Trump's upcoming turnaround

Politics & Elections
1

Yesterday I was inwardly chortling about Bannon’s ouster, thinking it a further sign of an inexorable downward spiral for Trump, his administration and - hopefully - the Repubs’ future. Then I had a horrible thought, which I haven’t been able to shake since. What if Trump didn’t keep going down? What if we had to go through all this horror of his ineptitude and ugliness, only to later experience the horror of him and the Republican party ascendant?

Tell me if this isn’t at least plausible - if not likely.
-He’s got his 30-35% who will support him no matter what.
-He’s succeeded at setting the bar so ridiculously low for himself and his administration, it wouldn’t take too terribly much to have the press portray him as succeeding - if only in comparison to his first 6+ months. Think how all it took was reading from a teleprompter to be declared “presidential” during the campaign.
-Anything Kelly and anyone new does HAS to seem darned professional and competent compared to the clusterfuck so far.
-The press loves a story, and what type of story is better than a turnaround? Reporting change can be more appealing that simply retelling the same story of gloom and doom.
-Folk tend to give all presidents credit for things they have little impact on. If the economy continues to plug away, enough people may think he really isn’t that bad. Worst of all, a timely invasion or war has proven to do wonders for public support. And if only it weren’t for the interference of those darned Democrats, just think what more he could have accomplished!
-If the Repubs don’t take a beating in the midterms, I see less reason for them to back another presidential candidate. And there are enough solid red districts/states who will continue to vote for any non-Dem.
-Americans can be suckers for a turnaround story. After all, he was “new at this.” What did anyone expect?
-Meanwhile, Trump, his family, and his cronies will have figured out how to best profit from their status, which much of the electorate and government doesn’t seem all that concerned about. Why should he give that up?
-I can imagine the Repubs figuring out how to succeed under him - either getting together internally, or moderates reaching across the aisle - to achieve their agenda within Trump’s lack of direction/guidance/assistance. Meanwhile, the conservative agenda is being advanced through the appointment of young judges, and the whittling away of regulations and administrative protections within the bureaucracy.

I’m not saying its a done deal or anything, but now that this idea has gotten ahold of me, I can’t shake it. I truly fear that a turnaround is more likely than any resignation/impeachment.

What do you think? Am I creating monsters in my imagination? PLEASE, convince me that I’m completely off base!

2

You are over estimating the cohesion of the republicans. They are not a monolithic entity, and the are struggling enormously with intra-party politics as much as they are with the Dems. Remember McCain’s vote didn’t kill the ACA repeal. It killed the attempt to kick the can down the road form one house that couldn’t get a majority to trying to get both houses to come to a complete majority.

The largely tea-party GOP house, and the Establishment GOP Senate, each don’t really want each other to succeed very much and gain influence, let alone give a chance for the whatever the hell Trumpism is to take over for more than a flash in the pan.

3

Haven’t we already had the turnaround narrative a couple of times already? Right after the election, and after the Syria airstrike, and maybe one or two others? It never lasts, because Trump never stops being vain, petty, and vindictive, and also because he really has no idea HOW to accomplish any of the stuff he theoretically wants to accomplish.

4

You have to think of all the things he can say and do that are worse than what he’s already said and done.

No bottom yet, gets worse every week.

Don’t catch a falling knife.

5

I hope you are right, but I fear otherwise. How many things his he said/done that would have been unthinkable for any other president. What portion of folk will become inured to his outrages? Boorishness can quickly become the new normal. Some likely are entertained by his “politics as reality TV.” And at the conniptions he causes liberals. Others simply get bored by the same old story. The media doesn’t need different facts to present a different narrative.

I keep realizing that we are a short way into an election cycle. We have a long way to go, even to the midterms. And the American public has certainly shown a willingness to forget the past if sufficiently distracted. All the dumbfuck has to do is keep his piehole shut and forget his Twitter password, and he’d be lauded as a genius!

6

What bothers you, doesn’t bother me so much. For one thing, “Trump succeeding” isn’t necessarily bad. What I mean by that is, that “success” would NOT mean that he managed to get lots of horrible legislation passed that destroyed the country. It would mean that he managed to finally get some things done.

What might he get done? Start building the absurd wall? That would at least put more people to work in the construction industry. Get a health care bill passed? That depends on the exact bill, but given what we’ve seen Congress struggle to do so far, something that got rid of the tax penalties might be a small good thing.

The worst thing he could do, would be to follow the worst of the Republicans, and push through yet ANOTHER reduction in top tier taxes, and pay for the cut for the rich by heaping even more burdens on the Customer Classes, thus dragging the economy down even further.

The real problem that bothers me much more, is the nightmare that the Democrats now sound exactly like the Republicans did when THEY were out of power. That is, they are presenting ZERO ALTERNATIVE IDEAS, and are instead still relying on the strategy that cost them the White House: watching and taunting as the Republicans make stupid mistakes, hoping that people will vote the other way out of pique alone. The GOP was satisfied to do that for a full eight years under Obama, which is why they lost to him in 2012.

If the Democrats don’t wake up and realize that they actually have to LEAD, they will certainly leave Trump on control, with the Republicans running Congress.

7

I don’t disagree with any of that. But what you haven’t mentioned so far is the likelihood that actual criminal conduct–possibly that Trump won’t be able to pardon himself for–will be documented and laid out in so plain a way that it can’t be ignored–not even by Congressional Republicans.

Remember that they are increasingly frustrated by the fact that they’re not getting anything substantial done.

If the evidence is plain and unmistakable enough, AND the GOP is exhausted by all the drama, AND they decide the Trump-association will hurt them more than help them in 2018…then they will pull the plug.

(In my opinion that means ‘go to him and promise he can keep his loot and stay out of prison if he resigns’ rather than impeachment, but in any case, he will be gone.)

Their exhaustion and frustration is growing. And he almost certainly has committed crimes. It could all come together.

8

Trump’s biggest problem now is the legal investigation hanging over his presidency, but there’s the possibility that Mueller might not bring charges against him. And in any case, nobody really knows what kind of information (dirt) he has.

Politically, it’s still quite within the realm of possibility that Trump becomes more an economically focused president and figured out how to position himself between the tea party and the more centrist Republicans. If he can find a way to get tax reform (i.e. massive cuts) passed, he will have scored a much-needed touchdown. The alt-right thing isn’t working for him - he needs to distance himself from that fringe. But he can still be a pretty hardcore ballsy opponent of illegal and even legal immigration, and that might still keep some of his base intact. He actually doesn’t need to do much to get back on the right track, other than letting the investigation going forward and staying at arm’s length of the alt-right. He could push back against Trump. I just find it hard he has the discipline to follow through.

9

igor - you make a lot of sense. Unfortunately, I fear that the tax cuts will be job #1, before any infrastructure/employment efforts. Moreover, “success” for him could be assessed as nothing more than not doing something incredibly stupid for a week…

I share your unease at the lack of constructive engagement by the Dems. Spot on.

10

The man, among other things, pretended he could sell “steaks” via The Sharper Image. And he parlayed that bizarre career into the White House.

I keep saying he will die in office. Look how long Italy was stuck with Berlusconi.

11

Be careful what you wish for; you might get it. What is worse than an incompetent asshole? Maybe a competent asshole. Suppose Pence becomes president. A man who has all the worst instincts that Trump has but knows how to work with Congress. Bye bye ACA, reduced Medicaid. Medicare replaced by vouchers that severely limit the amount of care. Social Security gutted.

Granted Pence is much less likely to push the nuclear button, but that’s the only way he is better than Trump. Although that is unimaginably large.

12

Trump couldn’t pivot if you shoved a flagpole up his ass and strapped him to a weathervane.

My fervent hope is that Mueller’s investigations grab Pence too. There’s a good chance of that, since Pence was on the inside during the transition and likely knew about all the Russian contacts. We could get a two-fer here.

13

I think it’s popcorn time! If you thought the first 200 days were interesting, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

One thing that struck me about the “Unite the Right” rally was the rampant anti-Semitism, instead of the usual focus on blacks, Muslims and Mexicans.

So I’m pretty sure that the purpose of the Unite the Right" rally was to send a message to Trump, a message that they can make his life pretty damn uncomfortable if he doesn’t make a hard right turn. They feel they delivered him the Presidency and they want him to make good on his promises. They’re not going to take NO for an answer. And the anti-Semitism is an attempt to cause a rift between Trump and the “globalists”

Remember how Trump was kind of rambling about how Bannon “came on very late” after he had already won the primary? I bet he threw that out because Bannon said something to him to the effect of " I put you here, and I can take you out.

And I bet Bannon really did decide to resign after Kelly came on board. He was being marginalized anyway and probably realized he could work much more effectively from the outside. After all, he saw that Fox News had a greater influence on Trump than he did.

And Bannon probably has REAL dirt on Trump that he can hold over him.

And the attempt by the alt-right to alienate the globalist wing sort of worked! The anti-Semitism and Trump’s subsequent behavior was highly uncomfortable for the NY Goldman Sachs crowd. Because they have parents and children and brothers and sisters and friends who are mostly Democrats.I think the appeasement right now is that these guys and their friends are afraid that the markets will tank if they walk out so they’re gritting their teeth and hanging on.

But Breitbart’s declared war on them, so there’s that. Who knows?

And Icahn did leave an advisory position bit I got the impression that may have been more about his advice being ignored than racism.

And I want to apologize to Mr. Trump for doubting him when he said he would be working while on vacation. He actually worked twice as hard and fucked up twice as much stuff as he did when he was in the Oval Office. And that’s a high bar to clear .

But now he’s going to get the frustration of more stalled legislation, because it can’t help but stall because Trump.
No one will say it out loud, but the reason Repeal and Replace can’t help but fail is the idiot in chief spent a year on the campaign trail promising to replace ObamaCare with " health care for all at a fraction of the cost." And he had a secret plan. Which was apparently to tell Ryan and McConnell to make a secret plan.

So that circus will continue on top of the palace intrigue. Now things may not implode right away, because sometimes a plane can fly just fine on autopilot even if there’s an idiot in the cockpit.

But sooner or later there will be another incident that requires a Presidential response ( a natural disaster, industrial accident, terror attack or another act of political violence or something else). And he’ll be completely tone deaf and narcissistic. I actually can’t believe that him pushing his winery ( which isn’t even his) in response to a question about if he planned to visit Charlottesville didn’t get more traction.

On the other hand, he’s kind of gotten Republicans to a place where they’ll defend anything he does. It kind of like putting a frog in a pot of water and gradually turning up the heat.

And then there’s Russia.

TL/DR Who knows? We’ll see what happens but uncharted territory and all that.

14

Good one :D.

I might “borrow” it.

15

Let’s not jump to conclusions. We should at least give it a try.

16

I think the Republicans and Trump will continue to gain power through 2020 at least. I don’t necessarily think that’s a good thing I just think they have a strategy that will work and has little to do with the laundry list of things in the OP.

17

You mean it MIGHT NOT be a good thing? :eek:

18

All Trump has to do to turn things around is to start a war. Then people will rally around the President. Look at the two Bush Presidencies for examples of how this works.

19

There’s no predicting, but certainly it seems like thinking for the hundredth time that “this time he’s going down” is not going to be productive.

20

Who was Bannon? A media guy who helped Trump during the election. He was also a target of the alt-left, and by having him out of the white house, a target is removed, HOWEVER, Bannon can still do the same work, he’s only been removed from a large microscope.

If you paying attention, the economy is doing better than Obama ever had it, and it has only been 6 months. Illegal immigration is down. If tax cuts or a better smarter border wall is built, Trump really will have something, and he’s already put in one supreme court justice who’s very young and poised to add a second.

The turnaround can happen. What good are the polls anyway? Anyone who takes CNN or NBC at face value without noticing their slanted news is a fool.

What I know about Politics is this. You just can’t keep grinding at a group for a long period of time and expect them to be quiet on election day.