I think the Republicans shot themsleves in the foot with the abortion issue.
Logically, and based on what everyone else is saying in this thread, you’re wrong. But sadly, in my gut, I have the exact same fears that you expressed.
To me, and depending on the outcome, this will either validate or invalidate every ignorant, mess-deck lawyer, bullying, low-life, blow-hard, anti-intellectual, conspiracy theorist, might-is-right, xenophobic a-hole out there.
If he’s acquitted, there will be no appeal after the trial. The government can’t appeal an acquittal.
If there’s a very bad ruling by the trial court before or during trial, the government will have to decide whether to appeal it right then, putting everything in the trial court on hold for the time the appeal takes.
There will be redactions at trial. It isn’t something that would have been declassified, so it can’t be revealed to the trial participants like the jury. There will be a description of what type of information was redacted, like in the indictment.
And yes, to me that photo is one of the most harmful to Trump. The boxes were not securely stored, and in fact, someone may well have actually accessed them.
I agree with your concern and in spite of the great references above to how serious this is, it is still within the domain of ‘administrative work’ as far as the general public is really concerned. These charges do not undermine his authority or stain his commitment to the great cause as far as the MAGA crowd is concerned.
Only a final unassailable unappealable verdict will convince me that this is true and not just wishful thinking. Only when it becomes legally impossible for him to run for president; only then will I buy it all.
I don’t think even Jesus himself coming down and speaking in the mind of every human on earth would “invalidate” conspiracy theorists.
Well said.
Okay in my family there are 16 out of 20 who voted for Trump in '16 and '20. I polled 'em last night and they’re going to vote for him unless he’s no longer running. None of the 8 would change to any other candidate unless Trump were removed from the ballot. I was casual about supporting Biden & Harris until now but push came to shove.
Anyone saying Trump will have to quit is insane. There is no legal reason he has to quit and if he wins he is safe, if anything every charge pushes further into his current path. But this IS a big deal, this charges would not be brought without a 100% certainty that they can be proven.
I listened to BBC News on NPR on my drive home tonight and they were talking about the indictment and its implications. They had some knucklehead on who was a Trump supporter and insisted that the indictment will only help Trump, that it’s a “big old nothingburger” (his actual words) and that it shouldn’t be allowed to happen because the DOJ works at Biden’s orders, and Trump is looking like Biden’s likely opponent in the upcoming election.
I just wondered, by that logic anyone should be able to declare themselves a candidate and suddenly be immune from all federal prosecution. What a wonderful country that would make!
By the way, I love BBC News. The anchor guy did not let the BS go unanswered. He pushed back quite a bit, and only stopped when he conceded that he wasn’t going to get anywhere with the guy.
My concern about Judge Cannon is her role in voir dire. Trump’s defense is to hope for a hung jury and she could try to get a few Maga types on the jury. All it takes is one.
I certainly think the indictment matters. So will the next one, and the one after that. I think it’s likely their collective significance will prove greater than the sum of their parts. They may not cause Trump to quit the presidential race, but his ability to campaign effectively will be diminished.
Granted, no prosecutor ever wants to take unnecessary risks with a case – including going with a judge known for partisanship - it may be a willful calculation to go with Cannon, as the DOJ will be able to plausibly deny that Trump, if convicted, got a raw deal from a judge who had it in for him. Any guilty verdict won’t make a difference to Trump’s CT-minded hardcore supporters, but appearances do seem to matter to the DOJ and the greater public-at-large.
This trial is not set for next March. That’s the trial in New York. At the state level. Which does not entitle him to a pardon.
This case, a federal criminal case, won’t be set for trial until the arraignment.
That trial date will be quick. You’ll be tempted to get your hopes really high.
But…
The clock also stops if a motion is filed.
So it won’t happen in 2 months. But 9-12 months is reasonable.
More than a year is extreme.
He only needs a couple. Or one. And Judge Loose Canon is likely to give him that.
I’m not 100% convinced that this judge would tank the case for donald. As I understand it, what makes her controversial was appointing a special master to review the documents that were taken by the FBI, right? To me, that sounds more like a judge who decided to “punt” the issue by letting somebody else make a ruling, and reflects inexperience in the job and a lack of confidence in he own decision making. It’s not necessarily maliciousness.
She has her own professional reputation. She’s probably planning on being a judge long after donald is dead. It doesn’t take that much effort to let the US Attorneys present their case and let a jury decide a verdict. She might be ok.
(Although I must disagree with talk of having her recused. That’s not something casually done at the federal level, and it’s not a realistic option in my opinion).
Look at the larger picture.
Everybody said Trump was teflon. He lost every case brought against him, but none of them hurt him. Even when he was found guilty of defamation it meant nothing.
Wrong. It meant it cleared the way for all the other prosecutions. A former president could be tried in court just like anybody else. The Carroll case was like a jab that rattles a boxer. This case is a huge body blow. Trump is hysterically scared. His own lawyers made the case against him. His current lawyers are leaving him.
We will soon see other indictments, made by emboldened prosecutors. Some of them will be state D.A.s so that any convictions could not be cleared by presidential pardons. (State pardons are always possible, but don’t have the same national weight.) Trump is already screaming that trials will cut into his campaign schedule, but if this case is in the legal system the others can emulate it, and do so pre-election.
I’m not saying that Trump’s base will abandon him, or that the Republicans in Congress will be less Republican-y. Perhaps just the opposite. He will be in the headlines, taking up all the oxygen. Every moment, every word of his trial will fill not just the news but these threads every day. Ford pardoned Nixon for exactly this reason.
A cult leader can ride on this wave, but only so far. A second wave will hurt, and a third, fourth, fifth hurt even more. The Republican debates are upended: participants have to pledge to support the nominee. If they allow Trump in, they are pledging themselves to him, and therefore fail. If they don’t, they are the enemy and therefore fail.
Debates are only one small issue that a series of trials disrupts. Every normal aspect of a presidential election is thrown out the door. Normally, a candidate, even a former president, on trial for espionage is a doomed figure. Trump is now, to mix metaphors, a bull with two banderillas. The first annoyed him. The second hurt badly. Bulls are especially dangerous at this point. Nevertheless they are on a downward path, and getting several more inserted leads to the finish.
This is what gets me. Why?
If it was you or me we’d be in prison real fast.
Hell, Bernie Madoff, a rich guy, went from arrest to prison in six months (give or take).
Why all the faffing about? Give him his day in court then lock him up already (assuming he is found guilty which I expect he will be…prosecutors will definitely want this to be a slam dunk win for them). We certainly do not need this happening in the midst of election season and see him marched to prison in October and riling up his nutjobs.
Food for thought:
Who do you think the civil verdict for sexual assault/defamation would be more important to?
Anyone that cared about how Trump assaults women already hates him. His base doesn’t care and even encourages that sort of stuff. At worst, maybe they thought it was some “he said, she said” sort of misinterpretation.
But those idiots love to wear their supposed super-patriotism on their sleeves. They worship the military. To them, the mishandling (and probably selling) of state military and nuclear secrets should be one of the most horrific crimes they could think of. If any democrat were the one credibly accused of this, they would’ve lost their fucking minds.
I think they’re so detached from sanity that for many of them it won’t matter, but to the hard-core super patriot military worshipper types who are only 99% in the cult of Trump and not 100%, this should certainly give them massive pause.
I think you’re vastly underselling the damage that can be done in that arena. We’re talking about potentially giving plans for advanced nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons launch platforms that make our enemies more capable and therefore more likely to end our civilization. We’re talking about giving them strengths and weaknesses and attack plans that would embolden them in a nuclear strike, if the circumstances warranted it. We’re potentially giving away the identity of spies, people who work with the state department, and others who may lose their lives. We’re also talking about giving them methods, deployments, and weapon system data - stuff that can and likely will be used to kill our soldiers in the field. Depending on what was stolen, this is potentially the largest case of espionage in all of history. This is not only life-or-death, but it’s potentially something that changes the balance for an existential threat to humanity.
Happened long ago.
I agree with all of this.
And is it really that much of a leap to believe that, for example, a Saudi sheik might have mentioned how valuable information about, say, the military capabilities of Israel would be? Or that Putin just expressed “curiosity” about the sorts of plans being exchanged amongst Western European powers.
Trump doesn’t have to be a cunning genius to take advantage of selling state secrets - a useful idiot does just fine, too.