Josh Marshall has the interesting point that it appears this was an aerial confrontation/dogfight, and Russia lost. Russia’s military technology may be a few steps (or more!) behind NATO, and losing face in confrontations like this might push Russia towards more belligerent behavior to make up for it.
As God is my witness, I thought Turkeys could fly.
Su-24 is a ground attack plane/light bomber. They are not going to use it for dogfighting or A2A battles, its not designed for it.
Wrong all the way through.
“Reactionary Islam” isn’t about to cause the Turkish state to break up, and Putin - like everybody else - knows this.
Oh hell.
I had hopes of the Turks releasing a live pilot.
Not to mention Turkey is a NATO nation and the EU and USA wouldn’t allow it.
The Russian bird was a striker, has no business mixing it up with an F 16. So if you want to use fairness as a metric, not a chance. If it was a mig 29, then I would still put it as a pilot to pilot thing in single combat. You would need a war, to determine the better plane overall, and we have that with Israel destroying the Syrian airforce in 82.
Declan
The Su-24 is the furthest thing from a frontline fighter left in the Russian arsenal. It’s a Cold War era attack aircraft similar to the F-111. (edit - I just got ninja’d twice over on this).
Russian strike fighters repeatedly violated Turkish airspace in early October, and Turkey responded in a civil manner by visually intercepting the Russian aircraft and escorting them out of the area. Unfortunately, this time the pilot was killed, but it seems to me that Turkey felt the need to bloody Putin’s nose a bit to show him that they’re serious about the sovereignty of their airspace.
It’s a rebel Syrian group, not the Turks. Expect withering airstrikes in the area, probably starting tonight.
Uh, sorry, but you get an “F” in History class. World powers like stability, which means supporting the status quo unless there is a particularly compelling reason not to. Causing Turkey to break up doesn’t improve anybody’s stability (except perhaps ISIS’).
As for the Kurds, the sad fact is absolutely nobody gives a damn what happens to them. The Turks hate them, the Syrians hate them, the Iraqis hate them, and the Iranians hate them. The only reason they haven’t been wiped out is that the aforementioned nations aren’t coordinated enough to arrange a Kurdish genocide.
Right now, it’s convenient for the US to ally with the Kurds to help fight ISIS, but at the end of the day, they’ll need to look out for themselves. We’ve left them to twist in the wind before. The US promised them a Kurdish state if they rose up against Saddam Hussein, then conveniently forgot when the First Gulf War ended with Saddam still in power. Saddam didn’t forget, however, and launched nerve gas attacks against Kurdish villages in vengence. And really, all signs indicate we’ll do so again this time. Nobody in power is even talking about a Kurdish state, so the odds of it happening are basically a perfect 0%.
“Wow, that felt GREAT! I’ve wanted to do something like that since the 1820’s!”
In this BBC piece Putin claims it was hit “at a height of 6,000 metres (20,000ft), 1km from the border”, and that it crashed into Syrian territory 4km from the border.
Looking at the pic, if I’m reading the red path correctly, and that is displaying what the radar picked up, it shows the jet’s path was in Turkey airspace for at least some of the time.
You mean 3. Tom 1 and Tom 2 have already gotten their pardons this year.
Pentagon supposedly released a statement that says it conciders it a Russia V Turkey and does not include the US.
Declan
You are forgetting that Turkey has been supporting ISIS and bombing the Kurds fighting them.
KIck Turkey out of NATO.
I don’t know man. As Kissinger says, “Despite popular myths, large military units do not fight by accident.” There is no desire for war between Russia and NATO on the part of either party. This will be smoothed over and will be old news by next week.
I disagree. Turkey should win the “NATO Member of the Month” award for not taking Russia’s crap. I think it comes with a nice parking space at SHAPE.
Right or wrong, Putin is going to take this real personal. He seems like a guy that likes to hold grudges for a really long time.
Is NATO going to back Turkey against Russia?
Is NATO going to back France against ISIS?
Is NATO worth more than the paper it’s charter is written on?
This incident worries me. I see the potential for this to blow up into something ugly. Putin is an old school Russian and he has been spoiling for a fight. He has consolidated considerable political power and basically, if he wants to escalate conflict in that area, he has the means to do so. Granted, just like other old school Russians, Putin is big on saber rattling rhetoric and that may be all this amounts to. But it would be foolish to just assume that rhetoric is all there is to it.
If it comes to a shooting war, then yes. But that won’t happen.
In order not to provoke Russia, France has made sure not to ask for NATO help. Instead, they have asked for a larger and more inclusive coalition - one which would include Russia.
Yes.
Turkey believes the two pilots are alive and claims to be working for their release from Syrian rebels.
Putin, predictably, is posturing. "The Turkish side immediately turned to their partners from NATO to discuss this incident, as if we shot down their plane and not they ours.”