McConnell signal to Republican Senate candidates - distance from Trump if necessary: McConnell signal to Republican Senate candidates: Distance from Trump if necessary | CNN Politics
Man - gotta stop looking at threads like this. Past experience is that this sorta predication just makes the letdown harder. Hope these predications energize Dems, rather than breeding complacency.
NC will be close no matter what outsiders say. Tillis is running lots of ads against Cunningham.
Trump’s coattails no boon for GOP Senate candidates: Trump's coattails no boon for GOP Senate candidates | CNN Politics
GOP dread over possible Kobach nomination in Kansas: GOP dread over possible Kobach nomination in Kansas - POLITICO
So do I understand that Trump’s base voters favor Kobach, the likelier of the two candidates to lose, while the GOP establishment understands the threat and wants this Marshall fella? That is the kind of juicy dilemma that the Republican Party will be facing for the next decade and it brings me great joy.
A Democrat beat Kobach for governor two years ago. Barbara Bollier, a former Republican herself, could beat him in this Senate race and an unexpected win in Kansas would be a gift from Og to the Dems.
Tuesday poll dump. 13 weeks to E-day!
Mostly good news for the best path for team D to 50 (win AZ, CO, ME, NC, lose AL). The worst poll of the week is Montana R+6, but Montana and IA are both stretch goals.
I’d like more polls from Maine and Montana going forward. Someone make some calls or something.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Morning Consult | 609 LV | Doug Jones 35% | Tommy Tuberville 52% | R + 17% |
| Arizona | 7/19/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 858 LV | Mark Kelly 53% | Martha McSally 35% | D + 18% |
| Arizona | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 365 LV | Mark Kelly 47% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 2% |
| Georgia | 7/23/2020 - 7/27/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 RV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 49% | R + 6% |
| Georgia | 7/23/2020 - 7/27/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 LV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 50% | R + 7% |
| Georgia | 7/23/2020 - 7/27/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 LV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 51% | R + 8% |
| Georgia | 7/28/2020 - 7/31/2020 | YouGov | 1101 LV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 45% | R + 2% |
| Kentucky | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Morning Consult | 793 LV | Amy McGrath 36% | Mitch McConnell 53% | R + 17% |
| Maine | 7/18/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Colby College | 888 LV | Sara Gideon 44% | Susan M. Collins 39% | D + 5% |
| Michigan | 7/19/2020 - 7/21/2020 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 40% | John James 34% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 7/19/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 811 LV | Gary C. Peters 52% | John James 35% | D + 17% |
| Michigan | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 413 LV | Gary C. Peters 48% | John James 44% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 7/28/2020 - 7/29/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 876 V | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 39% | D + 8% |
| Minnesota | 7/22/2020 - 7/23/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 1218 V | Tina Smith 48% | Jason Lewis 39% | D + 9% |
| Montana | 7/31/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Emerson College | 584 LV | Steve Bullock 44% | Steve Daines 50% | R + 6% |
| New Hampshire | 7/16/2020 - 7/28/2020 | University of New Hampshire | 1893 LV | Jeanne Shaheen 54% | Don Bolduc 35% | D + 19% |
| New Hampshire | 7/16/2020 - 7/28/2020 | University of New Hampshire | 1893 LV | Jeanne Shaheen 54% | Corky Messner 35% | D + 19% |
| North Carolina | 7/19/2020 - 7/21/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 919 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 36% | D + 11% |
| North Carolina | 7/22/2020 - 7/24/2020 | Cardinal Point Analytics (CardinalGPS) | 735 LV | Cal Cunningham 43% | Thom Tillis 43% | R + 0% |
| North Carolina | 7/24/2020 - 7/26/2020 | Change Research | 284 LV | Cal Cunningham 52% | Thom Tillis 40% | D + 12% |
| North Carolina | 7/28/2020 - 7/31/2020 | YouGov | 1121 LV | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 39% | D + 9% |
| South Carolina | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Morning Consult | 741 LV | Jaime Harrison 43% | Lindsey Graham 44% | R + 1% |
| Texas | 7/25/2020 - 7/29/2020 | Global Strategy Group/Latino Decisions | 700 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 42% | John Cornyn 43% | R + 1% |
| Texas | 7/24/2020 - 8/2/2020 | Morning Consult | 2576 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 38% | John Cornyn 44% | R + 6% |
With about 40% of the precincts reporting, Marshall just declared victory. I expect Marshall to beat Bollier, but it won’t be easy. Marshall touted his close ties to Trump and Trump’s policies during the primary campaign. We’ll see if he continues that same message during the general election. Both Roger Marshall and Barbara Bollier are doctors.
The positive takeaway from tonight, I hope, is that the political career of Kris Kobach is over.
I’m kind of hopeful he keeps running for stuff, forcing the GOP to defend against him.
Well Kansas is probably off the map, but that was always an “icing on the cake” scenario for Democrats. I continue to be concerned about Georgia. Democrats don’t need either seat for a majority, but their path gets a lot easier if they’re competitive. Given the absolute shit show of a pandemic response from Trump and Kemp, I’d expect polling to be more positive.
I think as we all consider our potential political donations in the months ahead, the Democratic Party of Georgia might be a good recipient of our cash.
I’m expecting the Kansas race to be fairly competitive. Bollier is a former moderate R turned D, so she may be able to pull in votes from Never Trumpers, especially now that Marshall has been endorsed by Trump following his primary victory. And it sounds like Bollier’s campaign has a ton of outside money pouring in.
Assuming wins in Colorado and Arizona, Democrats need to win two of the following senate races, listed in descending order of likelihood, and the White House, to control the chamber.
| State | P(D) |
|---|---|
| NC | 80.6% |
| ME | 77.1% |
| IA | 48.7% |
| MT | 47.7% |
| GA | 23.6% |
| GA* | 14.4% |
| SC | 14.4% |
| AK | 13.1% |
| TX | 10.8% |
| KS | 10.6% |
| AL | 4.9% |
Montana and Iowa are gettable if things go well. There’s a pretty sharp drop off from there to the Georgia races, but they are still achievable if things shift D-ward by E-day and the good guys catch a couple breaks.
Bollier’s primary campaign ads focused largely on affordable health care and health insurance. Those are obviously hot-button issues right now, given the fact that laid-off people are losing their company-sponsored health insurance. Medicaid expansion has been continually voted down by the state legislature, but right next door, Missouri voters approved it in yesterday’s election. I expect that to be a major issue as well during the campaign.
And I think that there will be a ton of outside money coming in to support both sides. This is a seat that the GOP absolutely cannot afford to lose.
You may be right. But with Marshall as the Republican, if Kansas flips I would expect that Dems are sweeping races across the country.
You are both probably correct. Speaking as a native Kansan, I expect Marshall to win. But it could also be competitive, more so than any Kansas Senate race in years. When Pat Roberts was re-elected in 2014, he won by a margin of 53% to 42%. Two years later, Jerry Moran was re-elected 62% to 32%. If Bollier can pull even 45% of the vote, it could be considered a major breakthrough for the Democrats, even though it will probably be short-lived.
Nice to see that Klanker Kris Kobach lost his Kansas Senate primary.
And, in another sign that the racist messaging from Trump and buddies, about hating immigrants (while those followers in practice are killing minorities in a pandemic) is not getting much traction, ex-sheriff and felon Joe Arpaio is losing his primary in Arizona too.
As repulsive as it is to see these creatures getting the support and votes that they do get, it is comforting that the majority of voters don’t pull the lever for them. Hopefully the message will be heard throughout the GOP that the deplorable sh*t was fun for them while it lasted, it is a losing strategy.
That would indeed be nice…but even nicer if more voters repudiated this sh*t because it’s, you know, deplorable. Hey, a boy can dream.
Wouldn’t count on it. Earlier this year Republican Representative Scott Tipton lost his primary to a QAnon conspiracist. Several others have won open primaries. If the “respectable” GOP thinks that the Trumpers are just going to go gently into that good night if Trump loses they’re deluding themselves.