If Trump and the GOP congress repeals Obamacare, that is 20-30 million people who will lose their health insurance. :(:(
I have no idea how to talk to my kids about him. There’s nothing noble, inspiring, good, decent, respectable or honorable about him. His campaign was insults and bragging-- those are not qualities I want my kids to emulate. He’s a known cheater, a sexual predator, sexist, foul-mouthed, racist, intolerant, selfish, greedy, and just does not have the values I want my kids to learn.
We’d been reading about Hillary with our kids over the past few weeks, and my five-year-old daughter was excited to have a “girl president.” We incorporated Hillary’s story and this presidential election with conversations about respect, equality, peace, tolerance, bullying, the environment, etc. My daughter hung several Hillary signs in her room. We let them stay up late and have an appetizer dinner in front of the TV (til they fell asleep around 9).
I honestly don’t know how to approach this tomorrow morning. I suppose his supporters can read this and feel superior to us dumb liberals, but…fuck.
The usual way is to wait while the economy tanks and the morons who always vote “change” will again want more “change” in the other direction.
Your system is what got you a Trump presidency.
Parts of Canada (Victoria, Vancouver) are quite mild.
My sig line has become far too accurate. My sympathies are with all US Americans tonight, and my prayers go out to all the world.
Happy, among the hundreds of things my wife and I are fearing/deeply worried about now (Supreme Court, millions losing their health insurance, legitimizing jerkishness, economic decline…), the most immediate and poignant is what to tell our six-year-old tomorrow…and how to resign ourselves to his spending his most important, formative childhood years in a Trump-tinged country.
My prediction. Trump will say a lot of silly shit. Then, when it comes time to sign bills, he will walk it back. ‘Build a WALL!’ becomes an increase border security staff. Decrease taxes and lower spending becomes very minor tax cuts with little to no spending cuts. Etc.
I think his default position on every situation where you will end up having to compromise is to demand something way beyond what you actually want then negotiate back.
I suspect that not a whole lot will change actually except politics will get a little nastier.
On the bright side, I am pretty liquid in my portfolio which means in a week or two I get to buy in at a discount.
Slee
May I interest you in a killer robot? 
Actually, one question I’ve been asking myself on this specific issue is: what then? What happens to both the health care system and the politicians who caused the change? Are we just assuming that both they and those who agree with them will be able to happily ignore the consequences without consequences of their own? Maybe so, but I’m not taking that as a given.
I am not especially liberal but I am going to run into the same problem with daughters, especially my 10 year old. She hates Trump so much she can’t even stand to see him on a magazine cover. I have never been a big fan of Hillary Clinton but I resigned myself to her because she is actually qualified as an administrator and might inspire my daughters. That was the most important thing to me given the choices. It is heartbreaking that probably won’t happen now.
What will I do? Go to work tomorrow and move along from there.
Not full of. They are still a minority block, AFAIK.
And I’m not sure the Senate Republicans are ready to go that route because, once they do it, they can’t get it back.
Today I told my kids that one of the reasons that our country is great is that even if we elect a person that is not a good president the country will continue and we will be able to choose a different president in 4 years.
It’s not so much that 538 was wrong. It’s that we had an unheard of polling flaw that knocked us around 5% off. That ruined everyone. And it makes polling something that I won’t be looking at ever again.
Unless things go really badly for democracy, as they did after 1876. A big chunk of the “we” that voted was never allowed to vote again.
They’ve ignored the consequences of everything they’ve done for the last 35 years, why should another 4 years make a difference?
Indeed, 538 was very right (compared to just about any single poll, of other aggregators). Nate Silver took a lot of flak for building so much uncertainty into his model --such that Trump consistently WON one out of every three or for runs – but he has been vindicated.
Anyone who thinks “but Hillary was at 70% chance, so she had to win!” doesn’t get how LOW 70% is.
The polling probably wasn’t that far off. It is just that Hillary was unusually uninspirational and lots of her core minority constituency didn’t bother to even vote because they assumed she would win. Meanwhile, the Trump supporters were actually fired up. I voted in Massachusetts (for Gary Johnson) which was a lock for Clinton but there was still a crowd of loyal Trump supporters waving signs as close to the high school as they were legally allowed. Clinton had zero and I can only imagine what it was like in areas that were actually contested.
The media and polling did not do her any favors by predicting a premature victory in many states. All it takes is one in 20 real voters to show up or not to throw the final results way off.
That’s all I hope for. I pray Trump’s presidency won’t be an unmitigated disaster. I don’t see myself leaving the country. Besides, if you want to leave the country because your candidate didn’t win, we’re better off without you. It doesn’t matter who won. You’re just fair-weather Americans. I say that as one who voted for Hillary and have a sinking feeling in my stomach right now. We need to get out the vote in 2018 and return Congress to the Democrats, then get a viable candidate for POTUS in 2020 who can undo any damage that Trump might cause.
Exactly. If you have ten cards - 7 blue and 3 red - and draw one blindfolded at random, it is entirely possible that you will draw a red card.
I actually repeated something that one of the contributors to 538 had written, which is that the polling averages and aggregates were within the error. So Silver, or someone over there at 538, caught this and thought it was significant enough to write about it. Turns out, polling error is exactly what happened.
What I - and probably everyone - got way wrong was that the polling error would actually shift in favor of Donald Trump. I had assumed that the voters flying under the radar were Hispanics and young voters. But there was a massive surge in rural and suburban white voters that was not correctly accounted for.
In 2012, the pollsters realized that they had a challenge in finding Hispanic and millennial voters. In 2016, pollsters now realize they have another challenge, which is measuring the rural and suburban white voters.