which poll you believe. Even if it’s the lower side that is enough to mean he probably won’t get elected. The fact it’s even a reasonable possibility that a candidate for POTUS might get convicted of a felony and still get elected is batshiat. But thats the world we live in.
Easy. 100 percent. How could anyone who doesn’t mind that care about business records falsification? I can’t believe that the difference between civil and criminal, or misdemeanor and felony, is something they would focus on.
Only Trump voters who already mind that he’s a rapist will be bothered by him posting on Truth Social from Rikers Island.
One polling prediction: If Trump is incarcerated, the number of shy Trumpers will skyrocket.
P.S. If Trump goes to jail, he’ll probably lose. But that’s because there are real swing/uncertain voters. Everyone with his picture in their work cubicle will still vote for him.
What does “trump supporter” mean? Current people who usually vote an R ticket? Current people who own at least 2 pieces of MAGA merch?
Of the people who believe only trump can save America, 100% of those will vote for him in Nov even if he’s in solitary confinement since April and never had a chance to campaign at all. “It’s the only way to free him so he can save us!!1!” will be their rallying cry.
Of the “I usually vote R, but trump is a bit beyond the pale right now” crowd, probably half would decide he’s fully beyond the pale and sit out were trump imprisoned. The other half would say “any living R is better than the best possible D”, hold their nose, and vote for trump.
Note that a righty abstaining is only half as effective at stopping trump as is that same righty voting for Biden. It’s nice to get them to abstain, but it’s much nicer to get them to vote for Biden. Even if they also end up voting a straight R ticket down-ballot.
People that planned to vote for Trump.
Well said.
You are well named.